Montenegro Economic Forecast

Montenegro Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

The economy appears to have performed well in Q2, carrying over the strong growth from the preceding quarter. Industrial production rebounded in June from May’s soft print, expanding over 30% in year-on-year terms on higher electricity output. Exports expanded at a double-digit rate in January–June on higher demand for manufactured goods and energy products from neighboring countries such as Serbia, while retail sales grew at a healthy pace in May. On the political scene, the EU and Montenegro initiated a new round of negotiations for EU membership in late June. Montenegro is among the Balkan countries closest to joining the EU, but further progress in key areas such as institutional quality is required for it to join the Union.

Montenegro Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to decelerate this year and next, weighed down by the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 3.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2019.

Montenegro Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.60.60.60.60.6
GDP per capita (USD)7,1917,3866,5207,0237,683
GDP per capita (EUR)5,4155,5595,8756,3476,800
GDP (USD bn)4.54.64.14.44.8
GDP (EUR bn)3.43.53.74.04.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.51.83.42.94.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.7-11.59.2-3.6-4.3
Unemployment Rate19.518.017.617.717.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-1.3-8.3-3.5-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.259.966.264.465.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.3-0.31.40.91.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.05-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.11-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.5-15.2-13.2-18.1-18.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.3-1.4-1.5-1.7-1.9
Imports (EUR billion)1.71.71.82.02.2
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-9.8-9.08.07.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.70.63.212.211.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.50.70.80.9
International Reserves (USD)0.60.70.70.81.0
External Debt (% of GDP)68.557.365.661.9-  

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Montenegro Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Aug 15

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