Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

The economy appears to have ended 2018 on a solid note. Tourism remained strong in November, while industrial production growth quickened in December. On 25 January, the Greek parliament voted to ratify the Prespa Agreement, signaling Greece’s support for the formal name change to the Republic of North Macedonia—ratified by the Macedonian parliament in October—and the end to a nearly 30-year-long feud. This should be followed by Macedonia’s swift accession to NATO, with an accession protocol expected to be signed on 6 February. Moreover, the name change should lead to more concrete negotiations over EU membership and will likely renew investor confidence.

Macedonia Economic Growth

The economy is seen picking up pace in 2019. More robust private consumption, thanks to an improving labor market, and a recovery in investment should drive growth. Nevertheless, a slowdown in the Eurozone could weigh on growth prospects. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 2.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to grow 3.1% in 2020.

Macedonia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,1285,6254,8825,2115,530
GDP per capita (EUR)3,9214,1384,3814,6874,847
GDP (USD bn)11.611.611.111.811.5
GDP (EUR bn)8.18.69.19.711.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.83.92.90.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.92.14.53.12.9
Investment (annual variation in %)0.511.78.313.3-4.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.24.84.93.40.2
Unemployment Rate29.028.026.123.722.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.2-3.5-2.7-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.345.846.648.547.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)0.27.27.66.14.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.8-0.3-0.3-0.21.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.253.253.753.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.6750.6156.5558.5051.28
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)46.5446.4255.4355.6954.63
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.1161.2261.4161.5261.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.8161.5761.5061.6161.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.7-0.6-1.9-2.8-1.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.10.0-0.2-0.3-0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)2.42.73.03.54.0
Imports (EUR billion)4.34.54.85.35.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.911.912.614.016.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.03.87.78.611.5
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.42.32.62.3
External Debt (% of GDP)63.662.166.968.3-  

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Macedonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate54.61-0.56 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

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