Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

Growth reached a robust 6.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, a marked acceleration from the 3.7% print recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017. The performance was primarily driven by a surge in fixed investment, which was up almost fifty percent, reflecting large inflows aiming to exploit Mongolia’s untapped mining resources—principally of copper, gold and oil. Household consumption, meanwhile, grew at the fastest pace in two years, and government spending remained robust. Although exports continued to surge in the quarter on the back of higher copper production, they were outpaced by imports—notably of electricity and cars—causing a negative growth contribution from the external sector.

Mongolia Economic Growth

New projects underway in the all-important mining sector should keep driving growth this year by attracting large investment inflows and boosting Mongolia’s export capabilities. A key downside risk, however, is lower demand from China, which absorbs the majority of Mongolian shipments. Met the why particular panelists see growth reaching 4.8% in 2018, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.1% in 2019.

Mongolia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.93.03.03.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,5984,1653,9994,044-  
GDP (USD bn)13.312.211.912.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.68.12.51.1-  
Unemployment Rate7.97.98.07.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)67.376.578.190.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)24.212.5-5.520.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.512.86.61.1-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,6601,8881,9932,488-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5012.0013.0014.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,5161,8151,9682,145-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-24.1-15.9-8.0-5.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.2-1.9-0.9-0.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.10.50.91.6-  
Exports (USD billion)4.35.84.74.9-  
Imports (USD billion)6.45.23.83.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.535.1-19.15.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.6-  
International Reserves (USD)2.21.71.31.3-  
External Debt (% of GDP)144172191202-  

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Mongolia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,114-0.04 %May 21
Exchange Rate2,114-0.04 %May 21

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