Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

February 26, 2019

The economy performed well in 2018. Although total economic growth decelerated from 2017 due to softening domestic demand and a contraction in exports of goods and services, mainland economic growth—which excludes hydrocarbon extraction activity and related transport—accelerated to a four-year high. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to a four-year low in 2018 and the government’s fiscal standing is expected to have improved thanks to both the expanding economy and the substantial increase in average oil prices compared to 2017. Meanwhile, in the political arena, the government approved the construction of a new mine in Norway’s northern municipality of Kvalsund on 14 February despite years of opposition from the indigenous Sami population. Given the mine contains the country’s largest reserve of copper ore, its operation should eventually boost industrial production.

Norway Economic Growth

Greater investment in the hydrocarbon industry should drive economic growth in 2019. In addition, the mainland economy is likely to be supported by a tighter labor market, as well as from lower corporate tax rates. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020. In terms of mainland GDP, our panelists see growth of 2.3% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 1.9% in 2020.

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Norway Facts

Bond Yield1.62-0.65 %Mar 20
Exchange Rate8.50-0.38 %Mar 20
Stock Market886-0.08 %Mar 20

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