Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

Growth appears to have recovered somewhat at the end of 2018, on the heels of a disappointing third-quarter outturn due to a lower crop yield and weak external demand. However, despite gaining steam, it was likely still below the average for the year, amid a broader slowdown in the Eurozone. Robust consumption dynamics seem to have continued spearheading the overall expansion in Q4. Easing inflationary pressures and tight labor market conditions likely bolstered households’ disposable income, as reflected by surging retail sales. At an industry level, a sustained deterioration in the mining sector continued to drag on factory output growth in Q4; however, this was more than offset by healthy expansions in the manufacturing and electricity sectors. In the political arena, Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis announced on 19 January that he would run for president in May. He joins Gitanas Nauseda, a former chief economist of SEB, and Ingrida Simonyte, a former finance minister, as one of the main frontrunners.

Lithuania Economic Growth

Although growth is seen losing pace this year amid a less favorable external-sector backdrop, it should remain solid nonetheless on upbeat domestic conditions. Private consumption should be bolstered by a stable inflationary environment and a tightening labor market, while inflows of EU cohesion funds will help sustain healthy growth in investment activity. Met the why particular analysts see growth clocking in at 2.9% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.

Lithuania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.02.92.92.92.8
GDP per capita (EUR)11,83212,48312,87413,49414,832
GDP (EUR bn)35.036.637.438.741.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.53.52.02.33.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.34.04.04.93.8
Investment (annual variation in %)8.35.84.8-0.57.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.20.14.92.86.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.35.55.36.94.5
Unemployment Rate11.411.18.87.66.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-0.6-0.20.30.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.811.542.611.139.7
Money (annual variation in %)4.91.533.17.35.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.3-0.11.73.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.20.2-0.70.73.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.4-4.9-9.6-4.34.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.00.00.00.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)0.83.4-2.9-1.20.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.31.2-1.0-0.40.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.7-1.5-2.5-2.1-2.4
Exports (EUR billion)24.524.422.922.626.4
Imports (EUR billion)26.225.925.424.728.8
Exports (annual variation in %)6.5-0.4-6.1-1.316.8
Imports (annual variation in %)5.2-1.1-1.9-2.816.6
International Reserves (EUR)5.97.21.62.53.7
External Debt (% of GDP)70.369.875.885.583.1

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Lithuania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.150.0 %Feb 14
Stock Market6110.45 %Feb 14

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