Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

May 21, 2019

The economy shifted into a lower gear in the first quarter of 2019, with annual growth moderating from the over-three year high logged in Q4 2018. Weaker momentum in both the non-oil segment of the economy and a further deterioration of the all-important energy sector, which contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter, led the slowdown. That said, the manufacturing PMI climbed to a five-month high in April, suggesting the economy entered Q2 on stronger footing. In other news, last month President Muhammadu Buhari signed a bill which will raise the minimum wage by over 65% to NGN 30,000 per month. Although its full implementation will take some time, this bodes well for household incomes and thus consumer demand going forward. Meanwhile, on 9 May, Buhari nominated Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele—whose current term ends in June—for a second five-year term, signaling the continuity of monetary and FX policy ahead.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Growth is expected to gather pace this year. In particular, a more accommodative monetary policy stance and stronger private consumption, which should be buoyed by the minimum wage hike, will support the non-oil segment of the economy ahead. However, the economy’s structural dependence on the oil industry and oil-price volatility will continue to cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP increasing 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.7% in 2020.

Nigeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)169174179184189
GDP per capita (USD)3,0823,3122,7662,2061,995
GDP (USD bn)522576494115376
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.56.22.8-1.60.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)21.20.5-0.4-3.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.913.40.6-6.8-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.16.0-3.4-9.4-3.6
Unemployment Rate3.74.64.37.17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.9-1.6-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.913.116.019.623.4
Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.817.81.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.08.09.618.615.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.19.015.716.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)155.2167.5196.5304.5305.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)155.3156.5192.6253.2305.3
Current Account (% of GDP)3.70.2-3.10.72.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)19.20.9-15.42.711.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)43.821.0-6.4-0.513.1
Exports (USD billion)95.182.645.934.745.8
Imports (USD billion)51.461.652.335.232.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.8-13.2-44.4-24.432.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.819.9-15.0-32.7-7.3
International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.838.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.71.72.22.85.0

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.600.0 %Jun 14
Exchange Rate306.53.08 %Jun 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jun 14

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