Poland Economic Outlook
October 30, 2018High-frequency data has hinted at ebbing momentum in recent weeks, an about-face for the economy on the heels of two of the strongest outturns of the past decade in the first two quarters of the year. Employment gains and wage growth have each slowed in recent months. Moreover, industrial output metrics throughout the third quarter, along with recent survey-based data, point to a slowdown in the manufacturing and construction sectors, which could thwart the anticipated recovery of fixed investment through the remainder of the year. Reflecting the economy’s strong fundamentals and the Law and Justice (PiS) government’s sound fiscal policy in recent years, in mid-October, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Poland’s credit rating back to A-. That said, popular support for these policies was put to the test in 21 October’s regional elections in which PiS narrowly gained seats but, overall, lost enthusiasm among voters; the vote was an important litmus test ahead of next year’s general elections.
Poland Economic GrowthPoland’s growth spurt is set to moderate next year in line with the maturing business cycle. Household-spending growth is expected to slow amid tapering labor-market gains, while fixed investment should continue benefiting from low interest rates and the absorption of EU structural funds. Short-term downside risks include fiscal slippage ahead of next year’s vote, whereas uncertainty over the 2021–2027 EU budget hangs over the long-term outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
Poland Economy Data
5 years of Poland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.24||-0.30 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||3.78||-0.53 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||56,329||-1.13 %||Nov 15|
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Poland Economic News
October 30, 2018
In what was seen as a bellwether for next year’s general elections, the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) narrowly gained local-council seats in regional elections across Poland on 21 October.
October 19, 2018
Nominal retail sales rose 5.6% from the same month a year earlier in September, down sharply from August’s 9.0% year-on-year expansion.
October 19, 2018
In October, the business tendency indicators released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) showed a decline in business confidence in the manufacturing sector.
October 17, 2018
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), industrial production expanded 2.8% in September over the same month a year prior, easing from August’s 5.0% reading on weaker gains in manufacturing.
October 4, 2018
As widely expected by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low 1.50% at its 2–3 October monetary policy meeting.