Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

October 30, 2018

Growing gold production in September at the all-important Kumtor mine powered the rebound in economic activity recorded in the January–September period, when GDP increased slightly in annual terms, from the small contraction recorded in January–August. That said, cumulative mining output in January–September was still much lower than in the same period last year, which translated into falling exports. On the other hand, during the same time span, sustained wage increases and rising remittances led to a solid expansion in retail sales while both capital investment and construction increased strongly.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

GDP growth is set to accelerate next year, as production at the Kumtor gold mine increases, driving output growth in the industrial sector. Solid consumer spending, fueled by healthy wage growth and higher remittances from Russia, will also underpin the expansion. A possible cooling in economic activity in Russia due to U.S. sanctions, however, cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists project GDP growth of 4.3% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.5% in 2020.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.85.96.06.16.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,2491,1549421,1181,203
GDP per capita (EUR)9069548671,0601,002
GDP (USD bn)7.26.85.76.97.5
GDP (EUR bn)5.25.65.26.56.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.94.03.94.34.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.8-0.5-1.6-4.4-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.252.364.958.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.011.53.4-0.53.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.77.56.60.43.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)51.5659.0576.8369.5669.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)51.5653.6964.4670.1268.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)67.8671.2682.4573.2083.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)64.3471.1571.4977.3677.81
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.1-18.6-18.7-11.5-3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.8-2.8-2.2-2.1-2.3
Exports (USD billion)2.82.51.61.61.8
Imports (USD billion)5.65.33.93.74.2
Exports (annual variation in %)69.3-12.4-34.8-0.714.5
Imports (annual variation in %)0.7-5.8-27.0-3.011.8
International Reserves (USD)2.22.01.82.02.2
External Debt (% of GDP)94.7119136115-  

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate69.800.0 %Nov 13
Stock Market0.20.0 %Nov 02

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