Lithuania Economic Forecast

Lithuania Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

Last year’s growth momentum partially carried over into the first quarter of 2018, as suggested by available economic indicators. Industrial production growth rebounded in March, following a marked slowdown in the previous month. On the other hand, the expansion in retail sales weakened in February, following January’s eight-month high. The slowdown came against a backdrop of higher unemployment at the beginning of Q1 compared to the previous quarter, and despite easing inflationary pressures throughout the quarter. Moreover, export growth plummeted in February, following a very strong performance at the end of last year and in January of this year. Meanwhile, the government unveiled a planned tax and pension system reform on 16 April, which includes measures to raise the tax-exempt personal income threshold, reduce migrant outflows and curtail the shadow economy.

Lithuania Economic Growth

A solid labor market and moderating inflationary pressures are expected to keep domestic demand strong in 2018. Helped by decelerating, but still healthy, external sector growth and robust investment activity, this should lead the economy to expand at a healthy rate this year. Our panel expects growth to slow to 3.2% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to 2.9% in 2019.

Lithuania Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)11,83212,48312,81113,445-  
GDP (EUR bn)35.036.637.338.6-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)  
Unemployment Rate11.411.18.87.6-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-0.7-0.20.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.711.542.711.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)4.91.533.17.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.3-0.11.7-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.20.2-0.70.7-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.4-4.9-9.6-4.3-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.53.7-2.4-1.2-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.51.3-0.9-0.3-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.7-1.5-2.5-2.1-  
Exports (EUR billion)24.524.422.922.6-  
Imports (EUR billion)26.225.925.424.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.5-0.4-6.1-1.3-  
Imports (annual variation in %)5.2-1.1-1.9-2.8-  
International Reserves (EUR)  
External Debt (% of GDP)70.369.876.086.4-  

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Lithuania Facts

Bond Yield1.200.0 %May 21
Bond Yield1.200.0 %May 21
Stock Market7080.45 %May 21
Stock Market7080.45 %May 21

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