Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

The Macedonian economy had a stellar performance in the second quarter, expanding at the fastest rate since Q4 2016. Growth was buoyed by the external sector, which experienced robust export growth. Meanwhile, the domestic economy fared well with a rebound in government spending and sustained momentum in household consumption. On 30 September, citizens voted in favor of changing the official name of the country to the Republic of North Macedonia, however low voter turnout is calling into question the validity of the results. The final decision now lies with parliament, where a two-thirds majority vote is needed to amend the constitution. Prime Minister Zoran Zaev has put pressure on parliament to vote in favor of the proposal by threatening to call for early elections if lawmakers do not support it.

Macedonia Economic Growth

Robust domestic demand should drive a notable acceleration in 2019. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to grow 2.4% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Macedonia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,1285,6254,8825,2115,530
GDP per capita (EUR)3,9214,1384,3814,6874,847
GDP (USD bn)11.611.611.111.811.5
GDP (EUR bn)8.18.69.19.711.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.83.92.90.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.92.14.53.12.9
Investment (annual variation in %)0.511.78.313.3-4.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.24.84.93.40.2
Unemployment Rate29.028.026.123.722.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.2-3.5-2.7-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.345.846.648.547.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)0.27.27.66.14.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.8-0.3-0.3-0.21.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.253.253.753.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.6750.6156.5558.5051.28
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)46.5446.4255.4355.6954.63
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.1161.2261.4161.5261.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.8161.5761.5061.6161.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.7-0.6-1.9-2.8-1.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.10.0-0.2-0.3-0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)2.42.73.03.54.0
Imports (EUR billion)4.34.54.85.35.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.911.912.614.016.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.03.87.78.611.5
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.42.32.62.3
External Debt (% of GDP)63.662.166.968.3-  

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Macedonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate53.31-0.56 %Oct 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Oct 12

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