Kenya Economic Outlook
July 17, 2018Growth has steadily picked up amid fading uncertainty from the political scene following a tumultuous election saga at the end of last year and the agricultural sector’s notable recovery from a crippling drought. National accounts data showed that the economy accelerated for the second consecutive quarter in Q1, expanding at the swiftest pace since Q4 2016. Stronger growth, within-target inflation and an improving external position have held up the shilling and enabled further easing in monetary conditions, laying the foundations for robust economic activity. Private sector activity remained buoyant in Q2, with the PMI registering robust readings throughout the quarter. Meanwhile, the removal of the long-standing interest rate cap remains a contentious point, with the Treasury and Parliament on opposing ends. Pressure to scrap the policy has intensified given the hit to small- and medium-sized enterprises from the constrained ability to access capital.
Kenya Economic GrowthHealthy growth in private consumption and higher investment supported by easing credit conditions, along with a continued expansion in agricultural output on the back of improved weather conditions, should buoy higher growth this year. Stronger investor confidence is likely to encourage a greater inflow of overseas capital into the economy. Furthermore, completion of phase one of the standard gauge railway between Mombasa and Nairobi should restrain import demand somewhat and help narrow Kenya’s current account deficit. That said, the pace of economic expansion could be constrained by the government’s fiscal consolidation plans. Met the why particular analysts project GDP growth of 5.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% in 2019.
Kenya Economy Data
5 years of Kenya economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||12.75||0.0 %||Aug 15|
|Exchange Rate||110.8||0.05 %||Aug 15|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Aug 11|
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Kenya Economic News
Kenya: PMI falls to lowest level since January in July but remains above the critical 50-point threshold
August 3, 2018
Kenya’s private sector lost momentum in July, as reflected by a fall in the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank, which dropped to 53.6, down from 55.0 in June.
July 31, 2018
Consumer prices decreased 0.89% over the previous month in July, mirroring June’s print.
July 30, 2018
At its recent meeting held on 30 July, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Kenya’s Central Bank cut the Central Bank Rate (CBR) to 9.00% after the rate was held at 9.50% at its last meeting in May.
July 4, 2018
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank, fell to 55.0 in June from 55.4 in May.
June 29, 2018
The latest national accounts data released by Kenya’s National Bureau of Statistics on 29 June published GDP figures for both the final quarter of last year and the first quarter of the current year.