Netherlands Economic Forecast

Netherlands Economic Outlook

September 25, 2018

Economic activity is likely to have maintained a robust pace in the third quarter, although it is expected to have moderated slightly from the previous quarter. Growth in industrial production and retail sales softened at the start of Q3, with industrial output growth easing to an over one-year low. In addition, business sentiment slipped in August on less rosy views on future output and order books. On a more positive note, the manufacturing PMI rose in August for the first time in six months on sharper rises in output and new orders. Moreover, the unemployment rate remained close to a near-decade low in August, while consumer confidence remained elevated at the close of the third quarter. In the political arena, on 18 September the government presented a mildly expansionary budget for next year, which should help maintain robust growth and still predicts a notable fiscal surplus.

Netherlands Economic Growth

Growth is expected to moderate somewhat in the second half of this year and next year. Robust domestic demand should drive momentum, underpinned by private consumption thanks to low unemployment levels. Meanwhile, favorable business conditions should support fixed investment growth. On the other hand, a hard Brexit poses a significant downside risk to the external sector while a possible flare-up in tensions between the EU and the U.S. would further drag on the economy. Met the why particular Consensus Forecasts panelists predict 2.7% growth for 2018 and 2.1% for 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

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Netherlands Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.585.70 %Oct 17
Exchange Rate1.150.65 %Oct 18
Stock Market524-0.57 %Oct 18

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