Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

Available data suggests economic activity remained relatively weak in the final quarter of 2018, following a modest showing in Q3 which was propped up by higher oil production. The PMI edged down in December and brought the Q4 average below that of Q3’s, signaling waning momentum of business activity towards the end of the year. On the demand side, multi-year high unemployment in Q3 coupled with still-elevated inflationary pressures through year-end likely weighed on private consumption in Q4. This comes against the backdrop of the upcoming presidential election of 16 February which is set to be a two-horse race between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar, a businessman and former vice-president. Although both candidates take a similar stance on certain economic issues, they differ sharply over the management of the foreign exchange system and the vital oil industry. Thus, were Abubakar to win, the possibility arises that economic policy is reoriented going forward.

Nigeria Economic Growth

The economy is expected to gain traction this year, on the back of stronger household consumption and public spending. The recent slide in oil prices and announced OPEC oil output cuts pose downside risks going forward, however. Political uncertainty over the outcome of next month’s general election also clouds the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP increasing 2.4% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.9% in 2020.

Nigeria Economy Data

Population (million)169174179184189
GDP per capita (USD)3,0823,3122,7662,2061,995
GDP (USD bn)522576494115376
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)21.20.5-0.4-3.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.913.40.6-6.8-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.16.0-3.4-9.4-3.6
Unemployment Rate3.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.9-1.6-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.913.116.019.623.4
Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.817.81.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)155.2167.5196.5304.5305.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)155.3156.5192.6253.2305.3
Current Account (% of GDP)3.70.2-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)19.20.9-15.42.711.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)43.821.0-6.4-0.513.1
Exports (USD billion)95.182.645.934.745.8
Imports (USD billion)51.461.652.335.232.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.8-13.2-44.4-24.432.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.819.9-15.0-32.7-7.3
International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.838.8
External Debt (% of GDP)

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Nigeria Facts

Bond Yield14.970.0 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate307.23.08 %Jan 30
Stock Market1.20.0 %Jan 28

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