Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

December 20, 2018

GDP growth was buoyant in the third quarter, accelerating 7.5% from the second quarter’s 6.2% annual expansion. Soaring consumer spending on the back of an extremely tight labor market and surging inflows of tourists, coupled with an improved performance by the external sector, drove the pick-up. A dip in the unemployment rate, another month of rising tourist inflows in October and upbeat consumer confidence in October-November all suggest growth remains resilient in Q4. In less positive news, the fiscal budget swung to a small deficit from a surplus in annual terms in the January–October period, due to rapid growth in expenditure.

Malta Economic Growth

Growth should remain well above the Eurozone average next year, although it will likely moderate. Sustained job gains, robust wage increases and increasing tourist inflows will continue to underpin consumer spending, whereas an expected acceleration in fixed investment should support the economy. A hard Brexit and weaker growth across the EU, however, could constrain growth. Met the why particular panelists see growth at 4.8% in 2019, up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 3.9% in 2020.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)23,90126,24724,18225,13327,304
GDP per capita (EUR)18,06419,73721,67022,66024,187
GDP (USD bn)11.111.311.611.312.6
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.59.511.211.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.68.19.65.26.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.02.35.12.83.9
Investment (annual variation in %)1.36.856.81.7-7.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.93.23.54.54.3
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.0-0.27.11.5-0.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.76.0-4.43.9
Unemployment Rate6.45.85.44.74.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-1.11.03.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.463.858.756.250.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.01.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.91.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.21.2-3.4-1.94.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)2.03.13.76.411.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.80.50.81.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.6

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.213.09 %Jan 21
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 21
Stock Market4,3910.36 %Jan 21

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