Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

Following robust economic growth in the first quarter that should have spilled over into Q2, the economy seems to be faring less well in the second half of the year. The average reading of the manufacturing PMI in the third quarter came in markedly below the crucial 50-point threshold, and the contraction in the sector continued in October on drops in output and new orders. On a more positive note, in early October the Mekong-Japan summit was held in Tokyo, which should translate into greater Japanese investment along Myanmar’s stretch of the Mekong river going forward.

Myanmar Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to pick up next year and the year after on the back of robust regional activity. The country’s sizeable twin deficits, exposure to adverse weather and the potential loss of preferential market access to the EU, however, cloud the outlook. The panel sees growth at 7.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.3% in 2020.

Myanmar Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1801,2751,1471,2111,264
GDP (USD bn)60.165.659.563.366.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.48.07.05.96.7
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.04.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.9-4.4-2.5-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.229.934.535.734.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.111.06.85.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0011.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)983.81,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)933.6984.41,1631,2351,360
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-2.2-5.1-3.9-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)9.411.011.09.1-  
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.712.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.6-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.5-6.8-  
International Reserves (USD)8.62.03.84.64.9
External Debt (% of GDP)12.19.611.211.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.000.0 %Oct 15
Exchange Rate1,5740.0 %Dec 11

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