Portugal Economic Outlook
November 20, 2018A preliminary GDP estimate revealed that the economy lost pace in the third quarter. While a detailed breakdown of the result has yet to be released, the Statistical Institute indicated that a faster fall in exports compared to imports—largely driven by the widespread slowdown in the Eurozone—was likely behind the deterioration. On the flipside, domestic demand is expected to have been buoyant with retail sales growth in Q3 suggesting that private consumption grew at a solid, albeit more moderate, rate in the quarter. Leading indicators for Q4 point to more upbeat prospects: Although still in negative territory, consumer confidence climbed in October, which points to higher private spending. Meanwhile, business sentiment remained elevated in the month. In the first round of voting on 30 October, parliament approved the government’s 2019 draft budget, targeting the lowest deficit on record.
Portugal Economic GrowthNext year will likely see the economy expand at a healthy but weaker pace, owing to slowing domestic demand and a fall in export growth. Nevertheless, the thriving tourism sector should continue to support growth, while a tight labor market should keep private consumption growing at a solid pace, albeit dipping slightly from the previous year. Moreover, fixed investment growth is also expected to moderate amid less favorable financing conditions as the European Central Bank tightens its monetary policy stance. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to grow 1.9% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.
Portugal Economy Data
5 years of Portugal economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||1.67||-1.90 %||Dec 14|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Dec 14|
|Stock Market||4,803||-0.02 %||Dec 14|
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Portugal Economic News
November 30, 2018
Detailed national accounts data, released by the Statistical Institute on 30 November, confirmed that the economy decelerated in the third quarter due to a contraction in exports amid a wider cooling in the Eurozone.
November 30, 2018
Portugal’s industrial sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month in October, with output declining 0.3% year-on-year, matching revised September’s reading (previously reported: -0.1% year-on-year).
November 29, 2018
According to the National Statistics Institute’s (INE) survey of consumer sentiment released on 29 November, consumer confidence deteriorated markedly in November, tumbling to minus 3.4 points from minus 0.4 points in October.
November 14, 2018
According to a flash GDP estimate released by the National Statistical Institute (INE) on 14 November, the economy lost pace in the third quarter, with economic growth in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms weakening to 0.3% from an 0.6% expansion in the second quarter.
October 30, 2018
The performance of the industrial sector improved year-on-year in September, following a notable contraction in August.