Nicaragua Economic Forecast

Nicaragua Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

The economy likely contracted in Q1 2019 amid the ongoing political crisis, underpinned by anemic activity in the construction, trade and services sectors. Moreover, declining bank deposits throughout Q1 suggests consumers and businesses remain pessimistic about the outlook and see no signs of the economic crisis abating. Turning to Q2, remittances rose at a solid pace in April, which should continue to support the ravaged economy. Meanwhile, international pressure on the Ortega administration could intensify in upcoming weeks, particularly if the Organization of American States votes Nicaragua is violating its democratic charter, which could disqualify the country from Inter-American Development Bank loans.

Nicaragua Economic Growth

Met the why particular panelists continue to be pessimistic about Nicaragua’s economic outlook as the political crisis drags on with no end in sight. The economy is expected to remain mired in recession this year against a backdrop of high unemployment, falling tourism, downbeat economic sentiment and a weak financial system. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to contract 5.2% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to contract 0.9% in 2020.

Nicaragua Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)1,8471,9752,0732,1442,221
GDP (USD bn)11.011.912.613.213.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)3.5-0.424.03.9-1.4
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.1-1.5-1.6-2.0-1.9
Money (annual variation in %)19.613.019.111.513.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.9813.5412.0511.4411.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD)25.3026.6027.9029.3030.80
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)24.4725.7226.5928.2629.76
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.9-7.1-9.1-7.5-5.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.2-0.8-1.1-1.0-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.3-3.2-3.5-3.7-3.6
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.111.3-9.3-8.114.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)88.485.483.683.4-  

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Nicaragua Facts

Exchange Rate32.922.11 %Jun 13

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