Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

Economic growth slowed to a three-year low in the third quarter, but grew at a healthy pace nonetheless. A slowdown in private consumption reflected households’ loss in discretionary income caused by near-decade high inflation throughout the quarter and a contraction in remittance inflows growth in August. The government’s massive infrastructure overhaul continued to power robust government spending and fixed investment growth, which grew at double-digit rates in Q3. On the downside, the investment program is putting pressure on the external economy as imports skyrocketed in Q3, outpacing exports for the third consecutive quarter. Moving into Q4, business conditions improved in the manufacturing sector in October. Meanwhile, in other news, the country failed to receive bids from Thailand and Vietnam for a 203,000-ton import tender of rice in early November. As the world’s top importer of the grain, possible tighter supply could stoke inflationary pressures.

Philippines Economic Growth

The economy is projected to continue growing at a brisk pace over the medium-term. Domestic demand should remain the key driver of growth, propelled by sizeable infrastructure spending and a tighter labor market. Nonetheless, a weaker external position and negative spillovers from a protracted U.S.-China trade dispute could cast a shadow over growth prospects. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growth of 6.4% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in 2020.

Philippines Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)98.299.9112113115
GDP per capita (USD)2,7682,8492,8812,9532,978
GDP (USD bn)272285293305314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.16.16.16.96.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.65.66.37.15.9
Investment (annual variation in %)11.87.216.926.19.5
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)11.38.35.77.18.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.72.71.22.33.5
Unemployment Rate7.16.86.35.55.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.6-0.9-2.4-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.245.444.742.142.1
Money (annual variation in %)33.511.59.113.311.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.81.90.72.22.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.63.60.71.32.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.62.7-3.91.14.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.504.004.003.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)1.322.8-3.9-1.625.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.3944.7946.9349.6050.01
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)42.4644.1145.5347.5050.11
Current Account (% of GDP)4.23.82.5-0.4-0.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.411.87.3-1.2-2.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.7-3.3-12.2-26.7-30.0
Exports (USD billion)56.762.158.857.462.9
Imports (USD billion)62.465.471.184.192.9
Exports (annual variation in %)8.89.5-5.3-2.49.5
Imports (annual variation in %)0.54.88.718.411.4
International Reserves (USD)83.279.580.780.781.6
External Debt (% of GDP)28.927.326.524.523.3

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Philippines Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.12-4.11 %Dec 11
Exchange Rate52.860.02 %Dec 11
Stock Market7,3480.66 %Dec 11

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