Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

The economy likely lost momentum in the final quarter after a slowdown in Q3. Retail sales rose at a slightly slower pace, on average, in the first two months of Q4 compared to the previous quarter, suggesting household spending weakened somewhat. Moreover, exports contracted in October and recorded feeble growth in November. In other news, the Central Bank recently approved the sale of a 64% stake in Moldindconbank, the country’s second-largest lender, to Bulgarian fund Doverie United Holding. This was the latest in a privatization drive in the banking sector aimed at boosting competition. Meanwhile, polls suggest that the pro-Russian Socialist party is set to win a majority in the 24 February parliamentary elections, which could lead to closer economies ties with Russia.

Moldova Economic Growth

Solid domestic demand dynamics should sustain a healthy pace of expansion in 2019. A downside risk to the outlook stems from the February parliamentary elections, which could fuel political instability. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growing 3.6% in 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2020.

Moldova Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.63.63.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,2522,2491,8201,9252,349
GDP per capita (EUR)1,6911,6971,6621,7342,039
GDP (EUR bn)6.06.05.96.27.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.44.8-0.44.34.5
Unemployment Rate4.13.54.23.83.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-1.9-2.3-2.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.636.044.842.1-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-4.2-9.218.314.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.24.713.62.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.65.19.76.56.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.506.5019.509.006.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13.0615.6119.7019.9217.11
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)17.8818.8821.3920.9520.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)16.7018.5720.7521.9920.79
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-5.3-6.4-4.0-7.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.0-2.0-2.4
Exports (USD billion)2.42.32.02.02.4
Imports (USD billion)5.55.34.04.04.8
Exports (annual variation in %)12.3-3.6-15.94.018.6
Imports (annual variation in %)5.4-3.2-25.00.820.2
International Reserves (USD)2.82.21.72.22.8
External Debt (% of GDP)85.581.094.290.683.0

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Moldova Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate17.110.03 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

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