Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

Detailed data confirmed that the economy accelerated in 2017, although it slowed considerably in the final quarter. Annual GDP growth fell to 4.3% in the quarter from 7.6% in the previous one, owing to weaker domestic demand. Available figures for Q1 suggest that growth, while still strong, moderated again. Although tourism activity and retail sales were robust in the first two months of the year, industrial production contracted sharply. Moreover, business confidence slipped throughout the quarter as sentiment weakened across all sectors. On the other hand, labor market conditions remained tight, with unemployment falling to an all-time low in February, keeping consumer confidence elevated.

Malta Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a solid, but more subdued, pace this year. A tight labor market will continue to buttress wages and prop up private consumption amid low inflation, while fixed investment is expected to rebound on the back of EU funds. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2019.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.40.4
GDP per capita (USD)23,98626,39724,12625,276-  
GDP per capita (EUR)18,12619,84221,61522,802-  
GDP (USD bn)11.111.211.411.0-  
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.49.39.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.58.37.35.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.32.85.82.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.78.849.2-0.6-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.45.33.93.5-  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.41.67.80.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.76.0-3.3-  
Unemployment Rate6.45.85.44.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.0-1.31.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.764.360.658.3-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.0-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.9-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.21.2-3.4-1.9-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.05-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.21-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.33-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)2.13.13.86.7-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.30.50.8-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-  

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.383.09 %May 21
Bond Yield1.383.09 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Stock Market4,3260.36 %May 21
Stock Market4,3260.36 %May 21

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