Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

September 25, 2018

Recent data shows that annual GDP growth jumped from 4.9% in the first quarter to 5.9% in the second quarter. A surge in consumer spending due to a tight labor market and moderate inflation; soaring government consumption; and a sharp rebound in fixed investment were the main drivers of growth, while the external sector restrained the expansion. The economy also appears to have grown solidly in Q3: In July the unemployment rate remained very low, despite inching up; exports rebounded markedly; and both tourist arrivals and expenditure continued to soar. However, industrial production fell, and in the January–July period the fiscal deficit widened in annual terms.

Malta Economic Growth

Growth should moderate but remain robust next year. A strong tourism sector and tight labor market conditions should spur consumer spending, while low interest rates and healthy credit growth should boost fixed investment. Moreover, the budget is expected to remain in surplus, leading to a declining debt-to-GDP ratio. Met the why particular panelists see growth at 5.2% in 2018 and 4.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)23,90126,24724,18225,13327,304
GDP per capita (EUR)18,06419,73721,67022,66024,187
GDP (USD bn)11.111.311.611.312.6
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.59.511.211.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.68.19.65.26.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.02.35.12.83.9
Investment (annual variation in %)1.36.856.81.7-7.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.93.23.54.54.3
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.0-0.27.11.5-0.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.76.0-4.43.9
Unemployment Rate6.45.85.44.74.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-1.11.03.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.463.858.756.250.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.01.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.91.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.21.2-3.4-1.94.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)2.03.13.76.411.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.80.50.81.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.6

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.573.09 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate1.150.65 %Oct 18
Stock Market4,5390.36 %Oct 18

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