Saudi Arabia Economic Forecast

Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

The non-hydrocarbon Saudi economy is failing to gain steam this year, which could undermine the economic recovery expected for 2018. The non-oil PMI slid to a fresh all-time low in April, likely reflecting weaker-than-expected government spending at the outset of the year, mounting geopolitical risks and domestic uncertainty following the crackdown on corruption that affected princes, cabinet officials and businessmen in November 2017. The oil sector, however, appears to be in a good shape due to surging oil prices, which hit an over three-year high in mid-April. On 24 April, the government unveiled its privatization program, which is intended to generate around USD 11 billion in non-oil revenues by 2020. That said, the blueprint did not include a roadmap for the long-awaited privatization of 5% of Aramco, the world’s largest oil company.

Saudi Arabia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to emerge from recession this year on the back of higher oil prices, renewed public spending following years of harsh austerity and healthy global growth. Nevertheless, the acceleration will be constrained by limited oil output in compliance with the OPEC oil cap deal, instability following the anticorruption purge and persistent security threats. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect growth of 1.5% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2019, growth is seen picking up pace to 2.3%.

Saudi Arabia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.030.831.031.732.7
GDP per capita (USD)24,89224,57721,01420,145-  
GDP (USD bn)747756652639-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.73.74.11.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.26.16.82.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.67.53.6-15.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.23.15.02.1-  
Unemployment Rate5.65.85.75.6-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)6.4-2.3-14.8-12.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)2.11.65.013.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.114.62.43.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.02.42.31.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.52.72.23.5-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.002.002.002.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.753.753.753.75-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.753.753.753.75-  
Current Account (% of GDP)18.19.8-8.7-3.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)13573.7-56.7-24.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)22318444.358.4-  
Exports (USD billion)376342204182-  
Imports (USD billion)153158159124-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.2-8.9-11.6-11.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.13.30.5-22.2-  
International Reserves (USD)726732616536-  
External Debt (% of GDP)11.612.515.1-  -  

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Saudi Arabia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.490.0 %Jun 23
Bond Yield2.490.0 %Jun 23
Exchange Rate3.750.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate3.750.0 %May 21
Stock Market0.21.00 %May 21
Stock Market0.21.00 %May 21

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