New Zealand Economic Forecast

New Zealand Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Economic growth accelerated in quarterly terms in Q4 2018, amid stronger domestic activity. The service industries recorded the sharpest growth in the quarter, underpinned by sturdy activity in the retail and accommodation sectors. In addition, the goods-producing sector rebounded, powered by robust construction activity. Manufacturing output, on the other hand, fell again in Q4. Meanwhile, the external sector improved; exports rebounded, while imports contracted for the second consecutive quarter. More recently, upbeat electronic card transactions in Q1 2019 point to faster household consumption at the outset of the year. In politics, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern visited Beijing on 31 March in an effort to mend diplomatic relations with New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Cooling relations with China dented tourist arrivals in Q1 and could hit export growth in the near-term.

New Zealand Economic Growth

Growth will likely moderate a tad this year, dragged by slower domestic demand as fixed investments likely ease on weak business expectations. That said, upbeat public infrastructure projects are seen supporting activity. Moreover, exports are projected to trend upward, although a volatile international backdrop clouds the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to expand 2.6% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

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New Zealand Facts

Bond Yield1.831.20 %May 13
Exchange Rate0.66-1.69 %May 13
Stock Market4,4380.11 %May 13

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