Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

February 19, 2019

The economy is likely to have grown at a similar rate in 2018 compared to 2017, supported by strong agricultural output growth. Turning to 2019, operating conditions in the manufacturing sector improved for the third month in a row in January thanks to solid rises in output and new orders, primarily from domestic firms. Despite this, sentiment among businesses remained subdued, while violence and the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine state, which flared up again in early February, could hurt tourism and FDI. In a bid to boost investment and liquidity, the Central Bank recently announced it would allow foreign banks to take up to a 35% stake in domestic banks.

Myanmar Economic Growth

Growth should be robust going forward, although the slowdown in China could drag on activity. The potential loss of preferential market access to the EU, persistent twin deficits and the resurgence of violence in the Rakhine state pose further downside risks to the outlook. The panel sees growth at 6.7% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.1% in 2020.

Myanmar Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1801,2751,1471,2111,264
GDP (USD bn)60.165.659.563.366.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.48.07.05.96.7
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.04.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.9-4.4-2.5-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.229.934.535.734.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.111.06.85.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0011.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)983.81,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)933.6984.41,1631,2351,360
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-2.2-5.1-3.9-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)9.411.011.09.1-  
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.712.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.6-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.5-6.8-  
International Reserves (USD)8.62.03.84.64.9
External Debt (% of GDP)12.19.611.211.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.000.0 %Jan 15
Exchange Rate1,5320.0 %Feb 19

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