Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018The economy entered the final quarter on a solid note, with the short-term economic indicator—which covers more than 60% of total activity—growing 5.2% in October. Nevertheless, this was still a moderation from September’s 6.5%, owing to weaker growth in retail trade and industrial production, along with a slowdown in overall investment. On the upside, robust export growth and favorable oil prices led to an improvement in the current account, which shrank more than five-fold in the first nine months from the same period of last year. In other news, the Finance Ministry commenced a week-long roadshow to sell 11-year bonds in euros on 29 October, reflecting the growing trend of emerging markets switching from issuing bonds in dollars to issuing them in euros as the spread between interest rates in the U.S. and Europe widens. The country’s debut euro-dominated issue of EUR 1.05 billion attracted strong investor demand.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthGrowth should remain strong next year, thanks to rising oil production, an increase in oil prices and an upturn in investment. Moreover, solid labor market dynamics and moderating inflation should continue to support private consumption. However, the government’s drive to strengthen fiscal metrics will likely restrain growth, while the U.S.–China trade war, tighter global financial conditions and uncertainty around the transition of power after President Nazarbayev leaves office pose downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growing 3.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.
Kazakhstan Economy Data
5 years of Kazakhstan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||371.0||0.32 %||Dec 14|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Dec 14|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
December 4, 2018
At its 4 December monetary policy meeting, the National Bank of Kazakhstan left the base rate at 9.25%, with an interest rate corridor of plus or minus 1.0 percentage point, after the rate was raised to its current level from 9.00% in its October meeting.
December 4, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.9% over the previous month in November, following a 0.4% month-on-month rise in October.
November 16, 2018
The industrial sector lost steam in October, with output growing at a weaker annual pace of 4.2% in the month, following a 5.5% year-on-year expansion in September. Looking at a breakdown of the sub-sectors showed that the drop in October was due to a cooling in the mining sector.
November 1, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.4% over the previous month in October, matching September’s reading.
October 16, 2018
The industrial sector accelerated markedly in September.