Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

The economy remains in good shape, with manufacturing PMI data pointing to a strong start to the second quarter of the calendar year. In April, the PMI reached the highest level in the survey’s history on the back of robust growth in output and new orders, while inflationary pressures are seemingly easing. However, employment growth moderated in the month, and business confidence dipped to a six-month low. To improve the country’s attractiveness to foreign investment amid the ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis, the government opened the country’s retail and wholesale trade sector to foreign companies in early May. However, certain limitations remain in place, including financial restrictions.

Myanmar Economic Growth

This year, the economy should benefit from strong household consumption thanks to increases in the minimum wage, and solid public investment. However, higher labor costs carry the risk of decreasing the country’s competitiveness in the manufacturing sector compared to its regional neighbors in the longer term. Met the why particular Consensus Forecasts panelists expect GDP growth of 7.1% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points last month’s forecast, and 7.3% in 2019.

Myanmar Economy Data

Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1801,2751,1471,2111,264
GDP (USD bn)60.165.659.563.366.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate4.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.9-4.4-2.5-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.229.934.535.734.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0011.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)983.81,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)933.6984.41,1631,2351,360
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-2.2-5.1-3.9-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)9.411.011.09.1-  
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.712.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.6-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.5-6.8-  
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)12.19.611.211.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

Bond Yield13.000.0 %May 15
Exchange Rate1,3580.0 %Jun 14

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