Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

The economy likely continues to expand at a robust pace, although the manufacturing PMI ended Q2 on a weak note, dropping to the neutral 50-point mark in June. Operating conditions in the manufacturing sector were unchanged from the previous month as growing output levels were offset by a contraction in new orders for the first time in nearly a year. Moreover, the early arrival of flooding in June could affect agricultural production in the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, the third round of talks between the government and armed rebel groups began in early June; a successful conclusion would do much to improve the security situation and entice foreign investment.

Myanmar Economic Growth

Domestic demand and strong regional economic activity should drive growth this year, although commodity price volatility and a fragile banking sector could weigh on prospects, while the slow implementation of structural reforms further clouds the outlook. Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 7.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.4% in 2019.

Myanmar Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1801,2751,1471,2111,264
GDP (USD bn)60.165.659.563.366.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.48.07.05.96.7
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.04.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.9-4.4-2.5-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.229.934.535.734.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.111.06.85.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0011.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)983.81,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)933.6984.41,1631,2351,360
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-2.2-5.1-3.9-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)9.411.011.09.1-  
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.712.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.6-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.5-6.8-  
International Reserves (USD)8.62.03.84.64.9
External Debt (% of GDP)12.19.611.211.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.000.0 %Jun 15
Exchange Rate1,4700.0 %Aug 07

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