Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

The absence of a clear winner in the general election held on 24 February has hurled the nation into political uncertainty. The pro-Russia Socialist Party secured the greatest number of seats, but fell short of a majority win, while the remainder of the votes were largely split between the ruling pro-Western Democratic Party, and ACUM—a political bloc rallying against corruption. With the ballot marred by a myriad of controversies—from vote-buying allegations to meddling by Moscow—coalition talks are likely to be tough. Consequently, the future of economic policy is uncertain, following a likely deceleration in H2 2018. While easing credit conditions and solid remittance inflows supported private spending, growth likely cooled in the second half on a deterioration in the country’s external position.

Moldova Economic Growth

Growth is set to lose pace this year on a slowdown in exports, owing to a more challenging trade environment. Moreover, downside risks stem from prolonged political deadlock and the associated hit to investor confidence. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growing 3.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2020.

Moldova Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.63.63.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,2522,2491,8201,9252,349
GDP per capita (EUR)1,6911,6971,6621,7342,039
GDP (EUR bn)6.06.05.96.27.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.44.8-0.44.34.5
Unemployment Rate4.13.54.23.83.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-1.9-2.3-2.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.636.044.842.1-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-4.2-9.218.314.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.24.713.62.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.65.19.76.56.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.506.5019.509.006.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13.0615.6119.7019.9217.11
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)17.8818.8821.3920.9520.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)16.7018.5720.7521.9920.79
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-5.3-6.4-4.0-7.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.0-2.0-2.4
Exports (USD billion)2.42.32.02.02.4
Imports (USD billion)5.55.34.04.04.8
Exports (annual variation in %)12.3-3.6-15.94.018.6
Imports (annual variation in %)5.4-3.2-25.00.820.2
International Reserves (USD)2.82.21.72.22.8
External Debt (% of GDP)85.581.094.290.683.0

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Moldova Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate17.510.03 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

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