Poland Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019Third-quarter growth defied expectations of an impending slowdown, matching the second quarter as domestic demand showed little sign of letting up. Fixed investment surged on the continued absorption of EU-linked structural funding, and household spending remained upbeat in light of strong earnings and low unemployment. Notably, inflation hovered below-target through the quarter despite the expansion. Available fourth-quarter data, however, suggests that economic growth may be decelerating. Survey-based data from the manufacturing sector slid through the better part of last year and, most recently, purchasing activity signaled a downturn in November and December. This would appear to align industrial metrics with the recent Eurozone pullback, which has hit export orders and is likely to continue doing so over the short-term. Consumers, on the other hand, have so far been spared and look set to continue driving economic gains; the labor market tightened through November and retail sales thus far appear unscathed.
Poland Economic GrowthAn uncertain global backdrop and the late-stage business cycle are expected to taper growth this year. Domestically, household spending and fixed investment are seen moderating as employment gains slow and borrowing costs eventually rise, respectively. On the external front, a Eurozone slowdown and, more broadly, weaker growth overseas will weigh on activity. Politically, election-year spending risks stretching the fiscal deficit and perennial squabbling between Warsaw and Brussels, as well as the 2021–2027 EU budget, are bruising long-term economic prospects. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 3.7% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
Poland Economy Data
5 years of Poland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
|Bond Yield||2.77||-0.30 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||3.73||-0.53 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||59,849||-1.13 %||Jan 30|
Request a Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
Poland Economic News
April 18, 2019
Industrial output grew 5.6% year-on-year in March, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
April 17, 2019
According to data released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), consumer prices rose 0.3% month-on-month in March, following February’s 0.4% jump.
April 4, 2019
As widely expected by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low 1.50% at its 2–3 April monetary policy meeting.
April 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, increased to 48.7 points in March (February: 47.6 points).
March 25, 2019
Manufacturing-sector business confidence lost some ground in March, according to the business tendency indicators released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).