Montenegro Economic Forecast

Montenegro Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

GDP growth remained robust in the fourth quarter of 2018. The solid turnout in Q4 was largely driven by a rebound in the external sector, with an acceleration in exports of goods and services likely buoyed by the all-important tourism sector. Moreover, the domestic economy powered ahead on stronger private and public spending, although fixed investment ground to a halt. Momentum appears to have carried over into Q1 2019. Tourist arrivals were robust in February, and will likely continue to be strong heading into the high tourism season. Meanwhile, retail sales rose in February, signaling sustained household spending. On the downside, industrial production plummeted again in February, dragged down by a sharp contraction in energy output.

Montenegro Economic Growth

The economy is projected to cool in 2019. The investment push from major infrastructure projects is expected to wind down notably this year. Moreover, fiscal consolidation efforts will likely keep public consumption feeble. A slowdown in the EU, which could weigh on the tourism sector and dampen foreign direct investment, is the principal risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 2.9% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% again in 2020.

Montenegro Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.60.60.60.60.6
GDP per capita (USD)7,1917,3866,5207,0237,683
GDP per capita (EUR)5,4155,5595,8756,3476,800
GDP (USD bn)4.54.64.14.44.8
GDP (EUR bn)3.43.53.74.04.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.51.83.42.94.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.7-11.59.2-3.6-4.3
Unemployment Rate19.518.017.617.717.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-1.3-8.3-3.5-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.259.966.264.465.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.3-0.31.40.91.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.05-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.11-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.5-15.2-13.2-18.1-18.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.3-1.4-1.5-1.7-1.9
Imports (EUR billion)1.71.71.82.02.2
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-9.8-9.08.07.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.70.63.212.211.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.50.70.80.9
International Reserves (USD)0.60.70.70.81.0
External Debt (% of GDP)68.557.365.661.9-  

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Montenegro Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Apr 12

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