Montenegro Economic Forecast

Montenegro Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

The economy remained on firm footing in the second quarter with GDP growth accelerating to 4.9% year-on-year. The expansion was underpinned by the domestic economy, with private consumption accelerating notably—likely thanks to lower unemployment—and fixed investment posting another strong reading. Furthermore, merchandise exports posted another double-digit expansion in the January–August period. On 21 September, Moody’s upgraded Montenegro’s credit rating outlook to positive from stable, thanks to the government’s structural reforms, sizeable investment projects, and progress towards EU accession.

Montenegro Economic Growth

The economy is expected to slow in 2019 due to the completion of segments of the Bar-Boljare highway and the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 3.2% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Montenegro Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.60.60.60.60.6
GDP per capita (USD)7,1917,3866,5207,0237,683
GDP per capita (EUR)5,4155,5595,8756,3476,800
GDP (USD bn)4.54.64.14.44.8
GDP (EUR bn)3.43.53.74.04.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.51.83.42.94.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.7-11.59.2-3.6-4.3
Unemployment Rate19.518.017.617.717.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-1.3-8.3-3.5-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.259.966.264.465.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.3-0.31.40.91.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.05-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.11-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.5-15.2-13.2-18.1-18.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.3-1.4-1.5-1.7-1.9
Imports (EUR billion)1.71.71.82.02.2
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-9.8-9.08.07.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.70.63.212.211.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.50.70.80.9
International Reserves (USD)0.60.70.70.81.0
External Debt (% of GDP)68.557.365.661.9-  

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Montenegro Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.150.65 %Oct 18

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