Malaysia Economic Forecast

Malaysia Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

In a surprise result, the Barisan Nasional coalition was ousted from power for the first time since Malaysia gained independence in 1957. In the 9 May national election, the opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH), led by former prime minister Mahathir Bin Mohamad, won a majority in parliament. The PH victory has increased policy uncertainty against a backdrop of moderating economic momentum. In the first quarter of the year, the economy decelerated for the second consecutive quarter, weighed down by pre-election uncertainty as fixed investment virtually came to a standstill. Private consumption, however, remained resilient. Although fundamentals remain robust, economic activity in Q2 will likely be dampened by political uncertainty. In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped to a six-month low, and business conditions deteriorated for the third consecutive month.

Malaysia Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain solid this year despite a moderation in demand from China. Private expenditure would likely be boosted if the new government reinstates fuel subsidies and abolishes the Goods and Services Tax, although households’ higher debt servicing costs could hold back growth. Furthermore, uncertainty over the new government’s fiscal stance could dampen fixed investment and threaten the country’s credit rating, while government consumption could suffer from disruptions to previously planned projects. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 5.3% this year, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.0% in 2019.

Malaysia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.731.231.732.3
GDP per capita (USD)11,78211,7369,5669,420-  
GDP (USD bn)324311298298-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.76.05.04.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.37.06.06.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)8.14.83.62.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.45.24.73.8-  
Unemployment Rate3.12.93.13.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-3.4-3.2-3.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.052.754.552.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)7.77.52.93.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.22.72.71.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.13.12.12.1-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.41.3-7.5-1.1-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.003.253.253.00-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)7.011.8-1.3-6.4-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.283.504.294.49-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.153.273.914.14-  
Current Account (% of GDP)3.54.43.12.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.214.99.17.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)22.425.123.221.0-  
Exports (USD billion)229234199189-  
Imports (USD billion)206209176168-  
Exports (annual variation in %)0.42.4-14.9-5.0-  
Imports (annual variation in %)4.91.4-15.7-4.4-  
International Reserves (USD)13511695.394.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)65.663.065.368.5-  

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Malaysia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.210.15 %May 21
Exchange Rate3.980.0 %May 21
Stock Market1,854-0.29 %May 21

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