New Zealand Economic Outlook
February 19, 2019Available data suggests that growth maintained its slower momentum in the fourth quarter. Weaker household-spending gains appear to have materialized, as reflected by a rise in unemployment and dire electronic card transactions through year-end—and despite upbeat consumer sentiment and tepid inflation. In a similar vein, the external sector took a toll on growth: Weaker demand for dairy products by OECD and ASEAN countries in Q4, coupled with higher fuel prices, dragged the 12-month rolling trade deficit to an 11-year low at the end of last year. All this comes on the heels of a third quarter framed by easing domestic demand. On a brighter note, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook to positive on the prospect of a sustained fiscal surplus over the next few years.
New Zealand Economic GrowthEconomic momentum is expected to ease over the short-term, as tailwinds to growth look less synchronized. Household spending growth is likely to moderate due to a fall in immigration, at a time when the economy nears full-employment—although low inflation should cushion it somewhat. In addition, fixed investment is seen slowing due to tighter financial conditions, amid upcoming changes to bank capital requirements. Moreover, exports should also lose steam in the near-term, as a slower Chinese economy could put a dampener on demand for dairy products, New Zealand’s main export. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to expand 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
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New Zealand Facts
|Bond Yield||2.11||1.20 %||Mar 11|
|Exchange Rate||0.68||-1.69 %||Mar 11|
|Stock Market||4,156||0.11 %||Mar 11|
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New Zealand Economic News
March 1, 2019
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence indicator edged down to 120.8 in February, from January’s 121.7.
February 28, 2019
The ANZ bank business outlook indicator dipped further into pessimistic territory in February, losing more than a half of December’s gains.
February 13, 2019
At its first meeting of the year, held on 13 February, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at a record-low of 1.75%, where it has been since November 2016.
February 6, 2019
After two years of continued labor market tightening, New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose in the fourth quarter of 2018.
February 1, 2019
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence indicator inched down to 121.7 in January, from December’s 121.9.