Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

On 19 March, President Nursultan Nazarbayev unexpectedly resigned after three decades ruling the country. As specified in the constitution, the Senate speaker, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has taken the reins until next year’s presidential election decides Nazarbayev’s successor. While a high degree of policy continuity should prevail on the economic front, the transition will likely delay the implementation of key structural reforms and privatization plans. The change in power comes as the economy grapples with lower oil production—due to maintenance works at the Kashagan, Karachaganak and Tengiz oil fields—which has constrained oil revenues. Moreover, economic activity grew at a softer pace, on average, in the first two months of Q1 2019, compared to the previous quarter. A downturn in the manufacturing sector, largely due to China and Russia’s slowdown, has caused overall activity to weaken.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

The economy is set to lose traction this year, as slowing growth in trade partners weighs on export performance and as a fall in oil output likely limits oil revenues. Domestic demand dynamics should remain robust, however, amid strengthening credit growth. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the transition in power and lower commodity prices present the key downside risks. Met the why particular analysts expect GDP to increase 3.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.3% in 2020.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,585
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86311,3146,2537,4457,150
GDP (USD bn)233217120141156
GDP (EUR bn)169180111133130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.426.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.27.946.17.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0011.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9311.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.52.8-2.8-6.4-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.26.1-5.1-8.9-4.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)34.836.
Exports (USD billion)85.680.346.537.349.3
Imports (USD billion)50.844.133.828.131.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.932.3
Imports (annual variation in %)4.1-13.3-23.2-17.113.3
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.730.7
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.5128116117

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Kazakhstan Facts

Exchange Rate379.50.32 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Apr 09

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