Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

September 4, 2018

While the economic narrative remains positive, with solid domestic demand supporting growth, economic imbalances continue to mount. Exports contracted in July on weaker metal shipments. Meanwhile, imports expanded briskly, further widening the trade deficit, which could exacerbate an already sizeable current account deficit. On the political scene, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi met to discuss a long-standing border dispute. While details of the talks are still unknown, proponents are hailing it as an encouraging step towards a final deal between the two countries, whereas critics fear the plan could result in a redrawing along ethnic lines.

Kosovo Economic Growth

The domestic economy is expected to drive growth this year. Private consumption should recover notably, supported by healthy remittance inflows and favorable credit conditions, while spending on infrastructure projects should buoy fixed investment. However, growing twin deficits pose downside risks to growth. Met the why particular panelists project GDP to expand 4.1% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.2% in 2019.

Kosovo Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8084,2053,6003,7243,932
GDP per capita (EUR)2,9303,0713,2313,3523,479
GDP (USD bn)6.97.66.56.77.1
GDP (EUR bn)5.35.65.86.16.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.41.24.14.13.7
Unemployment Rate30.035.332.927.530.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-2.4-1.8-1.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.911.512.914.015.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.80.4-0.50.31.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-7.4-9.0-  -  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.3-2.7
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.4
Imports (USD billion)3.23.52.93.13.5
Imports (EUR billion)2.32.42.42.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.411.3-0.6-4.522.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.94.22.16.917.3
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.70.9

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.110.0 %Jul 31
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %Sep 20
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 20

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