Puerto Rico Economic Forecast

Puerto Rico Economic Outlook

December 4, 2018

Although economic activity increased at the fastest year-on-year pace in recent history in October, according to the Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico, this was overwhelmingly due to a low base effect following the destruction wreaked by Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Meanwhile, senators approved fiscal measures in November which include a 29% tax on non-island companies that provide services to the local government and a slight reduction in corporate tax. Although these measures await final approval by the governor, the overall effect of this legislation is expected to improve the public finances.

Puerto Rico Economic Growth

The economy is likely to grow this fiscal year due to a miserably low base effect and the stimulus received from federal disaster relief funding. Our panelists forecast that GNP will expand 4.2% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, before slowing to 2.4% in FY 2020.

Puerto Rico Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.53.53.43.4
GNP per capita (USD)19,18819,46320,01120,58521,057
GNP (USD bn)68.968.869.670.270.6
Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %)-0.1-1.8-0.8-1.3-2.4
Unemployment Rate14.014.313.011.711.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)94.297.895.191.591.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.41.5-1.30.21.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.90.9-0.3-0.20.6
Current Account (% of GDP)4.74.27.38.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)4.84.37.58.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)17.420.026.228.524.9
Exports (USD billion)62.462.569.471.971.1
Imports (USD billion)45.042.543.243.346.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.90.111.13.6-1.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.3-5.71.80.26.7

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