Netherlands Economic Forecast

Netherlands Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

Economic growth slowed noticeably in the third quarter following a robust expansion in the previous quarter. Weaker domestic demand and a softer contribution from the external sector led the deceleration, with private consumption growth flatlining despite lower unemployment and still-elevated consumer confidence. However, given that unemployment remained near a decade low in December and annual retail sales growth picked up pace in October-November, private consumption should have bounced back in the fourth quarter. Moreover, business confidence rose to a six-month high in December on a more upbeat outlook on expected output. Less positively, the average reading of the PMI eased in Q4 compared to Q3, while industrial output growth in October-November trended markedly below the Q3 average. Furthermore, the New Year started off on the wrong foot with consumer confidence narrowly remaining in optimistic territory in January; this will likely dent consumer spending somewhat in the early stages of 2019.

Netherlands Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to moderate this year, with Brexit-related uncertainties and lingering global trade tensions the key risks to the outlook. Domestic demand should cooldown somewhat on softer growth in investment and private expenditure; however, the government consumption is seen picking up pace. Met the why particular Consensus Forecasts panelists expect the economy to grow 1.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2020.

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Netherlands Facts

Bond Yield0.315.70 %Jan 29
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 30
Stock Market518-0.57 %Jan 30

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