Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

While data for the quarter remains limited, the economy was likely in good stead in the first quarter of the year. Merchandise exports rebounded in February—on stronger exports of mineral products, and plastics and rubber—despite waning momentum in the EU. Although official national accounts data for Q4 2018 is still pending, it appears economic momentum remained solid, driven by strong investment and higher consumer spending. The ongoing political spat with Serbia, however, could have weighed on business confidence; while both parties had recently agreed to enter into negotiations, disagreements over fundamental components of the deal appear to have already stalled talks.

Kosovo Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a steady rate this year, driven by strong investment and an improving external sector. Persistently high unemployment and a large informal economy remain major weaknesses, however. Moreover, fragile relations in the region, which remains the key barrier to EU candidacy, could weaken investor confidence and exacerbate trade tensions. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.

Kosovo Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8084,2053,6003,7243,932
GDP per capita (EUR)2,9303,0713,2313,3523,479
GDP (USD bn)6.97.66.56.77.1
GDP (EUR bn)5.35.65.86.16.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.41.24.14.13.7
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-2.4-1.8-1.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.911.512.914.015.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.80.4-0.50.31.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-7.4-9.0-  -  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.3-2.7
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.4
Imports (USD billion)3.23.52.93.13.5
Imports (EUR billion)2.32.42.42.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.411.3-0.6-4.522.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.94.22.16.917.3
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.70.9

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.120.0 %Feb 28
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.20.0 %Nov 26

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