Kosovo Economic Outlook
October 30, 2018The economy likely continued advancing at a steady pace in Q3. Household spending is expected to have strengthened thanks to stronger remittances, as well as higher wage and credit growth. Moreover, an uptick in new-business registrations in recent months, coupled with favorable financial conditions, hints at solid fixed investment spending. Meanwhile, export growth rebounded to an eight-month high in September—likely benefitting from higher commodity prices—although the trade deficit widened on an annual basis due to a near-20% jump in imports. On the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance released the 2019 draft budget on 30 October. It is expected to be the largest on record due to higher social spending and public transfers, with the Ministry targeting a fiscal deficit of 2.0% of GDP.
Kosovo Economic GrowthStrong domestic demand should continue driving growth next year. Downside risks to the short-term outlook include a potential slowdown in FDI inflows, as well as a wide current account deficit. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.
Kosovo Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||3,808||4,205||3,600||3,724||3,932|
|GDP per capita (EUR)||2,930||3,071||3,231||3,352||3,479|
|GDP (USD bn)||6.9||7.6||6.5||6.7||7.1|
|GDP (EUR bn)||5.3||5.6||5.8||6.1||6.3|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||3.4||1.2||4.1||4.1||3.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-3.1||-2.4||-1.8||-1.2||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||8.9||11.5||12.9||14.0||15.9|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.8||0.4||-0.5||0.3||1.5|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-6.5||-7.4||-9.0||-||-|
|Current Account Balance (EUR bn)||-0.2||-0.4||-0.5||-0.5||-0.4|
|Trade Balance (EUR billion)||-2.0||-2.1||-2.1||-2.3||-2.7|
|Exports (EUR billion)||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.4|
|Imports (USD billion)||3.2||3.5||2.9||3.1||3.5|
|Imports (EUR billion)||2.3||2.4||2.4||2.6||2.8|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||3.4||11.3||-0.6||-4.5||22.8|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-1.9||4.2||2.1||6.9||17.3|
|International Reserves (EUR)||0.7||0.6||0.7||0.7||0.9|
5 years of Kosovo economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.24||0.0 %||Sep 30|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Nov 13|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Nov 07|
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