Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

Official data suggests that the economy gained steam through the January-November period, apparently fueled by greater gold production at the all-important Kumtor mine. Economic gains were likely bolstered by sturdy household spending, supported by rising remittances from Russia, and construction-led fixed investment. Moreover, cumulative mining output in January-November was higher than in the same period last year and likely supported year-end exports. In December, officials reportedly agreed to new production quotas at the Kumtor mine that should keep output roughly stable from last year, buttressing economic growth in turn.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to accelerate this year on the back of rising gold output and, in turn, increased industrial production. Solid consumer spending, aided by remittance inflows from Russia and healthy wage growth, should also underpin the expansion. A possible cooldown of the Russian economy due to U.S. sanctions remains the main downside risk, however. Our panel project GDP growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2020.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.85.96.06.16.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,2491,1549421,1181,203
GDP per capita (EUR)9069548671,0601,002
GDP (USD bn)7.26.85.76.97.5
GDP (EUR bn)5.25.65.26.56.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.94.03.94.34.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.8-0.5-1.6-4.4-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.252.364.958.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.011.53.4-0.53.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.77.56.60.43.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)51.5659.0576.8369.5669.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)51.5653.6964.4670.1268.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)67.8671.2682.4573.2083.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)64.3471.1571.4977.3677.81
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.1-18.6-18.7-11.5-3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.8-2.8-2.2-2.1-2.3
Exports (USD billion)2.82.51.61.61.8
Imports (USD billion)5.65.33.93.74.2
Exports (annual variation in %)69.3-12.4-34.8-0.714.5
Imports (annual variation in %)0.7-5.8-27.0-3.011.8
International Reserves (USD)2.22.01.82.02.2
External Debt (% of GDP)94.7119136115-  

Sample Report

5 years of Kyrgyzstan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Kyrgyzstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate69.850.0 %Jan 22
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Search form