Montenegro Economic Forecast

Montenegro Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

The economy likely finished 2018 on a strong note, following the third quarter’s robust performance. Industrial production gained steam in Q4 on surging electricity and gas supply, and a pick-up in manufacturing output. Meanwhile, upbeat retail sales in October and November bode well for private consumption in Q4, while tourism was strong overall in the quarter, despite a slip in overnight stays in December. Conversely, merchandise exports declined year-on-year in December—following a surge in November—although a contraction in imports caused the goods trade deficit to narrow marginally.

Montenegro Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to slow in 2019, partly due to softer infrastructure investment, especially as the Bar-Bojare Highway nears completion. Nevertheless, several key energy projects should continue to drive growth. Imports for infrastructure projects are expected to drag on the external sector, however. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 2.9% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% again in 2020.

Montenegro Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.60.60.60.60.6
GDP per capita (USD)7,1917,3866,5207,0237,683
GDP per capita (EUR)5,4155,5595,8756,3476,800
GDP (USD bn)4.54.64.14.44.8
GDP (EUR bn)3.43.53.74.04.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.51.83.42.94.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.7-11.59.2-3.6-4.3
Unemployment Rate19.518.017.617.717.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-1.3-8.3-3.5-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.259.966.264.465.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.3-0.31.40.91.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.05-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.11-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.5-15.2-13.2-18.1-18.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.3-1.4-1.5-1.7-1.9
Imports (EUR billion)1.71.71.82.02.2
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-9.8-9.08.07.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.70.63.212.211.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.50.70.80.9
International Reserves (USD)0.60.70.70.81.0
External Debt (% of GDP)68.557.365.661.9-  

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Montenegro Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Feb 14

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