Pakistan Economic Forecast

Pakistan Economic Outlook

October 16, 2018

The economy is facing testing times. Although exports and inflows from remittances increased in the first three months of this fiscal year, which began in July, higher oil prices are pressuring the current account deficit. Moreover, foreign exchange reserves hit multi-year lows at the close of September and the currency fell to a record low against the U.S. dollar in early October. Against this backdrop, on 18 September the government raised import duties on 5,000 different items, hiked income taxes and scaled back tax breaks. On 8 October, the finance minister also announced that the government would seek an IMF bailout.

Pakistan Economic Growth

A slowdown is expected this fiscal year as the country grapples with economic imbalances and both fiscal and monetary policy tightening take hold. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see growth of 4.7% in FY 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.7% in FY 2020.

Pakistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)183186190194197
GDP per capita (USD)1,2671,3141,4281,4661,547
GDP (USD bn)231245271284305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.14.14.65.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.15.62.97.68.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.62.515.87.511.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.84.55.25.75.0
Unemployment Rate6.06.05.96.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-8.2-5.5-5.3-4.6-5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.662.761.865.565.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.912.612.814.513.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.98.23.23.23.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.48.64.62.94.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.0011.006.505.755.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)99.698.68111.9114.7114.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.82112.9111.4114.3114.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.1-1.3-1.0-1.7-4.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.5-3.1-2.8-4.9-12.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-15.4-16.6-17.2-18.4-26.7
Exports (USD billion)24.825.124.122.022.0
Imports (USD billion)11.241.741.311.448.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.31.1-3.9-8.80.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.53.8-0.9-2.320.6
International Reserves (USD)8.511.816.020.918.7
External Debt (% of GDP)25.025.322.724.526.2

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Pakistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield12.000.0 %Oct 16
Exchange Rate131.4-0.05 %Oct 16

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