Poland Economic Outlook
September 4, 2018The economy broadly kept pace in the second quarter, recording another period of solid growth. Household spending once again drove the expansion, riding on the back of a tight labor market. However, although surging exports partly offset the slowdown, fixed investment growth moderated in Q2. More recent data for the third quarter points to continued healthy, but decelerating, momentum: Industrial output accelerated, and the unemployment rate remained at a multi-year low in July. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI fell sharply in August. On the political front, the government is working on the budget for 2019 and approved a preliminary draft on 21 August. The draft envisions a fiscal balance of 1.8% of GDP despite an expected slowdown in economic growth. The budget centers on several social spending initiatives, including the government’s 500-plus child benefit scheme, while better tax collection should help buttress revenues. In addition, recent media reports have suggested that the government may introduce an exit tax on assets moved abroad to bolster finances, although this could ultimately reduce foreign investment in the country.
Poland Economic GrowthStrong household spending and robust government spending ahead of next year’s elections should fuel healthy growth going forward. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 4.5% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2019.
Poland Economy Data
5 years of Poland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.23||-0.30 %||Sep 20|
|Exchange Rate||3.64||-0.53 %||Sep 20|
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Poland Economic News
September 3, 2018
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, fell from 52.9 in July to 51.4 in August, the worst reading in nearly two years.
August 31, 2018
According to a flash estimate released by Statistics Poland, consumer prices were unchanged on a month-on-month basis in August, following July’s 0.2% decrease.
August 31, 2018
Comprehensive data released by the Statistical Office on 31 August confirmed that Poland’s economy continued to grow at a brisk pace in the second quarter.
August 24, 2018
Nominal retail sales rose 9.3% from the same month a year earlier in July, decelerating from June’s 11.3% year-on-year expansion.
August 20, 2018
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), industrial production expanded 11.3% in July over the same month a year prior, accelerating from June’s 6.8% reading on solid gains across the utilities supply.