Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Economic activity weakened significantly in the first three months of the year. Growth was dragged down by falling production in the mining sector, which also weighed heavily on industrial output. That said, fixed investment expanded at a healthy rate, as did the construction sector and retail sales. In mid-April, President Sooronbay Jeenbekov sacked Prime Minister Sapar Isakov and his cabinet, after Sapar Isakov lost a no-confidence vote in parliament. The parliament subsequently named Mukhammedkaliy Abylgaziyev as the new prime minister. The reshuffling is part of a move by the current president to consolidate his power following elections held last October.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

This year remittances from Russia should rise, supporting consumer spending and growth. Moreover, some improvements in the business environment should benefit fixed investment, while healthy global growth is expected to fuel exports. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP growth of 3.9% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month, and 4.5% in 2019.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.85.96.06.16.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,2491,1549421,081-  
GDP per capita (EUR)9069548671,025-  
GDP (USD bn)7.26.85.76.6-  
GDP (EUR bn)5.25.65.26.3-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.94.03.93.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.00.0-1.6-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.252.364.958.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.011.53.4-0.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.67.56.60.4-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)51.5659.0576.8369.56-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)51.5653.6964.4670.12-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)67.8671.2682.4573.20-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)64.3471.1571.4977.36-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.1-18.6-18.7-11.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.3-1.1-0.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.3-4.1-2.7-2.2-  
Exports (USD billion)1.81.71.51.5-  
Imports (USD billion)6.15.74.23.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)7.1-7.9-11.14.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.9-5.6-27.5-8.7-  
International Reserves (USD)2.31.91.4-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)94.7119136119-  

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate68.470.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate68.470.0 %May 21
Stock Market0.20.0 %May 16
Stock Market0.20.0 %May 16

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