Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

Third-quarter growth defied expectations of an impending slowdown, matching the second quarter as domestic demand showed little sign of letting up. Fixed investment surged on the continued absorption of EU-linked structural funding, and household spending remained upbeat in light of strong earnings and low unemployment. Notably, inflation hovered below-target through the quarter despite the expansion. Available fourth-quarter data, however, suggests that economic growth may be decelerating. Survey-based data from the manufacturing sector slid through the better part of last year and, most recently, purchasing activity signaled a downturn in November and December. This would appear to align industrial metrics with the recent Eurozone pullback, which has hit export orders and is likely to continue doing so over the short-term. Consumers, on the other hand, have so far been spared and look set to continue driving economic gains; the labor market tightened through November and retail sales thus far appear unscathed.

Poland Economic Growth

An uncertain global backdrop and the late-stage business cycle are expected to taper growth this year. Domestically, household spending and fixed investment are seen moderating as employment gains slow and borrowing costs eventually rise, respectively. On the external front, a Eurozone slowdown and, more broadly, weaker growth overseas will weigh on activity. Politically, election-year spending risks stretching the fiscal deficit and perennial squabbling between Warsaw and Brussels, as well as the 2021–2027 EU budget, are bruising long-term economic prospects. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 3.7% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield2.77-0.30 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate3.73-0.53 %Jan 30
Stock Market59,849-1.13 %Jan 30

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