Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Growth should have stayed strong in the first quarter of the year, powered by brisk private consumption and external trade dynamics. Exports continued to surge throughout the quarter, buttressed by strong mining production on the back of the Oyu Tolgoi project. However, political uncertainty surrounding the colossal mine spiked in recent days after a group of lawmakers recommended a revision of the 2009 and 2015 investment agreements underpinning the project. Although the mining minister later ruled it out, investors will be on edge. Moreover, on 27 March, parliament voted to undermine the judiciary’s independence by empowering the president to quash a corruption investigation, a move that will likely further depress investor sentiment.

Mongolia Economic Growth

Growth should remain solid this year, supported by strong mining output and exports thanks to the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine expansion, as well as a pick-up in private consumption. However, the country is vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a slowdown in the Chinese economy, its main export market, while policy uncertainty also clouds the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see growth at 6.3% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% in 2020.

Mongolia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.93.03.03.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,5984,1653,9964,0753,903
GDP (USD bn)13.312.211.912.311.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.68.12.51.45.1
Unemployment Rate7.97.97.511.08.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.1-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.457.162.187.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)24.212.5-5.521.030.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.512.86.61.14.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5012.0013.0014.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,6601,8881,9932,4882,426
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,5161,8151,9682,1452,411
Current Account (% of GDP)-35.7-15.9-8.0-5.7-9.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-1.9-0.9-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.10.50.91.61.9
Exports (USD billion)4.35.84.74.96.2
Imports (USD billion)6.45.23.83.44.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.535.1-19.15.426.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.629.2
International Reserves (USD)2.21.71.31.33.0
External Debt (% of GDP)150179192200230

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Mongolia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,630-0.04 %Apr 12

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