Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

National accounts revealed that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter. Manufacturing activity languished in the doldrums on a slowdown in key trading partners, while electricity supply swung to decline and the expansion of the services sector softened. Turning to the second quarter, a 4.1% rise in the short-term economic indicator for January–April suggests growth remained solid at the start of the period. The expansion was fueled by higher oil prices and a likely boost in exports, thanks to a weaker tenge, which should have kept the current account in surplus. This countered the impact of a continued weakening in the industrial sector. Prevailing uncertainty on the political front ahead of the 9 June snap election, however, has spurred sizable capital outflows, which has in turn led to depletion of reserves and a further depreciation of the tenge.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Reduced oil output, due to overhauls at the three main oil fields, is expected to soften the economy’s expansion this year, while challenging external conditions weigh on export growth. Domestic demand should remain buoyant, however, with the fiscal stimulus program buttressing private consumption and looser credit conditions boosting fixed investment. Met the why particular analysts expect GDP to increase 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.5% again in 2020.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,585
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86311,3146,2537,4457,150
GDP (USD bn)233217120141156
GDP (EUR bn)169180111133130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.14.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.61.11.81.21.5
Investment (annual variation in %)5.54.44.23.04.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.426.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.27.946.17.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.77.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0011.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9311.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.52.8-2.8-6.4-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.26.1-5.1-8.9-4.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)34.836.212.79.217.5
Exports (USD billion)85.680.346.537.349.3
Imports (USD billion)50.844.133.828.131.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.932.3
Imports (annual variation in %)4.1-13.3-23.2-17.113.3
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.730.7
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.5128116117

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate384.20.32 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jun 12

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