Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

The economy soared in the fourth quarter of 2018. Robust exports of goods and services benefitted from solid tourism in the quarter, while an acceleration in private consumption and a modest rebound in total investment more than offset weaker public spending. Turning to Q1 2019, available data suggests momentum could be ebbing. Tourism slowed in January, with arrivals and overnight stays falling in annual terms. Moreover, retail sales, although still strong, moderated slightly in January and February. On a brighter note, industrial production picked up in January and February thanks to stronger manufacturing output. In other news, on 13 March, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its BB- credit rating and stable outlook for the country.

Macedonia Economic Growth

Economic prospects for 2019 remain favorable, with an expected recovery in investment and robust private consumption projected to keep growth solid. Moreover, progress on the EU-accession agenda should shore up FDI and business confidence. Nevertheless, a slowdown in the EU remains a principal risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 3.0% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

Macedonia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,1285,6254,8825,2115,530
GDP per capita (EUR)3,9214,1384,3814,6874,847
GDP (USD bn)11.611.611.111.811.5
GDP (EUR bn)8.18.69.19.711.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.83.92.90.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.92.14.53.12.9
Investment (annual variation in %)0.511.78.313.3-4.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.24.84.93.40.2
Unemployment Rate29.028.026.123.722.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.2-3.5-2.7-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.345.846.648.547.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)0.27.27.66.14.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.8-0.3-0.3-0.21.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.253.253.753.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.6750.6156.5558.5051.28
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)46.5446.4255.4355.6954.63
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.1161.2261.4161.5261.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.8161.5761.5061.6161.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.7-0.6-1.9-2.8-1.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.10.0-0.2-0.3-0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)2.42.73.03.54.0
Imports (EUR billion)4.34.54.85.35.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.911.912.614.016.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.03.87.78.611.5
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.42.32.62.3
External Debt (% of GDP)63.662.166.968.3-  

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Macedonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate54.36-0.56 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

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