Mexico Economic Outlook
September 12, 2018Negotiators breathed a cautious sigh of relief in late August as they announced that Mexico and the United States had struck a deal to update NAFTA. Although the plan left the fate of Canada—the pact’s third partner country—in limbo, it calmed markets that had begun to fear the inevitable dissolution of the quarter-century-old agreement. Details of the bilateral talks suggest significant concessions by Mexico in the automotive sector, and early analyses of the tentative deal offered diverging views on its merits. The announcement came on the heels of revised second-quarter national accounts data, which confirmed weak first estimates held back by downbeat agricultural and industrial readings. Meanwhile, available data for the third quarter hints that a nascent domestically-driven turnaround could be afoot. In the wake of AMLO’s landslide victory on 1 July, economic sentiment has been riding high. That said, the manufacturing sector has yet to fully bounce back, and trade data in recent months has been far from encouraging.
Mexico Economic GrowthTight domestic and U.S. job markets, as well as improved private-sector lending, are expected to support household spending this year. Diminishing political uncertainty, meanwhile, should buoy investment. Although external trade remains a concern, healthy factory output in the U.S. is seen bolstering manufacturing exports, while a clearer path forward for NAFTA should keep supply chains intact. In politics, most analysts expect AMLO to govern as a big-spending centrist. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, panelists see growth stable at 2.2%.
Mexico Economy Data
5 years of Mexico economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||8.08||-0.24 %||Sep 20|
|Exchange Rate||18.83||-0.29 %||Sep 20|
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Mexico Economic News
September 5, 2018
Consumer sentiment held up in August, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by INEGI ticking down only marginally from July’s post-election decade high 112.0 points (previously reported: 111.7 points) to 111.8 points.
September 3, 2018
Mexico’s manufacturing sector showed mixed dynamics in August.
September 3, 2018
Remittances totaled USD 2.9 billion in July (June: USD 3.1 billion), a 11.3% increase from the same month last year.
August 27, 2018
Merchandise trade recorded a USD 2.9 billion deficit in July (June: USD 0.9 billion deficit), widening from the USD 1.5 billion shortfall registered in July 2017.
August 24, 2018
Economic activity grew 1.2% in June from the same month a year earlier, easing from the 2.2% year-on-year expansion logged in May.