Kenya Economic Forecast

Kenya Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

Growth has steadily picked up amid fading uncertainty from the political scene following a tumultuous election saga at the end of last year and the agricultural sector’s notable recovery from a crippling drought. National accounts data showed that the economy accelerated for the second consecutive quarter in Q1, expanding at the swiftest pace since Q4 2016. Stronger growth, within-target inflation and an improving external position have held up the shilling and enabled further easing in monetary conditions, laying the foundations for robust economic activity. Private sector activity remained buoyant in Q2, with the PMI registering robust readings throughout the quarter. Meanwhile, the removal of the long-standing interest rate cap remains a contentious point, with the Treasury and Parliament on opposing ends. Pressure to scrap the policy has intensified given the hit to small- and medium-sized enterprises from the constrained ability to access capital.

Kenya Economic Growth

Healthy growth in private consumption and higher investment supported by easing credit conditions, along with a continued expansion in agricultural output on the back of improved weather conditions, should buoy higher growth this year. Stronger investor confidence is likely to encourage a greater inflow of overseas capital into the economy. Furthermore, completion of phase one of the standard gauge railway between Mombasa and Nairobi should restrain import demand somewhat and help narrow Kenya’s current account deficit. That said, the pace of economic expansion could be constrained by the government’s fiscal consolidation plans. Met the why particular analysts project GDP growth of 5.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% in 2019.

Kenya Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)41.843.044.245.546.7
GDP per capita (USD)1,3221,4341,4331,5661,599
GDP (USD bn)55.361.763.371.274.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.95.45.75.94.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.44.35.24.77.0
Investment (annual variation in %)2.114.26.6-9.46.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.45.66.16.04.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.8-7.0-9.6-8.0-9.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.950.253.259.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.518.612.84.87.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.26.08.06.44.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.76.96.66.38.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.508.5011.5011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)86.4590.55112.3112.5113.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)86.1387.9598.27111.5113.4
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.1-9.7-6.8-5.1-6.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-6.0-4.3-3.7-5.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.5-12.4-11.1-7.9-11.9
Exports (USD billion)5.96.15.95.75.7
Imports (USD billion)16.418.515.913.616.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.02.7-3.4-2.40.2
Imports (annual variation in %)0.412.6-13.8-14.422.0
International Reserves (USD)6.67.97.57.67.3
External Debt (% of GDP)19.321.024.931.330.5

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Kenya Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield12.750.0 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate110.80.05 %Aug 15
Stock Market0.10.0 %Aug 11

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