Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

February 26, 2019

Growth likely remained brisk in Q4 of last year. A tight labor market, strong tourist inflows and upbeat consumer confidence indicate consumer spending remained in the driver’s seat. This comes on the heels of an impressive first three quarters, during which rising employment and wages, as well as a buoyant tourist sector, powered growth. The country’s upbeat economic as well as fiscal performances were among the reasons listed by both Moody’s and Fitch Ratings when affirming the country’s ratings—A3 with positive outlook and A+ with stable outlook, respectively—in their latest reviews, conducted between the end of January and early February. That said, growth should ease somewhat at the beginning of 2019 as suggested by a fall in both business and consumer confidence in January.

Malta Economic Growth

Growth seems set to soften slightly this year, although will still comfortably outperform that of its EU peers. Robust wage, coupled with a dynamic tourism sector, should underpin private consumption, while robust infrastructure spending is seen buttressing fixed investment. Met the why particular panelists see growth at 4.9% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 3.9% in 2020.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)23,90126,24724,18225,13327,304
GDP per capita (EUR)18,06419,73721,67022,66024,187
GDP (USD bn)11.111.311.611.312.6
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.59.511.211.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.68.19.65.26.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.02.35.12.83.9
Investment (annual variation in %)1.36.856.81.7-7.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.93.23.54.54.3
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.0-0.27.11.5-0.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.76.0-4.43.9
Unemployment Rate6.45.85.44.74.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-1.11.03.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.463.858.756.250.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.01.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.91.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)2.03.13.76.411.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.80.50.81.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.6

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.963.09 %Mar 11
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Mar 11
Stock Market4,6710.36 %Mar 11

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