Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

April 30, 2019

Quarter-on-quarter economic growth appears to have decelerated in the first quarter of this year. New GDP estimates show both the total economy and mainland economy—which excludes hydrocarbon extraction activity and related transport—shrank in February from the previous month. This comes after modest growth for both economic groupings in January. Weighing on the economy was a wobbly industrial sector: Industrial output declined month-on-month in February for the fourth consecutive month. In addition, customs data reveals the merchandise trade deficit widened in Q1 over the previous quarter. More positively, the unemployment rate remained low in January, meaning household incomes likely continued to benefit from a tight labor market in Q1.

Norway Economic Growth

The economy should gain momentum this year. Greater investment in the hydrocarbon industry should drive growth, while a healthy labor market and lower corporate tax rates will also brighten prospects. However, tighter monetary policy, a slowdown in Europe and global trade tensions all cloud the economic outlook. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020. In terms of mainland GDP, our panelists see growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 1.9% in 2020.

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Norway Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.65-0.65 %May 13
Exchange Rate8.77-0.38 %May 13
Stock Market861-0.08 %May 13

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