Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

Recently-released GDP data revealed that the economy shifted into a higher gear in Q2, with annual growth climbing from 3.7% in Q1 to 5.2% on the back of buoyant domestic demand. Although private consumption growth moderated slightly, the rate of expansion in capital spending more than doubled compared to Q1. Available data for Q3 paints a mixed picture, however. Industrial production grew at the weakest annual pace so far this year in July, while retail sales surged despite the continued decline in credit provision and increased inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, on 24 September, the Constitutional Court temporarily stripped Igor Dodon, Moldova’s pro-Russian president, of his powers for refusing to approve new ministers set forth by the pro-Western ruling coalition.

Moldova Economic Growth

Strong private consumption, buoyed by sturdy wage growth and continued inflow of worker remittances, should underpin economic growth next year. A widening current account deficit and a weak financial sector pose downside risks to the outlook, however. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growing 3.9% in 2018 and 4.0% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Moldova Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.63.63.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,2522,2491,8201,9252,349
GDP per capita (EUR)1,6911,6971,6621,7342,039
GDP (EUR bn)6.06.05.96.27.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.44.8-0.44.34.5
Unemployment Rate4.13.54.23.83.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-1.9-2.3-2.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.636.044.842.1-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-4.2-9.218.314.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.24.713.62.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.65.19.76.56.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.506.5019.509.006.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13.0615.6119.7019.9217.11
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)17.8818.8821.3920.9520.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)16.7018.5720.7521.9920.79
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-5.3-6.4-4.0-7.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.0-2.0-2.4
Exports (USD billion)2.42.32.02.02.4
Imports (USD billion)5.55.34.04.04.8
Exports (annual variation in %)12.3-3.6-15.94.018.6
Imports (annual variation in %)5.4-3.2-25.00.820.2
International Reserves (USD)2.82.21.72.22.8
External Debt (% of GDP)85.581.094.290.683.0

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Moldova Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate16.940.03 %Oct 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Oct 12

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