Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

The economy appeared to have shifted into a higher gear in the third quarter following a slowdown in the second quarter. Incoming data, however, signals that growth cooled again at the beginning of the fourth quarter. According to the Ministry of Petroleum, oil output fell in October due to an escalation of sabotage attacks on oil production facilities. In addition, the PMI dipped to a 16-month low in October as both growth in output and new orders lost momentum in the surveyed month. In the political arena, Nigeria’s two key parties—the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)— confirmed their candidates for the 2019 presidential election. President Muhammadu Buhari, who has been criticized for his economic policies—particularly over the mismanagement of the FX market and the rise in unemployment—will lead the APC against the PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, who is pitching himself as the pro-business candidate in February’s general election.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Growth is seen strengthening next year against the backdrop of rising oil production following a significant ramp-up in infrastructure investment in recent years. Moreover, softer inflation and improved exchange rate liquidity should buoy domestic demand dynamics in 2019. Political uncertainty and downside risks related to the 2019 election cloud the outlook, however. Met the why particular panelists see GDP increasing 2.6% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.0% in 2020.

Nigeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)169174179184189
GDP per capita (USD)3,0823,3122,7662,2061,995
GDP (USD bn)522576494115376
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.56.22.8-1.60.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)21.20.5-0.4-3.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.913.40.6-6.8-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.16.0-3.4-9.4-3.6
Unemployment Rate3.74.64.37.17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.9-1.6-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.913.116.019.623.4
Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.817.81.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.08.09.618.615.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.19.015.716.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)155.2167.5196.5304.5305.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)155.3156.5192.6253.2305.3
Current Account (% of GDP)3.70.2-3.10.72.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)19.20.9-15.42.711.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)43.821.0-6.4-0.513.1
Exports (USD billion)95.182.645.934.745.8
Imports (USD billion)51.461.652.335.232.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.8-13.2-44.4-24.432.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.819.9-15.0-32.7-7.3
International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.838.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.71.72.22.85.0

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.210.0 %Dec 11
Exchange Rate306.43.08 %Dec 11
Stock Market1.30.0 %Dec 04

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