Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

September 25, 2018

The economy accelerated slightly in the second quarter, driven largely by stronger household consumption. Second-quarter gains in household spending came on the back of steeper wage increases and a tighter labor market. Robust fixed investment growth, meanwhile, broadly carried over from the previous quarter, bolstered by sustained flows of foreign direct investment. Moreover, although trade activity decelerated significantly in Q2, the external sector’s overall contribution to GDP improved slightly from Q1, due to a marked slump in imports growth. Available indicators suggest momentum has carried into the third quarter. Higher manufacturing output in July propped up overall industrial production growth. This was reflected by solid economic activity readings which remained well-entrenched in positive territory in July and August. Lastly, strong retail sales in the same month pointed to sustained private consumption dynamics.

Lithuania Economic Growth

Strong domestic demand momentum is expected to continue driving GDP growth this year and next, on the back of a sustained tightening of labor market conditions and a stabilizing inflationary environment. In addition, investment activity should remain buoyant, partly due to a more effective absorption of EU structural funds. Met the why particular panelists project the economy to expand 3.5% in 2018 and 2.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Lithuania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.02.92.92.92.8
GDP per capita (EUR)11,83212,48312,87413,49414,832
GDP (EUR bn)35.036.637.438.741.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.53.52.02.33.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.34.04.04.93.8
Investment (annual variation in %)8.35.84.8-0.57.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.20.14.92.86.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.35.55.36.94.5
Unemployment Rate11.411.18.87.66.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-0.6-0.20.30.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.811.542.611.139.7
Money (annual variation in %)4.91.533.17.35.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.3-0.11.73.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.20.2-0.70.73.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.4-4.9-9.6-4.34.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.00.00.00.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)0.83.4-2.9-1.20.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.31.2-1.0-0.40.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.7-1.5-2.5-2.1-2.4
Exports (EUR billion)24.524.422.922.626.4
Imports (EUR billion)26.225.925.424.728.8
Exports (annual variation in %)6.5-0.4-6.1-1.316.8
Imports (annual variation in %)5.2-1.1-1.9-2.816.6
International Reserves (EUR)5.97.21.62.53.7
External Debt (% of GDP)70.369.875.885.583.1

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Lithuania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.200.0 %Oct 18
Stock Market6690.45 %Oct 18

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