Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in year-on-year terms in the January–May period, following robust growth in 2017. The sharp reduction in gold extraction at the all-important Kumtor mine was behind the halving in output of metal ores, which weighed significantly on the performance of the industrial sector and on overall growth. The external sector also continued to be severely hit by the contraction in the mining sector. On the other hand, wages rose strongly in the period, which, together with rising remittances inflows, led to sustained growth in retail sales.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth

Falling mineral production will cause growth to decelerate notably this year and also translate into a widening current account deficit. Some support to the economy will come from robust remittances from Russia, which should underpin consumer spending, and from government measures to enhance the business environment. Met the why particular panelists project GDP growth of 4.0% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.5% in 2019.

Kyrgyzstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.85.96.06.16.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,2491,1549421,1181,203
GDP per capita (EUR)9069548671,0601,002
GDP (USD bn)7.26.85.76.97.5
GDP (EUR bn)5.25.65.26.56.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.94.03.94.34.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.8-0.5-1.6-4.4-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.252.364.958.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.011.53.4-0.53.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.77.56.60.43.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)51.5659.0576.8369.5669.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)51.5653.6964.4670.1268.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)67.8671.2682.4573.2083.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)64.3471.1571.4977.3677.81
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.1-18.6-18.7-11.5-3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.8-2.8-2.2-2.1-2.3
Exports (USD billion)2.82.51.61.61.8
Imports (USD billion)5.65.33.93.74.2
Exports (annual variation in %)69.3-12.4-34.8-0.714.5
Imports (annual variation in %)0.7-5.8-27.0-3.011.8
International Reserves (USD)2.22.01.82.02.2
External Debt (% of GDP)94.7119136115-  

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Kyrgyzstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate68.190.0 %Jul 17
Stock Market0.20.0 %Jul 09

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