Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

The economy likely experienced softer GDP growth in Q4 2018 after Q3’s moderation. While consumer spending should have remained strong, the external sector continued to struggle, with goods exports contracting slightly in December. In recent news, on 8 January President Thaçi called for an international conference with Serbia to try to normalize relations. This was followed by a proposal by the parliament speaker to suspend import tariffs on Serbian and Bosnian goods for 120 days, if Serbia enters into negotiations. However, the prime minister is resistant to removing tariffs and even if Serbia agrees, a truce is unlikely anytime soon and continued political tensions will likely dampen foreign investor activity.

Kosovo Economic Growth

Economic growth should maintain solid momentum in 2019 supported by strong domestic demand. Construction of a EUR 1.3 billion power plant should stoke investment, while remittances and credit growth should boost consumer spending. Tensions with Serbia and the region at large remain a key risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.

Kosovo Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8084,2053,6003,7243,932
GDP per capita (EUR)2,9303,0713,2313,3523,479
GDP (USD bn)6.97.66.56.77.1
GDP (EUR bn)5.35.65.86.16.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.41.24.14.13.7
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-2.4-1.8-1.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.911.512.914.015.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.80.4-0.50.31.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-7.4-9.0-  -  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.3-2.7
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.4
Imports (USD billion)3.23.52.93.13.5
Imports (EUR billion)2.32.42.42.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.411.3-0.6-4.522.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.94.22.16.917.3
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.70.9

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.900.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.20.0 %Nov 26

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