Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

June 5, 2018

Comprehensive national accounts data for the first quarter confirmed that the economy accelerated from an already robust fourth quarter last year. Domestically, resilient consumption dynamics were met with a jump in fixed capital outlays—bolstered by greater EU-funded infrastructure investment—and higher inventories. Externally, exports and imports each moderated as decelerating growth in the EU hit foreign trade. Meanwhile, available data for the second quarter has been erratic; while the unemployment rate continued falling in April, growth in retail sales tanked. Moreover, stronger industrial output in the month was met with mixed survey-based data. Concerns over the upcoming 2021–27 EU budget continued mounting in May as Polish officials rebuffed the bloc’s proposals to reallocate more than a quarter of the country’s cohesion funding, threatening to delay passing any blocwide budget into next year.

Poland Economic Growth

Domestic demand is expected to again buoy growth this year. A tighter labor market and robust wage growth will underpin consumer spending, while fixed investment will benefit from EU-linked funding inflows, upbeat business sentiment and a nascent construction boom. Export growth, meanwhile, is set to moderate somewhat. Furthermore, and despite stronger government revenues, election-related fiscal slippage ahead of next year’s vote is likely to widen the deficit. Growing uncertainty over the next EU budget is hanging over the long-term outlook. Analysts expect growth of 4.2% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2019.

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.19-0.30 %Jun 19
Bond Yield3.19-0.30 %Jun 19
Exchange Rate3.72-0.53 %Jun 19
Exchange Rate3.72-0.53 %Jun 19
Stock Market55,912-1.13 %Jun 19
Stock Market55,912-1.13 %Jun 19

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