Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

March 26, 2019

The economy finished 2018 on a strong note, on the heels of a modest third-quarter outturn. Growth picked up despite fundamentals on both the external and domestic fronts softening compared to Q3, as growth in inventories accelerated. Meanwhile, available data paints a mixed picture for Q1 2019. Economic sentiment dipped to an 11-month low in February, driven by a slump in confidence in the all-important services sector. Consumer demand, however, appears to have remained strong, as reflected by robust retail sales growth in January amid improved consumer confidence and low inflation. In the political arena, Gitanas Nauseda, a former chief economist of SEB, and Ingrida Simonyte, a former finance minister, seem to have cemented their position as the main frontrunners ahead of May’s presidential elections.

Lithuania Economic Growth

Growth should remain healthy this year, buttressed by domestic demand, although it is seen losing some steam amid softer external demand. Private consumption growth will remain healthy, driven by rising wages and a tight labor market, while inflows from the EU cohesion funds should sustain healthy investment activity. Met the why particular analysts see growth clocking in at 2.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

Lithuania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.02.92.92.92.8
GDP per capita (EUR)11,83212,48312,87413,49414,832
GDP (EUR bn)35.036.637.438.741.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.53.52.02.33.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.34.04.04.93.8
Investment (annual variation in %)8.35.84.8-0.57.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.20.14.92.86.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.35.55.36.94.5
Unemployment Rate11.411.18.87.66.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-0.6-0.20.30.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.811.542.611.139.7
Money (annual variation in %)4.91.533.17.35.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.3-0.11.73.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.20.2-0.70.73.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.4-4.9-9.6-4.34.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.00.00.00.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)0.83.4-2.9-1.20.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.31.2-1.0-0.40.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.7-1.5-2.5-2.1-2.4
Exports (EUR billion)24.524.422.922.626.4
Imports (EUR billion)26.225.925.424.728.8
Exports (annual variation in %)6.5-0.4-6.1-1.316.8
Imports (annual variation in %)5.2-1.1-1.9-2.816.6
International Reserves (EUR)5.97.21.62.53.7
External Debt (% of GDP)70.369.875.885.583.1

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Lithuania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.000.0 %Apr 12
Stock Market6780.45 %Apr 12

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