Pakistan Economic Forecast

Pakistan Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

The economy has had a mixed start to FY 2019, which began in July. In November, the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves were broadly steady after falling significantly in the preceding months. For its part, the large current account deficit narrowed slightly in July–October from the same period a year earlier, primarily due to higher remittances. These inflows helped outweigh a sharp rise in the merchandise import bill caused by higher oil prices. Meanwhile, security concerns were raised on 23 November when a Chinese consulate was attacked by militants.

Pakistan Economic Growth

A slowdown is expected this fiscal year as the country grapples with economic imbalances, remittances growth slows, and the government negotiates with the IMF for financial support. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see growth of 4.5% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.3% in FY 2020.

Pakistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)183186190194197
GDP per capita (USD)1,2671,3141,4281,4661,547
GDP (USD bn)231245271284305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.14.14.65.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.15.62.97.68.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.62.515.87.511.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.84.55.25.75.0
Unemployment Rate6.06.05.96.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-8.2-5.5-5.3-4.6-5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.662.761.865.565.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.912.612.814.513.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.98.23.23.23.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.48.64.62.94.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.0011.006.505.755.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)99.698.68111.9114.7114.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.82112.9111.4114.3114.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.1-1.3-1.0-1.7-4.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.5-3.1-2.8-4.9-12.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-15.4-16.6-17.2-18.4-26.7
Exports (USD billion)24.825.124.122.022.0
Imports (USD billion)11.241.741.311.448.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.31.1-3.9-8.80.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.53.8-0.9-2.320.6
International Reserves (USD)8.511.816.020.918.7
External Debt (% of GDP)25.025.322.724.526.2

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Pakistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield12.700.0 %Dec 14
Exchange Rate139.9-0.05 %Dec 14

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