Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

October 30, 2018

The economy continues to perform well. The value of oil and natural gas output rose significantly in January–September compared to the same period a year earlier, largely due to recent price rises. These price dynamics also fed through to both the public finances—as reflected by a lower fiscal deficit in January–August—and the external sector, as seen by the higher trade surplus in January–June. Meanwhile, economic diversification efforts made progress in October after it was announced that the sovereign wealth fund would be investing in a large tourist resort in the Jabal Al-Akhdar mountain range that is set to open by the end of 2019.

Oman Economic Growth

Increased output from the Khazzan-Makarem gas field, higher hydrocarbon prices and strong investment should support economic growth going forward. That said, the economy still faces fiscal imbalances and dependency on hydrocarbons, which represent downside risks. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 3.0% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

Oman Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.73.84.04.1
GDP per capita (USD)21,93521,78418,21416,64617,546
GDP (USD bn)78.881.068.866.772.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.31.24.75.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.05.1-0.6-0.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)12.42.41.1-0.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.25.43.2-  
Unemployment Rate17.116.415.815.816.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-1.2-19.0-26.0-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)4.94.912.831.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.31.00.11.11.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.001.001.191.95
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.390.390.390.390.39
Current Account (% of GDP)6.65.2-15.9-18.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.24.2-11.9-12.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)24.425.69.16.2-  
Exports (USD billion)56.453.535.627.5-  
Imports (USD billion)32.027.926.521.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)8.2-5.1-33.4-22.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)25.0-13.0-4.8-19.9-  
International Reserves (USD)15.916.317.520.216.1

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Oman Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.380.06 %Nov 15
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 15

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