Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

The economy accelerated in the fourth quarter of last year, due to a pick-up in government consumption and exports, offsetting slowdowns in private consumption and gross fixed capital formation. Moving to 2019, the latest indicators suggest the economy continues to perform well. Private sector credit growth on an annual basis was brisk in the first quarter, while year-on-year remittances growth in January and February averaged higher than in Q4, which should have supported private consumption in Q1. That being said, the external sector performed poorly in January and February. In annual terms, exports of goods and services declined, while imports increased, which should have hampered growth.

Kosovo Economic Growth

The economy is seen gaining impetus this year, driven by healthy investment, solid remittances and stronger exports of services. That being said, elevated unemployment poses a downside risk, while political rifts with neighbors remain a key barrier to EU candidacy. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.8% in 2020.

Kosovo Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8084,2053,6003,7243,932
GDP per capita (EUR)2,9303,0713,2313,3523,479
GDP (USD bn)6.97.66.56.77.1
GDP (EUR bn)5.35.65.86.16.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.41.24.14.13.7
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-2.4-1.8-1.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.911.512.914.015.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.80.4-0.50.31.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-7.4-9.0-  -  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.3-2.7
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.4
Imports (USD billion)3.23.52.93.13.5
Imports (EUR billion)2.32.42.42.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.411.3-0.6-4.522.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.94.22.16.917.3
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.70.9

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.720.0 %Apr 30
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jun 13

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