Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

October 16, 2018

The economy likely remained on a solid course in the third quarter thanks to soaring mining-related investment, although the external sector probably continued to weigh on growth. After a solid print in July, exports fell year-on-year in August—as did industrial production, due to a fall in mining output—while imports continued to surge in the period, notably due to higher energy prices and shipments related to the Oyu Tolgoi mine expansion. On 28 September, the government submitted its draft 2019 budget to parliament. The budget focuses on improving expenditure efficiency and increasing investment to tackle social issues, while creating a sovereign wealth fund.

Mongolia Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate in 2019 and 2020 as the expansion of the colossal Oyu Tolgoi copper mine—which could represent a third of the economy by 2027—will likely bolster exports, investment and industrial production. Downside risks include lower commodity prices and lower demand from China, notably for coal. Met the why particular panelists see growth reaching 6.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.2% in 2020.

Mongolia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.93.03.03.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,5984,1653,9964,0753,903
GDP (USD bn)13.312.211.912.311.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.68.12.51.45.1
Unemployment Rate7.97.97.511.08.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.1-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.457.162.187.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)24.212.5-5.521.030.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.512.86.61.14.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,6601,8881,9932,4882,426
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5012.0013.0014.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,5161,8151,9682,1452,411
Current Account (% of GDP)-35.7-15.9-8.0-5.7-9.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-1.9-0.9-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.10.50.91.61.9
Exports (USD billion)4.35.84.74.96.2
Imports (USD billion)6.45.23.83.44.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.535.1-19.15.426.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.629.2
International Reserves (USD)2.21.71.31.33.0
External Debt (% of GDP)150179192200230

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Mongolia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,566-0.04 %Oct 18

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