Paraguay Economic Forecast

Paraguay Economic Outlook

August 7, 2018

Available data points to a promising second quarter on the heels of an investment- and export-led slowdown in the first quarter. Economic activity grew at an over one-year high in April and remained elevated in May, led by robust growth in the services sector, and solid construction and manufacturing output growth. Private credit growth shot up to an over two-year high in the second quarter, likely bolstered by lower inflation and a favorable monetary policy environment, which bodes well for private sector spending in the quarter. On the external front, annual export growth strengthened throughout Q2, reaching a near 11-year high in June, largely on the back of surging soybean exports.

Paraguay Economic Growth

The economy should expand at a sturdy pace this year, against the backdrop of healthy external demand for the country’s key agricultural exports and an upbeat investment outlook. Investor confidence should be underpinned by sound fiscal policy, although poverty and corruption are likely to remain major concerns in the medium term. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in 2019.

Paraguay Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)6.66.76.86.97.0
GDP per capita (USD)4,4224,6364,0343,9924,233
GDP (USD bn)29.030.927.327.429.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)14.04.73.04.04.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.45.32.6-  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.53.81.90.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.98.82.07.911.5
Unemployment Rate7.96.55.57.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-1.1-1.7-1.5-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)14.417.620.022.824.1
Money (annual variation in %)17.57.85.88.116.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.84.23.13.94.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.75.03.14.13.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.90.15.04.2-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)11.488.969.638.577.81
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,5984,6365,7825,8485,588
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,3154,4655,2115,6835,632
Current Account (% of GDP)2.1-0.2-1.11.5-1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.6-0.1-0.30.4-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.71.00.61.40.6
Exports (USD billion)13.613.111.911.212.1
Imports (USD billion)11.912.111.39.811.5
Exports (annual variation in %)16.7-3.7-16.62.18.3
Imports (annual variation in %)7.81.1-14.6-5.117.7
International Reserves (USD)5.96.96.27.16.7
External Debt (% of GDP)54.253.459.259.6-  

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Paraguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate5,7540.18 %Aug 15

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