Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

October 16, 2018

Recently-released data showed that the economy grew robustly in Q1 thanks to the industrial sector. However, more recent data suggests momentum has weakened somewhat. Manufacturing operating conditions worsened for the third straight month in September due to drops in output, new orders and employment, as currency weakness dragged on firms’ activity. Moreover, FDI inflows plunged in April–July while international tourist arrivals have been lackluster. In mid-September, parliament approved the budget for the 2018–19 fiscal year, which will see significant growth in government expenditure compared to the 2017–18 budget.

Myanmar Economic Growth

The economy should expand at a brisk pace going forward, thanks to strong regional activity but downside risks are growing and include sizeable twin deficits, exposure to adverse weather conditions, and the possibility that the EU could revoke Myanmar’s preferential market access, which would hamper the external sector. The panel sees growth at 7.2% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month, and 7.3% in 2020.

Myanmar Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1801,2751,1471,2111,264
GDP (USD bn)60.165.659.563.366.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.48.07.05.96.7
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.04.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.9-4.4-2.5-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.229.934.535.734.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.111.06.85.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0011.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)983.81,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)933.6984.41,1631,2351,360
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-2.2-5.1-3.9-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)9.411.011.09.1-  
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.712.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.6-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.5-6.8-  
International Reserves (USD)8.62.03.84.64.9
External Debt (% of GDP)12.19.611.211.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.000.0 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate1,5900.0 %Oct 18

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