Lithuania Economic Outlook
November 20, 2018Preliminary national accounts data revealed that annual growth slid in the third quarter, expanding at the slowest clip in two years. The slowdown was largely driven by weakness in the agricultural sector after a drought severely hurt crop yields with the harvest estimated to be about a quarter smaller than last year. In addition, manufacturing production decelerated slightly in Q3, largely on the back of weaker output in the food, furniture and chemical sub-sectors. The transport sector, which accounts for over half of Lithuania’s services exports, also lost some momentum in the quarter. This was reflected in weaker services export growth. Nevertheless, external sector metrics remained overall healthy in Q3 as the competitiveness of Lithuanian exporters in other sectors continued to improve. In addition, domestic demand seems to have remained strong in Q3: Retail sales expanded at the fastest pace since Q1 2016, propped up by tight labor market and moderating inflationary pressures.
Lithuania Economic GrowthAlthough growth is seen losing some traction next year, it should remain healthy, largely thanks to robust domestic demand. Lower unemployment, coupled with a stable inflationary environment and rising wages, should underpin household consumption growth, while EU cohesion fund inflows will keep fixed investment growth elevated. Met the why particular analysts see growth clocking in at 2.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, our panelists expect GDP growth to decelerate to 2.6%.
Lithuania Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||1.20||0.0 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||630||0.45 %||Dec 11|
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Lithuania Economic News
November 30, 2018
According to detailed data released by the Statistical Institute on 30 November, the economy expanded 2.4% in annual terms in the third quarter (previously reported: +2.2% year-on-year), down from the second quarter’s 3.8% year-on-year increase.
November 23, 2018
Industrial output rose 11.9% year-on-year in October, rebounding from September’s 2.5% contraction.
November 9, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month in October, down from September’s 1.3% month-on-month increase.
October 30, 2018
According to a flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 30 October, Lithuanian GDP rose 2.2% in annual terms in the third quarter, down significantly from the second quarter’s 3.8% year-on-year increase.
October 23, 2018
Industrial output fell 2.5% year-on-year in September, swinging from a healthy 3.8% expansion in August (previously reported: +3.5% year-on-year).