Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

May 14, 2019

First-quarter growth fell short of market analysts’ expectations, on the heels of upbeat recent data for January and February. A supply-side breakdown of the first quarter confirmed softness in the industrial sector, which struggled—alongside its stateside counterpart—to find its footing through March. Moreover, output within the services sector slowed considerably despite strong wage growth and resilient consumer confidence. Nevertheless, Mexico’s economy is probably not as weak as preliminary national accounts suggest, given the difficulty of seasonally-adjusting for the Easter holiday. Moreover available second-quarter indicators hint at an upturn. Consumer confidence remained within reach of its all-time high in April, boding well for household spending. Survey-based indicators also suggest that manufacturing could be headed for a turnaround in April, which would boost investment and exports.

Mexico Economic Growth

Policy uncertainty in light of the new left-leaning government and flagging oil-sector output are seen weighing on economic activity this year, but steady household spending should limit the downturn. Hold-ups to ratifying the USMCA, coupled with a possible slowdown in the U.S., also cloud the outlook, as does an oil and gas-starved fiscal deficit. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 1.7% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Next year, analysts see growth at 1.9%.

Mexico Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)118120121122124
GDP per capita (USD)11,77311,9649,6548,8049,325
GDP (USD bn)1,2751,3121,1681,0761,152
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.42.83.32.92.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)1.41.92.82.82.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.13.43.73.0
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.43.15.01.1-1.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.22.61.20.4-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.12.75.18.71.3
Unemployment Rate4.33.84.03.43.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.1-3.4-2.5-1.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.042.646.648.746.2
Money (annual variation in %)11.711.45.26.88.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.04.12.13.46.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.84.02.72.86.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.30.91.311.35.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.003.255.757.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-2.21.0-0.46.28.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13.0414.7517.1820.7319.65
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)12.7613.3115.8818.6918.91
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-2.5-2.2-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-31.0-24.0-29.8-23.3-19.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.2-3.1-14.7-13.1-11.0
Exports (USD billion)380397381374119
Imports (USD billion)381110395387420
Exports (annual variation in %)2.54.4-4.1-1.79.5
Imports (annual variation in %)2.84.9-1.2-2.18.6
International Reserves (USD)177193177177173
External Debt (% of GDP)31.132.635.838.538.0

Sample Report

5 years of Mexico economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.12-0.24 %May 13
Exchange Rate19.22-0.29 %May 13
Stock Market43,1420.12 %May 13

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Mexico Economic News

Search form