Nicaragua Economic Forecast

Nicaragua Economic Outlook

October 9, 2018

The political crisis continues to drag on the economy as tourism, investment and the financial system falter amid the political uncertainty. Consequently, economic activity contracted for the third consecutive month in July, albeit at a softer rate than in June, with the restaurants and hotels; trade; and construction sectors being particularly hard hit. Furthermore, bank deposits have fallen significantly since April, causing monetary and financial conditions to deteriorate rapidly. Compounding matters, the U.S. Congress will likely approve legislation (passed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 26 September) to implement targeted sanctions restricting institutional lending to the government, which would further dampen FDI inflows.

Nicaragua Economic Growth

While the outlook for 2019 hinges on the political situation, solid remittance inflows supported by sustained growth in the U.S. should help keep growth afloat. Remittances, however, could be hit if the U.S. ends the Temporary Protected Status program. Our panelists expect GDP to contract 1.1% in 2018 and to expand 2.1% in 2019, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Nicaragua Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.96.06.16.26.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,8471,9752,0732,1442,221
GDP (USD bn)11.011.912.613.213.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.94.84.84.74.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.84.25.25.33.8
Investment (annual variation in %)3.5-0.424.03.9-1.4
Unemployment Rate5.35.66.06.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.1-1.5-1.6-2.0-1.9
Money (annual variation in %)19.613.019.111.513.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.76.53.13.15.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.16.04.03.53.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.9813.5412.0511.4411.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD)25.3026.6027.9029.3030.80
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)24.4725.7226.5928.2629.76
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.9-7.1-9.1-7.5-5.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.2-0.8-1.1-1.0-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.3-3.2-3.5-3.7-3.6
Exports (USD billion)2.42.72.42.22.5
Imports (USD billion)5.75.95.95.96.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.111.3-9.3-8.114.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.43.10.5-0.33.5
International Reserves (USD)2.02.32.52.42.8
External Debt (% of GDP)88.485.483.683.4-  

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Nicaragua Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate32.112.11 %Oct 18

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