Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

The powerful Cyclone Idai that hit Mozambique last month has created a major humanitarian emergency. Nearly 2 million people were affected, over 600 have been reported dead and hundreds of thousands are currently in desperate need of food, water and shelter. Although it is still too early to accurately determine the macroeconomic effects and reconstruction costs of the storm, these are set to be enormous. Meanwhile, the IMF concluded its Article IV mission in late-March, stating it will consider emergency financial assistance under its Rapid Credit Facility to respond to the disaster. On the economy, it also highlighted the need for fiscal consolidation to reduce bulky public debt and recommended authorities to rely as much as possible on grants and cheap concessional loans to finance the budget.

Mozambique Economic Growth

After logging the weakest expansion in nearly two decades in 2018, the economy is seen gaining traction this year mainly on the back of strong investment activity. That said, a widening current account deficit and deteriorating fiscal metrics pose downside risks to the outlook. In addition, the likely adverse economic impact of the cyclone will weigh on near-term prospects. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 3.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2020.

Mozambique Economy Data

Population (million)26.527.228.028.829.5
GDP per capita (USD)609637552382-  
GDP (USD bn)16.117.315.511.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)53.224.0-22.8-29.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-11.7-7.2-6.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.162.488.1119-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.911.623.75.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.0031.6045.0071.2058.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.9130.6938.2862.5763.43
Current Account (% of GDP)-39.1-33.5-38.6-35.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.3-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-4.1-4.2-1.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)5.1-4.9-12.8-2.942.4
Imports (annual variation in %)7.6-5.9-5.0-38.211.6
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)  

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Mozambique Facts

Exchange Rate64.130.48 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Apr 12

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