Philippines Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019The economy likely ended 2018 on a strong note, with Q4’s average PMI print posting the strongest quarterly result of the year and cash remittances sustaining solid growth in October and November. Nevertheless, the trade deficit remained elevated near a record high in November, as exports contracted on a drop in electronic parts shipments. Momentum will likely be broadly stable in Q1, despite tighter monetary conditions, as falling inflation supports household spending. On the political front, a government impasse over the 2019 general budget that caused lawmakers to miss the deadline to pass it could weigh on growth in the quarter, as the stalemate has put infrastructure projects and a government employee pay hike on hold. Moreover, a ban on infrastructure projects ahead of elections in May will also likely dampen government spending in H1.
Philippines Economic GrowthThe economic outlook for 2019 remains promising thanks to a thriving domestic economy. Solid household spending, fueled by remittances, and strong investment, which should be driven in part by the government’s infrastructure program, should underpin domestic demand. However, if the government budget standoff drags on, H1 growth could be hampered significantly. Moreover, sharp import demand caused by the government’s infrastructure push and looser import quotas is expected to keep the current account balance in the red. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 6.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% again in 2020.
Philippines Economy Data
5 years of Philippines economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.49||-4.11 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||52.16||0.02 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||7,980||0.66 %||Jan 30|
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Philippines Economic News
April 15, 2019
Cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) totaled USD 2.3 billion in February, which was a 1.5% increase from the same month a year prior.
April 11, 2019
Merchandise exports continued to slump in February, contracting 0.9% year-on-year, although improved somewhat from the downwardly revised 6.7% contraction recorded in January (previously reported: -1.7% year-on-year). The decline in February was largely driven by a continued drop in manufacturing exports with sharp falls in shipments of metal components: gold; and machinery and transport equipment.
April 5, 2019
Consumer prices came in flat over the prior month in March, down from the 0.2% increase logged in February.
Philippines: Momentum in the manufacturing sector wanes in March; business sentiment hits lowest level in survey history
April 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Markit, edged down to 51.5 points in March from 51.9 points in February, which marked a seven-month low for the survey.
March 21, 2019
At its 21 March monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP) left the overnight reverse repurchase facility (RRP) on hold at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations.