Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

The Macedonian economic recovery liked picked up in the third quarter, carried by a strong external sector and despite weak investment dynamics. In mid-November the government approved the 2019 draft budget, which proposes further fiscal consolidation efforts. The lion’s share of expenses is dedicated to the pension system, followed by social assistance benefits, while more capital spending is allocated on water, road and rail infrastructure. The government projects the fiscal deficit to narrow to 2.5% of GDP. Met the why particular panelists, however, expect a wider deficit given their projections of softer GDP growth.

Macedonia Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2019, boosted by a pick-up in investment spending, an improving labor market and sustained FDI inflows. However, structurally high unemployment and less favorable external dynamics could hinder growth prospects. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to grow 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2020.

Macedonia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,1285,6254,8825,2115,530
GDP per capita (EUR)3,9214,1384,3814,6874,847
GDP (USD bn)11.611.611.111.811.5
GDP (EUR bn)8.18.69.19.711.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.83.92.90.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.92.14.53.12.9
Investment (annual variation in %)0.511.78.313.3-4.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.24.84.93.40.2
Unemployment Rate29.028.026.123.722.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.2-3.5-2.7-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.345.846.648.547.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)0.27.27.66.14.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.8-0.3-0.3-0.21.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.253.253.753.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.6750.6156.5558.5051.28
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)46.5446.4255.4355.6954.63
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.1161.2261.4161.5261.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.8161.5761.5061.6161.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.7-0.6-1.9-2.8-1.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.10.0-0.2-0.3-0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)2.42.73.03.54.0
Imports (EUR billion)4.34.54.85.35.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.911.912.614.016.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.03.87.78.611.5
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.42.32.62.3
External Debt (% of GDP)63.662.166.968.3-  

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Macedonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate54.54-0.56 %Nov 29
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

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