Romania Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019Growth ticked up in the third quarter, although the slight acceleration was due to a surge in inventories which more than offset further cooling in consumer spending, still-falling fixed investment and a negative contribution from the external sector. In an attempt to curb the ballooning fiscal deficit, the cabinet approved a series of measures on 21 December, including a tax on banks’ assets designed to cap money market lending rates; taxes on energy and telecommunications companies; and an overhaul of the retirement system that allows Romanians, under certain conditions, to pull out of the mandatory private pension funds and switch to state management. The measures produced jittery reactions on the stock market, while analysts doubt they will bring the deficit below 3% of GDP. On the political front, the government survived a no confidence vote on 20 December, while on 1 January it took over the EU’s rotating presidency amid criticisms that the government is eroding the rule of law in the country.
Romania Economic GrowthGrowth is set to slow further this year, as the expansionary effects of fiscal stimulus wane and consumer spending continues to cool due to weakening consumer confidence and smaller wage and job gains. Moreover, although growth in fixed investment is expected to strengthen, potential capital outflows and revisions of companies’ capital investment plans due to the deteriorated and unstable legal framework cloud the outlook. Further risks stem from the country’s sizeable twin deficits and frequent clashes with the EU over the rule of law. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.4% for 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.
Romania Economy Data
5 years of Romania economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.94||0.23 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||4.16||-0.34 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||7,044||-0.59 %||Jan 30|
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Romania Economic News
April 8, 2019
A second estimate released on 8 April by the Statistical Institute (INSSE) confirmed that the economy grew 4.1% in the fourth quarter over the same period a year earlier, a notch below the third quarter’s 4.2% expansion.
April 2, 2019
At its monetary policy meeting held on 2 April, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept the policy rate unchanged at 2.50%.
March 7, 2019
A comprehensive estimate released by the National Institute of Statistics revealed the economy expanded 4.1% in the fourth quarter over the same period a year earlier, decelerating from the third quarter (Q3 2018: +4.2% year-on-year).
February 14, 2019
According to a preliminary estimate released by the National Institute of Statistics on 14 February, the economy expanded 4.1% in the fourth quarter over the same period last year, slightly decelerating from the third quarter (Q3: +4.2% year-on-year).
February 13, 2019
Industrial output dropped 0.8% in annual terms in December, contrasting November's 2.6% expansion.