Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

September 4, 2018

The economy continues to be supported by higher oil prices in 2018. Although oil production remained broadly stable in January–June compared to the same period a year earlier, government revenue came in substantially higher. Meanwhile, merchandise exports increased in annual terms by nearly 30% in January–April, outstripping import growth of 9%. This broad improvement comes after the economy contracted last year following Oman’s compliance with the OPEC agreement to cut oil production. In 2017, fixed investment and government consumption decreased compared to 2016, although private consumption increased slightly. On the external front, exports of goods and services grew faster than imports, cushioning the contraction.

Oman Economic Growth

This year, increased output from the Khazzan-Makarem gas field and higher hydrocarbon prices should support a rebound in economic growth. That said, and despite recent improvements, large fiscal imbalances remain, highlighting the importance of the VAT implementation next year and ongoing economic diversification initiatives. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 3.0% for 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% again for 2019.

Oman Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.73.84.04.1
GDP per capita (USD)21,93521,78418,21416,64617,546
GDP (USD bn)78.881.068.866.772.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.31.24.75.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.05.1-0.6-0.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)12.42.41.1-0.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.25.43.2-  
Unemployment Rate17.116.415.815.816.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-1.2-19.0-26.0-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)4.94.912.831.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.31.00.11.11.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.001.001.191.95
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.390.390.390.390.39
Current Account (% of GDP)6.65.2-15.9-18.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.24.2-11.9-12.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)24.425.69.16.2-  
Exports (USD billion)56.453.535.627.5-  
Imports (USD billion)32.027.926.521.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)8.2-5.1-33.4-22.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)25.0-13.0-4.8-19.9-  
International Reserves (USD)15.916.317.520.216.1

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Oman Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.390.06 %Sep 24
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 24

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