Pakistan Economic Forecast

Pakistan Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

The economy appears to be on shaky ground over halfway through the current fiscal year, which ends in July. In December, international reserves fell to the lowest level in nearly five years, covering less than three months of imports. Moreover, although the current account deficit narrowed slightly in July–November year-on-year due to higher remittance inflows, it remained high. Meanwhile, the cash-strapped government suggested on 12 January that it would not seek a financial bailout from the IMF, saying that it is exploring alternative financing options. Pakistan has secured financing from the UAE and Saudi Arabia totaling over USD 12 billion in recent months.

Pakistan Economic Growth

Growth is seen slowing this fiscal year, as Pakistan grapples with economic imbalances and remittance growth likely moderates. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see growth of 4.3% in FY 2019, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.2% in FY 2020.

Pakistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)183186190194197
GDP per capita (USD)1,2671,3141,4281,4661,547
GDP (USD bn)231245271284305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.14.14.65.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.15.62.97.68.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.62.515.87.511.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.84.55.25.75.0
Unemployment Rate6.06.05.96.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-8.2-5.5-5.3-4.6-5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.662.761.865.565.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.912.612.814.513.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.98.23.23.23.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.48.64.62.94.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)99.698.68111.9114.7114.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.0011.006.505.755.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.82112.9111.4114.3114.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.1-1.3-1.0-1.7-4.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.5-3.1-2.8-4.9-12.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-15.4-16.6-17.2-18.4-26.7
Exports (USD billion)24.825.124.122.022.0
Imports (USD billion)11.241.741.311.448.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.31.1-3.9-8.80.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.53.8-0.9-2.320.6
International Reserves (USD)8.511.816.020.918.7
External Debt (% of GDP)25.025.322.724.526.2

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Pakistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.070.0 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate139.0-0.05 %Feb 14

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