Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

An ongoing surge in fixed investment buttressed by the Oyu Tolgoi mine expansion likely kept the economy on a solid footing in the third quarter and heading into the fourth. On the other hand, the external sector likely continued to detract from growth in Q3 as, despite a solid export performance, imports outpaced exports. On 31 October, Mongolia successfully completed the fifth review of its IMF assistance program, unlocking USD 36 million as the country made significant progress in addressing the objectives outlined in the Extended Fund Facility and even exceeded its fiscal performance targets.

Mongolia Economic Growth

Economic growth is poised to maintain its strong momentum in 2019 and 2020. Despite the recent setbacks to its planned schedule, this is chiefly on the back of the expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, which could represent a third of the economy by 2027 and should buttress FDI, industrial production and exports. Downside risks include lower commodity prices and softer demand from China, notably for coal. Met the why particular panelists see growth reaching 6.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in 2020.

Mongolia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.93.03.03.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,5984,1653,9964,0753,903
GDP (USD bn)13.312.211.912.311.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.68.12.51.45.1
Unemployment Rate7.97.97.511.08.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.1-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.457.162.187.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)24.212.5-5.521.030.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.512.86.61.14.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5012.0013.0014.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,6601,8881,9932,4882,426
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,5161,8151,9682,1452,411
Current Account (% of GDP)-35.7-15.9-8.0-5.7-9.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-1.9-0.9-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.10.50.91.61.9
Exports (USD billion)4.35.84.74.96.2
Imports (USD billion)6.45.23.83.44.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.535.1-19.15.426.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.629.2
International Reserves (USD)2.21.71.31.33.0
External Debt (% of GDP)150179192200230

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Mongolia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,638-0.04 %Dec 11

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