Myanmar Economic Outlook
November 13, 2018Following robust economic growth in the first quarter that should have spilled over into Q2, the economy seems to be faring less well in the second half of the year. The average reading of the manufacturing PMI in the third quarter came in markedly below the crucial 50-point threshold, and the contraction in the sector continued in October on drops in output and new orders. On a more positive note, in early October the Mekong-Japan summit was held in Tokyo, which should translate into greater Japanese investment along Myanmar’s stretch of the Mekong river going forward.
Myanmar Economic GrowthEconomic growth is expected to pick up next year and the year after on the back of robust regional activity. The country’s sizeable twin deficits, exposure to adverse weather and the potential loss of preferential market access to the EU, however, cloud the outlook. The panel sees growth at 7.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.3% in 2020.
Myanmar Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,180||1,275||1,147||1,211||1,264|
|GDP (USD bn)||60.1||65.6||59.5||63.3||66.5|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.4||8.0||7.0||5.9||6.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.3||-0.9||-4.4||-2.5||-3.5|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||33.2||29.9||34.5||35.7||34.7|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.7||5.1||11.0||6.8||5.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||11.00||11.00||11.00||11.00||11.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||983.8||1,032||1,304||1,358||1,362|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||933.6||984.4||1,163||1,235||1,360|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.9||-2.2||-5.1||-3.9||-5.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.9||-1.4||-3.0||-2.5||-3.5|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-0.1||-1.9||-3.8||-3.7||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.4||11.0||11.0||9.1||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||9.5||11.9||13.7||12.8||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||14.4||6.6||-0.6||-8.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||24.8||25.0||15.5||-6.8||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||8.6||2.0||3.8||4.6||4.9|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||12.1||9.6||11.2||11.2||-|
5 years of Myanmar economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||13.00||0.0 %||Oct 15|
|Exchange Rate||1,574||0.0 %||Dec 11|
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