Pakistan Economic Outlook
April 16, 2019The economy remains in choppy waters. The budget deficit was elevated in July-December 2018 as fiscal consolidation efforts bore little fruit, while public debt was up markedly year-on-year in February. Moreover, manufacturing output shrank sharply in January, negatively impacted by the government’s stabilization measures, while the latest data suggests the agricultural sector is struggling. More positively, the external sector has strengthened somewhat: The trade deficit has narrowed notably in the first two months of this calendar year, remittances were up markedly in July-March, while international reserves have recently picked up slightly. That said, the current account shortfall is still gaping. On the political front, negotiations with the IMF over a crucial bailout package are ongoing, and the Fund will visit the country before end-April, potentially to wrap up a deal.
Pakistan Economic GrowthThe economy is seen losing considerable steam in FY 2019 as a tighter fiscal stance, weak manufacturing and agricultural sectors, and tepid investor sentiment eat away at growth. Yawning twin deficits, low international reserves, high public debt and strained relations with India pose downside risks, while an IMF support package will be key to recouping confidence. Our panelists see growth of 4.2% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in FY 2020.
Pakistan Economy Data
5 years of Pakistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||13.29||0.0 %||Apr 12|
|Exchange Rate||141.5||-0.05 %||Apr 12|
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