Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

Available data indicates that weak dynamics in the third quarter of 2018 carried over into Q4. Economic activity remained broadly in line with Q3’s average in October and while business confidence recovered from a one-year low in November, its Q4 average will likely be lower than Q3’s—both pointing to subdued private sector activity. In other news, Mozambique’s ex-finance minister Manuel Chang and three former Credit Suisse bankers were recently arrested on U.S. charges over a USD 2.0 billion fraud scheme involving state-owned firms in 2013–16, which threw the country into a debt crisis after the hidden loans’ disclosure in 2016 prompted the IMF and other donors to freeze funding. The case is significant as it could open the possibility of obtaining more favorable terms in debt restructuring negotiations.

Mozambique Economic Growth

Growth is expected to pick up this year, primarily on the back of stronger capital spending. The government’s hefty debt load continues to darken the outlook, however. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.8% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.3% in 2020.

Mozambique Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.527.228.028.829.5
GDP per capita (USD)609637552382-  
GDP (USD bn)16.117.315.511.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.17.46.63.83.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.94.74.95.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)53.224.0-22.8-29.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-11.7-7.2-6.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.162.488.1119-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.911.623.75.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.32.63.619.915.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.0031.6045.0071.2058.53
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.9130.6938.2862.5763.43
Current Account (% of GDP)-39.1-33.5-38.6-35.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.3-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-4.1-4.2-1.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)4.13.93.43.34.7
Imports (USD billion)8.58.07.64.75.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.1-4.9-12.8-2.942.4
Imports (annual variation in %)7.6-5.9-5.0-38.211.6
International Reserves (USD)3.02.92.21.73.1
External Debt (% of GDP)49.050.164.793.7-  

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Mozambique Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate62.340.48 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 14

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