Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

September 4, 2018

The economy broadly kept pace in the second quarter, recording another period of solid growth. Household spending once again drove the expansion, riding on the back of a tight labor market. However, although surging exports partly offset the slowdown, fixed investment growth moderated in Q2. More recent data for the third quarter points to continued healthy, but decelerating, momentum: Industrial output accelerated, and the unemployment rate remained at a multi-year low in July. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI fell sharply in August. On the political front, the government is working on the budget for 2019 and approved a preliminary draft on 21 August. The draft envisions a fiscal balance of 1.8% of GDP despite an expected slowdown in economic growth. The budget centers on several social spending initiatives, including the government’s 500-plus child benefit scheme, while better tax collection should help buttress revenues. In addition, recent media reports have suggested that the government may introduce an exit tax on assets moved abroad to bolster finances, although this could ultimately reduce foreign investment in the country.

Poland Economic Growth

Strong household spending and robust government spending ahead of next year’s elections should fuel healthy growth going forward. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 4.5% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2019.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield3.23-0.30 %Sep 20
Exchange Rate3.64-0.53 %Sep 20
Stock Market58,232-1.13 %Sep 20

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