Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

September 18, 2018

Preliminary GDP data revealed that economic activity remained relatively subdued in Q2, albeit was slightly stronger than at the outset of the year. Annual growth inched up from 3.2% in Q1 to 3.4% in Q2, largely on the back of higher activity in the mining and agricultural sectors. The external position, however, deteriorated in Q2 as the current account deficit almost doubled from the same period a year earlier due to a widening trade deficit. Additionally, FDI inflows more than halved on an annual basis given lower investment in extractive industries. Meanwhile, survey data suggests a soft start to Q3 as business confidence weakened in July from Q2, reflecting firms’ more downbeat sentiment over employment conditions ahead.

Mozambique Economic Growth

Growth next year should be supported by easing of monetary conditions and favorable external demand for coal and aluminum—Mozambique’s key export commodities. A high public debt burden, however, will continue to cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy will expand 3.3% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Mozambique Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.527.228.028.829.5
GDP per capita (USD)609637552382-  
GDP (USD bn)16.117.315.511.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.17.46.63.83.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.94.74.95.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)53.224.0-22.8-29.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-11.7-7.2-6.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.162.488.1119-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.911.623.75.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.32.63.619.915.1
Standing Lending Facility (%, eop)8.37.59.823.320.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.0031.6045.0071.2058.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.9130.6938.2862.5763.43
Current Account (% of GDP)-39.1-33.5-38.6-35.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.3-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-4.1-4.2-1.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)4.13.93.43.34.7
Imports (USD billion)8.58.07.64.75.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.1-4.9-12.8-2.942.4
Imports (annual variation in %)7.6-5.9-5.0-38.211.6
International Reserves (USD)3.02.92.21.73.1
External Debt (% of GDP)49.050.164.793.7-  

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Mozambique Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate60.550.48 %Sep 24
Stock Market0.20.0 %Sep 24

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