Mongolia Economic Outlook
April 16, 2019Growth should have stayed strong in the first quarter of the year, powered by brisk private consumption and external trade dynamics. Exports continued to surge throughout the quarter, buttressed by strong mining production on the back of the Oyu Tolgoi project. However, political uncertainty surrounding the colossal mine spiked in recent days after a group of lawmakers recommended a revision of the 2009 and 2015 investment agreements underpinning the project. Although the mining minister later ruled it out, investors will be on edge. Moreover, on 27 March, parliament voted to undermine the judiciary’s independence by empowering the president to quash a corruption investigation, a move that will likely further depress investor sentiment.
Mongolia Economic GrowthGrowth should remain solid this year, supported by strong mining output and exports thanks to the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine expansion, as well as a pick-up in private consumption. However, the country is vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a slowdown in the Chinese economy, its main export market, while policy uncertainty also clouds the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see growth at 6.3% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% in 2020.
Mongolia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,598||4,165||3,996||4,075||3,903|
|GDP (USD bn)||13.3||12.2||11.9||12.3||11.9|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||11.6||8.1||2.5||1.4||5.1|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.2||-3.9||-5.0||-15.1||-6.2|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||49.4||57.1||62.1||87.6||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||24.2||12.5||-5.5||21.0||30.5|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||11.5||12.8||6.6||1.1||4.2|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||11.50||12.00||13.00||14.00||11.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,660||1,888||1,993||2,488||2,426|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,516||1,815||1,968||2,145||2,411|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-35.7||-15.9||-8.0||-5.7||-9.7|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-4.7||-1.9||-0.9||-0.7||-1.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-2.1||0.5||0.9||1.6||1.9|
|Exports (USD billion)||4.3||5.8||4.7||4.9||6.2|
|Imports (USD billion)||6.4||5.2||3.8||3.4||4.3|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-2.5||35.1||-19.1||5.4||26.0|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-5.8||-17.5||-27.5||-11.6||29.2|
|International Reserves (USD)||2.2||1.7||1.3||1.3||3.0|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||150||179||192||200||230|
5 years of Mongolia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||2,630||-0.04 %||Apr 12|
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