Myanmar Economic Outlook
October 16, 2018Recently-released data showed that the economy grew robustly in Q1 thanks to the industrial sector. However, more recent data suggests momentum has weakened somewhat. Manufacturing operating conditions worsened for the third straight month in September due to drops in output, new orders and employment, as currency weakness dragged on firms’ activity. Moreover, FDI inflows plunged in April–July while international tourist arrivals have been lackluster. In mid-September, parliament approved the budget for the 2018–19 fiscal year, which will see significant growth in government expenditure compared to the 2017–18 budget.
Myanmar Economic GrowthThe economy should expand at a brisk pace going forward, thanks to strong regional activity but downside risks are growing and include sizeable twin deficits, exposure to adverse weather conditions, and the possibility that the EU could revoke Myanmar’s preferential market access, which would hamper the external sector. The panel sees growth at 7.2% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month, and 7.3% in 2020.
Myanmar Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,180||1,275||1,147||1,211||1,264|
|GDP (USD bn)||60.1||65.6||59.5||63.3||66.5|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.4||8.0||7.0||5.9||6.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.3||-0.9||-4.4||-2.5||-3.5|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||33.2||29.9||34.5||35.7||34.7|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.7||5.1||11.0||6.8||5.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||11.00||11.00||11.00||11.00||11.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||983.8||1,032||1,304||1,358||1,362|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||933.6||984.4||1,163||1,235||1,360|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.9||-2.2||-5.1||-3.9||-5.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.9||-1.4||-3.0||-2.5||-3.5|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-0.1||-1.9||-3.8||-3.7||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.4||11.0||11.0||9.1||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||9.5||11.9||13.7||12.8||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||14.4||6.6||-0.6||-8.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||24.8||25.0||15.5||-6.8||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||8.6||2.0||3.8||4.6||4.9|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||12.1||9.6||11.2||11.2||-|
5 years of Myanmar economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
|Bond Yield||13.00||0.0 %||Aug 15|
|Exchange Rate||1,590||0.0 %||Oct 18|
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.