Nicaragua Economic Forecast

Nicaragua Economic Outlook

May 15, 2018

Political instability has rocked the country in recent weeks after protests, which began against a proposed social security reform that has since been shelved, left dozens dead. Although President Daniel Ortega has promised dialogue with business and civil society, to begin on 16 May, it remains to be seen how far the leader will go towards meeting demands for more democratic freedoms. The economic uncertainty risks dampening investment and weakening the tourism sector, which accounts for over 4% of GDP. Indeed, early signs point to a recent decline in visitor numbers. In addition, possible nationwide strikes if dialogue breaks down would restrict economic activity.

Nicaragua Economic Growth

Growth should remain robust this year thanks to strong public infrastructure investment and fiscal stimulus in the U.S., which should support remittances and exports. However, the political conflict risks dragging on growth, particularly if it becomes protracted and dialogue proves fruitless. Our panelists expect GDP to grow 4.6% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2019.

Nicaragua Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)6.16.26.16.26.4
GDP per capita (USD)1,7771,9042,0962,150-  
GDP (USD bn)11.911.812.713.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.54.64.94.7-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.24.55.35.4-  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.3-0.822.34.9-  
Unemployment Rate5.76.86.0-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.7-1.2-1.6-2.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)19.613.019.111.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.76.53.13.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.16.04.03.5-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.9812.2311.5711.15-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)25.1126.1127.9029.30-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)24.4725.7226.5928.26-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.0-7.6-9.0-8.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.2-0.9-1.1-1.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.3-3.3-3.5-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)2.42.62.42.2-  
Imports (USD billion)5.75.95.95.9-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.18.3-9.3-8.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.43.50.5-0.3-  
International Reserves (USD)2.02.32.52.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)89.786.682.582.9-  

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Nicaragua Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate31.362.11 %May 21
Exchange Rate31.362.11 %May 21

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