Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

June 26, 2018

The economy returned to quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2018 and appears well positioned to maintain that momentum in Q2. In April, retail sales grew at the fastest pace in three months. This was particularly reflective of a tight labor market and rising wages, while high housing and equity prices will have also encouraged spending. By May, the market capitalization of the energy-heavy Oslo Stock Exchange was over 20% higher than 12 months earlier. This was likely due to higher Brent Crude Oil prices, which hit a three-and-a-half year high on 22 May. Meanwhile, in a boost to the long-term prospects of industrial production, parliament approved a USD 6 billion Arctic oil project in June. In the same month, however, the government extended restrictions on mortgage lending that were about to expire to the end of 2019, citing concerns about high household debt levels and the risk they pose to economic stability and employment.

Norway Economic Growth

In 2018, economic activity is expected to be supported by greater exports, particularly given high oil and gas prices. The mainland economy—which excludes petroleum activities and related ocean transport—should also benefit from rising household consumption. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect total GDP to expand 2.0% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% again in 2019. Mainland GDP is expected to grow 2.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month, and 2.2% in 2019.

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Norway Facts

Bond Yield1.74-0.65 %Jul 17
Exchange Rate8.15-0.38 %Jul 17
Stock Market871-0.08 %Jul 17

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