Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

July 24, 2018

Available data for the second quarter points to solid growth through the first half of the year and comes on the heels of an upbeat consumer spending-driven first quarter. Private consumption likely remained buoyant in the second quarter; the unemployment rate reached a new all-time low in May and tourist arrivals continued surging in the first two months of the quarter. On the other hand, declining imports and contracting industrial output in April and May suggest fixed investment remained weak in the quarter. This was partly due to fewer grants from the EU, which also contributed to a wider year-to-date budget deficit through May.

Malta Economic Growth

An extremely tight labor market and growing inflows of both foreign workers and tourists should buttress consumer spending and buoy growth this year. Higher tax revenue should keep public finances in check, although a sizeable increase in government spending will likely eat into the budget surplus. Met the why particular panelists see growth at 5.0% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month, and 4.4% in 2019.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)23,90126,24724,18225,13327,304
GDP per capita (EUR)18,06419,73721,67022,66024,187
GDP (USD bn)11.111.311.611.312.6
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.59.511.211.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.68.19.65.26.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.02.35.12.83.9
Investment (annual variation in %)1.36.856.81.7-7.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.93.23.54.54.3
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.0-0.27.11.5-0.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.76.0-4.43.9
Unemployment Rate6.45.85.44.74.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-1.11.03.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.463.858.756.250.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.01.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.91.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.21.2-3.4-1.94.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)2.03.13.76.411.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.80.50.81.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.6

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.453.09 %Aug 14
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Aug 15
Stock Market4,3060.36 %Aug 14

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