Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

According to an estimate from the Ministry of Economy, economic growth picked up in the January–June period, growing 4.1% year-on-year following a 3.9% expansion in the January–May period, as higher-than-forecast oil prices encouraged a further boost to oil production. The strong growth momentum was corroborated by a rise in the short-term economic activity indicator throughout the second quarter. As well as encouraging higher production, the upsurge in global oil prices has helped reduce the current account deficit, which more than halved in the first quarter compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, retail sales surged in June amid falling inflation and unemployment, growing at a markedly faster pace than in May. In early July, President Nazarbayev approved stricter controls over capital outflow from local banks in a move aimed at restraining capital flight and preventing the tenge from plunging.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a solid pace again this year, supported by increased investment in the oil sector, higher oil prices, and an upturn in domestic demand amid weaker inflationary pressures. Growth is expected to moderate from last year, however, as export growth is seen losing steam and the government’s fiscal consolidation drive curbs activity. Challenges to the outlook stem from a still-struggling banking sector, over-dependence on oil, and political uncertainty surrounding the transition of power if President Nazarbayev, who has been at the helm since 1991, decides not to contend in the 2020 presidential race. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growing 3.7% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2019.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,585
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86311,3146,2537,4457,150
GDP (USD bn)233217120141156
GDP (EUR bn)169180111133130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.14.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.61.11.81.21.5
Investment (annual variation in %)5.54.44.23.04.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.426.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.27.946.17.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.77.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0011.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9311.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.52.8-2.8-6.4-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.26.1-5.1-8.9-4.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)34.836.212.79.217.5
Exports (USD billion)85.680.346.537.349.3
Imports (USD billion)50.844.133.828.131.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.932.3
Imports (annual variation in %)4.1-13.3-23.2-17.113.3
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.730.7
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.5128116117

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate361.70.32 %Aug 15
Stock Market0.10.0 %Aug 15

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