Pakistan Economic Forecast

Pakistan Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

Economic growth likely remained strong in Fiscal Year 2018, which ends in June 2018, according to advance estimates released by the government in late April. The economy has likely gained steam on the back of a broad recovery in the agricultural sector due to improved conditions, and stronger manufacturing activity. That said, estimates reveal that the government has been unable to address structural issues such as fiscal slippage. Moreover, the current account deficit will likely deteriorate in FY 2018 due to strong domestic demand and an overvalued exchange rate. The two currency devaluations in March, however, should help boost international reserves, which fell to an over three-year low in March.

Pakistan Economic Growth

The economic outlook for next fiscal year could be negatively affected by potential political noise following July’s general election, elevated economic imbalances and lower household spending due to higher inflation. Moreover, a surge in energy prices will add pressure to the external accounts. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.8% in FY 2019 and 4.9% in FY 2020.

Pakistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)184186190194196
GDP per capita (USD)1,2601,3141,4281,466-  
GDP (USD bn)231245271284-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.14.04.7-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.15.63.27.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)2.62.514.15.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.64.75.25.8-  
Unemployment Rate6.06.05.96.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-8.2-5.5-5.3-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)65.265.164.667.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.612.812.814.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.98.23.23.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.48.64.62.9-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.0011.007.006.25-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)99.698.68111.9114.7-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.82112.9111.4114.3-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.1-1.3-1.0-1.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.5-3.1-2.7-3.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-15.4-16.6-17.2-18.4-  
Exports (USD billion)24.825.124.122.0-  
Imports (USD billion)11.241.741.311.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)0.31.1-3.9-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.53.8-0.9-2.3-  
International Reserves (USD)8.511.816.020.9-  
External Debt (% of GDP)25.025.322.724.5-  

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Pakistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.500.0 %May 21
Bond Yield8.500.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate115.8-0.05 %May 21
Exchange Rate115.8-0.05 %May 21

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