Pakistan Economic Forecast

Pakistan Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

Economic growth remains robust ahead of the crucial 25 July general election. According to preliminary estimates, economic output accelerated in FY 2018, which ended in June 2018, due to a recovery in the agricultural sector, healthy manufacturing and solid investments related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While recent polls suggest that the incumbent Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) will win the election, they also show that the PML-N will need support from other parties to form a stable government. The re-election of the PML-N would represent good news for the economy, given its pro-business stance. Moreover, the party hinted at the possibility of Pakistan joining a new IMF program.

Pakistan Economic Growth

Growth will likely slow this year due to spiraling inflation and heightened external risks. Moreover, large macroeconomic imbalances will continue to weigh on potential growth. Panelists expect growth of 4.8% in FY 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.9% in FY 2020.

Pakistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)183186190194197
GDP per capita (USD)1,2671,3141,4281,4661,547
GDP (USD bn)231245271284305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.14.14.65.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.15.62.97.68.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.62.515.87.511.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.84.55.25.75.0
Unemployment Rate6.06.05.96.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-8.2-5.5-5.3-4.6-5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.662.761.865.565.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.912.612.814.513.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.98.23.23.23.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.48.64.62.94.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.0011.006.505.755.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)99.698.68111.9114.7114.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.82112.9111.4114.3114.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.1-1.3-1.0-1.7-4.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.5-3.1-2.8-4.9-12.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-15.4-16.6-17.2-18.4-26.7
Exports (USD billion)24.825.124.122.022.0
Imports (USD billion)11.241.741.311.448.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.31.1-3.9-8.80.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.53.8-0.9-2.320.6
International Reserves (USD)8.511.816.020.918.7
External Debt (% of GDP)25.025.322.724.526.2

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Pakistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield11.000.0 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate123.7-0.05 %Aug 15

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