Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

The economy seems to have grown at a solid pace in the first quarter, with strong mining output at the all-important Kumtor gold mine and upbeat manufacturing activity underpinning the expansion. On the external side, although export growth dipped in January, a sharp rebound in February suggests that overall momentum might have been sustained. Expenditure-side activity narrowed somewhat in the first quarter, however. Milder wholesale trade activity and slower remittances suggest that, despite low price pressures, household spending lost stride. Likewise, fixed investment also decelerated a notch in the same period. Meanwhile, in a move to spur foreign investment, President Jeenbekov traveled to Beijing on 28 April to strengthen diplomatic relations with China, the biggest source of Kyrgyzstan’s FDI.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to edge up this year on the back of robust industrial activity and buoyant export growth. New investment projects in the mining sector should increase output capacity and buttress growth in the near-term. Less encouragingly, however, the slowdown in Russia will likely hurt remittances this year, which, coupled with rising inflation, could bruise private consumption. Our panel expects growth of 3.7% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.1% in 2020.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)1,2491,1549421,1181,203
GDP per capita (EUR)9069548671,0601,002
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (EUR bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.8-0.5-1.6-4.4-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.252.364.958.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)51.5659.0576.8369.5669.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)51.5653.6964.4670.1268.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)67.8671.2682.4573.2083.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)64.3471.1571.4977.3677.81
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.1-18.6-18.7-11.5-3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.8-2.8-2.2-2.1-2.3
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)69.3-12.4-34.8-0.714.5
Imports (annual variation in %)0.7-5.8-27.0-3.011.8
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)94.7119136115-  

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

Exchange Rate70.000.0 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

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