Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Growth hit the brakes last year due to a contraction in oil production as Oman complied with the OPEC oil cut agreement. Although the government recorded a fiscal deficit for the ninth year running in 2017, it marked an improvement from the previous year. This was thanks to higher oil prices and less public spending, according to recent data. This year, an upturn should take hold as the government continues with its program to diversify the oil-dependent economy. On 19 April, the IMF noted that revenue-raising measures such as new excise taxes and the 2019 VAT should help bring Oman’s fiscal deficit to below 4% of GDP by the end of the decade. It warned, however, that further efforts will be needed to strengthen fiscal sustainability beyond that point.

Oman Economic Growth

This year, economic growth is set to accelerate on the back of rising production from the Khazzan gas field. Furthermore, diversification initiatives centered around non-oil exports and tourism should also prove supportive. That said, sizeable fiscal imbalances continue to cloud the outlook. Our panel forecasts growth of 2.9% for 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% for 2019.

Oman Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.73.84.04.1
GDP per capita (USD)21,93521,77318,16116,731-  
GDP (USD bn)78.880.969.766.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.42.55.7-  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.57.42.0-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)6.10.82.5-  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.1-0.14.9-  -  
Unemployment Rate7.37.217.317.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.8-3.4-18.7-26.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)4.94.99.2-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.31.00.11.1-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.001.001.19-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.390.390.390.39-  
Current Account (% of GDP)6.65.2-15.5-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.24.2-11.8-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)24.425.69.1-  -  
Exports (USD billion)56.453.535.6-  -  
Imports (USD billion)32.027.926.5-  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)8.2-5.1-33.4-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)25.0-13.0-4.7-  -  
International Reserves (USD)15.916.317.520.2-  

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Oman Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.380.06 %May 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 21

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