Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

September 4, 2018

Economic momentum appears to have been relatively steady in Q2 and in the first month of Q3 thanks to resilient external demand—notably for phosphate and automotive products—and a robust showing of the agricultural sector following a record harvest. However, while tourism growth remained solid, investment likely moderated as FDI inflows fell over a third in H1. Furthermore, consumers remain pessimistic due to persistently high unemployment. This pessimism combined with an ongoing consumer boycott targeting food companies likely limited consumption growth in Q2 and fueled social unrest.

Morocco Economic Growth

Growth should moderate this year, although the record harvest of the agricultural sector—which employs a third of the workforce—and healthy tourism inflows will support private spending. Recent reforms to attract foreign investment might further boost growth in the medium-term. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.3% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2019.

Morocco Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.433.834.134.534.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,1433,3462,9763,0123,119
GDP (USD bn)115113112114119
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.52.74.51.24.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.23.12.33.44.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.5-1.30.29.3-0.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.91.31.62.12.6
Unemployment Rate9.29.79.69.99.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-4.7-4.2-4.0-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.763.463.764.764.5
Money (annual variation in %)2.75.07.06.37.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.41.60.61.81.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.90.41.61.60.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.002.502.502.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.169.069.9211.129.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.418.419.759.819.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.9-5.7-2.1-4.2-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.5-6.6-2.2-4.4-3.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-23.6-21.2-14.7-17.8-18.2
Exports (USD billion)22.020.518.718.921.4
Imports (USD billion)45.641.733.436.739.6
Exports (annual variation in %)2.9-7.0-8.91.313.1
Imports (annual variation in %)1.8-8.7-19.89.88.0
International Reserves (USD)18.820.222.725.026.1
External Debt (% of GDP)37.938.843.145.548.1

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Morocco Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.700.0 %Jul 31
Exchange Rate9.36-0.29 %Sep 20
Stock Market11,199-0.23 %Sep 20

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