Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

October 30, 2018

The economy likely continued advancing at a steady pace in Q3. Household spending is expected to have strengthened thanks to stronger remittances, as well as higher wage and credit growth. Moreover, an uptick in new-business registrations in recent months, coupled with favorable financial conditions, hints at solid fixed investment spending. Meanwhile, export growth rebounded to an eight-month high in September—likely benefitting from higher commodity prices—although the trade deficit widened on an annual basis due to a near-20% jump in imports. On the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance released the 2019 draft budget on 30 October. It is expected to be the largest on record due to higher social spending and public transfers, with the Ministry targeting a fiscal deficit of 2.0% of GDP.

Kosovo Economic Growth

Strong domestic demand should continue driving growth next year. Downside risks to the short-term outlook include a potential slowdown in FDI inflows, as well as a wide current account deficit. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.

Kosovo Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8084,2053,6003,7243,932
GDP per capita (EUR)2,9303,0713,2313,3523,479
GDP (USD bn)6.97.66.56.77.1
GDP (EUR bn)5.35.65.86.16.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.41.24.14.13.7
Unemployment Rate30.035.332.927.530.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-2.4-1.8-1.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.911.512.914.015.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.80.4-0.50.31.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-7.4-9.0-  -  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.3-2.7
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.4
Imports (USD billion)3.23.52.93.13.5
Imports (EUR billion)2.32.42.42.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.411.3-0.6-4.522.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.94.22.16.917.3
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.70.9

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.240.0 %Sep 30
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Nov 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 07

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