Laos Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018Solid regional growth, exports and healthy inward investment should have powered growth in H2. However, tourist arrivals have likely disappointed this year, despite a government effort to attract more visitors through the Visit Laos campaign. Moreover, recent Central Bank data shows that although goods exports jumped year-on-year in the third quarter, the current account deficit continued to widen on surging goods imports, likely linked to infrastructure projects such as the China-Laos railway. On the political front, on 5 December Laos inked a deal to export energy to Cambodia, which will support the external sector and the administration’s aims of turning Laos into a regional energy hub.
Laos Economic GrowthGrowth should be solid going forward, thanks to increased power generation, ongoing FDI inflows and infrastructure investment. However, softer momentum in China could have a dampening effect, while a weak external position, global financial tightening and vulnerability to weather fluctuations pose downside risks. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 6.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in 2020.
Laos Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,895||2,075||2,217||2,110||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||11.9||13.3||14.4||15.8||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.0||7.6||7.3||7.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.0||-4.1||-2.4||-4.7||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||54.3||58.6||58.1||58.4||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||6.4||4.1||1.3||1.6||0.8|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||6.25||6.25||5.63||5.31||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||7,938||8,035||8,122||8,161||8,196|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||7,839||8,048||8,135||8,133||8,254|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-28.4||-20.0||-18.0||-12.0||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.4||-2.7||-2.6||-1.9||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-0.8||-1.6||-2.5||-1.4||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||2.3||2.7||2.8||3.4||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||3.1||4.3||5.2||4.7||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-0.3||17.6||4.0||21.1||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||0.9||38.6||22.5||-9.4||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||0.7||0.9||1.1||0.9||1.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||82.0||85.9||90.4||89.6||-|
5 years of Laos economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
|Exchange Rate||8,562||0.31 %||Jan 21|
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.