Netherlands Economic Forecast

Netherlands Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

The strong economic momentum seen last year likely spilled over into 2018, with available data pointing to broad-based growth in the first quarter. Industrial production was robust in the first two months of the year, while strong PMI readings and business sentiment in the first quarter bode well for output figures for March. Retail sales also increased at a solid rate in January–February as private consumption was supported by declining unemployment, which came in below four percent for the first time in nine years in March. Moreover, consumer confidence remained elevated in the first quarter and inched up at the outset of the second quarter. On 25 April, Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s cabinet, which has a precarious one-seat majority, survived a skirmish with the opposition over the government’s intention to abolish the dividend tax against the advice of senior policy advisors.

Netherlands Economic Growth

Robust government expenditure, together with resilient private consumption and fixed investment growth, should drive the economy this year and next. Met the why particular panelists see growth of 2.7% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2019. Household expenditure this year will likely benefit from the government’s fiscal stimuli plans, record-low unemployment, rising wages and elevated house prices. Higher home prices should improve households’ balance sheet by lowering the number of mortgages that are heavily leveraged. However, downside risks persist due to Brexit-related uncertainty and a strong euro that could cloud the external sector’s outlook, limiting the economy’s growth potential.

Netherlands Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)16.816.916.917.017.1
GDP per capita (EUR)38,84539,31311,35341,259-  
GDP (EUR bn)653663683703-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.21.42.32.2-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.40.93.41.8-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.00.32.01.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-4.32.311.05.3-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.14.56.54.3-  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.04.28.44.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-2.9-3.32.3-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-3.91.02.31.4-  
Unemployment Rate7.37.46.96.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-2.3-2.10.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)67.767.965.262.3-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.4-0.10.50.7-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.60.30.20.1-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.3-2.0-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.05-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)17.25.64.19.4-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.21-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.33-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)9.98.98.68.5-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)64.458.958.759.6-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)46.851.044.151.8-  

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Netherlands Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.785.70 %May 17
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Stock Market570-0.57 %May 21

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