Myanmar Economic Outlook
July 17, 2018The economy likely continues to expand at a robust pace, although the manufacturing PMI ended Q2 on a weak note, dropping to the neutral 50-point mark in June. Operating conditions in the manufacturing sector were unchanged from the previous month as growing output levels were offset by a contraction in new orders for the first time in nearly a year. Moreover, the early arrival of flooding in June could affect agricultural production in the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, the third round of talks between the government and armed rebel groups began in early June; a successful conclusion would do much to improve the security situation and entice foreign investment.
Myanmar Economic GrowthDomestic demand and strong regional economic activity should drive growth this year, although commodity price volatility and a fragile banking sector could weigh on prospects, while the slow implementation of structural reforms further clouds the outlook. Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 7.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.4% in 2019.
Myanmar Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,180||1,275||1,147||1,211||1,264|
|GDP (USD bn)||60.1||65.6||59.5||63.3||66.5|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.4||8.0||7.0||5.9||6.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.3||-0.9||-4.4||-2.5||-3.5|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||33.2||29.9||34.5||35.7||34.7|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.7||5.1||11.0||6.8||5.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||11.00||11.00||11.00||11.00||11.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||983.8||1,032||1,304||1,358||1,362|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||933.6||984.4||1,163||1,235||1,360|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.9||-2.2||-5.1||-3.9||-5.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.9||-1.4||-3.0||-2.5||-3.5|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-0.1||-1.9||-3.8||-3.7||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.4||11.0||11.0||9.1||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||9.5||11.9||13.7||12.8||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||14.4||6.6||-0.6||-8.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||24.8||25.0||15.5||-6.8||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||8.6||2.0||3.8||4.6||4.9|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||12.1||9.6||11.2||11.2||-|
5 years of Myanmar economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||13.00||0.0 %||Jun 15|
|Exchange Rate||1,470||0.0 %||Aug 07|
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