Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

July 24, 2018

Domestic demand appears to have maintained momentum in the second quarter following a robust start to the year. Data for Q2 shows that retail sales were sturdy in both April and May, amid seemingly solid household consumption growth driven by an increasingly competitive labor market and gradually easing inflationary pressures. Strong wage growth in Q2 came against the backdrop of lower unemployment and still-increasing participation rates. A further tightening of conditions is likely in the coming months on the back of a projected increase in labor shortages. The external sector, however, continued to show signs of a slowdown in the second quarter: Export growth has stalled since February amid the slowdown across the EU and cooling demand from Lithuania’s key trading partners, namely Germany, Russia and Poland.

Lithuania Economic Growth

Robust domestic demand is projected to continue driving growth in the medium term, on the back of a sustained tightening of labor market conditions, more effective absorption of EU structural funds and moderating inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the external sector should remain healthy this year, although the loss of momentum is unlikely to recover in the short-run. Our panelists expect the economy to expand 3.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2019.

Lithuania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.02.92.92.92.8
GDP per capita (EUR)11,83212,48312,87413,49414,832
GDP (EUR bn)35.036.637.438.741.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.53.52.02.33.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.34.04.04.93.8
Investment (annual variation in %)8.35.84.8-0.57.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.20.14.92.86.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.35.55.36.94.5
Unemployment Rate11.411.18.87.66.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-0.6-0.20.30.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.811.542.611.139.7
Money (annual variation in %)4.91.533.17.35.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.3-0.11.73.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.20.2-0.70.73.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.4-4.9-9.6-4.34.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.00.00.00.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)0.83.4-2.9-1.20.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.31.2-1.0-0.40.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.7-1.5-2.5-2.1-2.4
Exports (EUR billion)24.524.422.922.626.4
Imports (EUR billion)26.225.925.424.728.8
Exports (annual variation in %)6.5-0.4-6.1-1.316.8
Imports (annual variation in %)5.2-1.1-1.9-2.816.6
International Reserves (EUR)5.97.21.62.53.7
External Debt (% of GDP)70.369.875.885.583.1

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Lithuania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.200.0 %Aug 14
Stock Market7110.45 %Aug 14

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