Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

The manufacturing sector ended 2018 on a strong footing, with the PMI rising to a seven-month high in December thanks to strong output and new orders growth. As a result, employment in the sector posted its first gains since June, leading to a reduction in capacity constraints and backlogs of work. Output expectations, however, remained underwhelming despite a boost in sentiment due to increasing new business orders. Meanwhile, plans are currently being made to set up a derivatives market in the country; this is despite a not fully operational stock market, due to a lack of investor interest. In other news, armed conflict escalated in the Rakhine state in early January, sparking fears of a secession that would no doubt hurt the economy.

Myanmar Economic Growth

Economic growth should pick up this year, partly owing to robust regional activity. However, persistent large twin deficits, the potential loss of preferential market access to the EU and conflict in the Rakhine region pose downside risks. The panel sees growth at 6.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in 2020.

Myanmar Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1801,2751,1471,2111,264
GDP (USD bn)60.165.659.563.366.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.48.07.05.96.7
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.04.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.9-4.4-2.5-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.229.934.535.734.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.111.06.85.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0011.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)983.81,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)933.6984.41,1631,2351,360
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-2.2-5.1-3.9-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)9.411.011.09.1-  
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.712.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.6-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.5-6.8-  
International Reserves (USD)8.62.03.84.64.9
External Debt (% of GDP)12.19.611.211.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.000.0 %Jan 15
Exchange Rate1,5200.0 %Jan 30

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