Kosovo Economic Outlook
February 5, 2019The economy likely experienced softer GDP growth in Q4 2018 after Q3’s moderation. While consumer spending should have remained strong, the external sector continued to struggle, with goods exports contracting slightly in December. In recent news, on 8 January President Thaçi called for an international conference with Serbia to try to normalize relations. This was followed by a proposal by the parliament speaker to suspend import tariffs on Serbian and Bosnian goods for 120 days, if Serbia enters into negotiations. However, the prime minister is resistant to removing tariffs and even if Serbia agrees, a truce is unlikely anytime soon and continued political tensions will likely dampen foreign investor activity.
Kosovo Economic GrowthEconomic growth should maintain solid momentum in 2019 supported by strong domestic demand. Construction of a EUR 1.3 billion power plant should stoke investment, while remittances and credit growth should boost consumer spending. Tensions with Serbia and the region at large remain a key risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.
Kosovo Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||3,808||4,205||3,600||3,724||3,932|
|GDP per capita (EUR)||2,930||3,071||3,231||3,352||3,479|
|GDP (USD bn)||6.9||7.6||6.5||6.7||7.1|
|GDP (EUR bn)||5.3||5.6||5.8||6.1||6.3|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||3.4||1.2||4.1||4.1||3.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-3.1||-2.4||-1.8||-1.2||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||8.9||11.5||12.9||14.0||15.9|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.8||0.4||-0.5||0.3||1.5|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-6.5||-7.4||-9.0||-||-|
|Current Account Balance (EUR bn)||-0.2||-0.4||-0.5||-0.5||-0.4|
|Trade Balance (EUR billion)||-2.0||-2.1||-2.1||-2.3||-2.7|
|Exports (EUR billion)||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.3||0.4|
|Imports (USD billion)||3.2||3.5||2.9||3.1||3.5|
|Imports (EUR billion)||2.3||2.4||2.4||2.6||2.8|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||3.4||11.3||-0.6||-4.5||22.8|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-1.9||4.2||2.1||6.9||17.3|
|International Reserves (EUR)||0.7||0.6||0.7||0.7||0.9|
5 years of Kosovo economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.90||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||0.2||0.0 %||Nov 26|
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