Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

Recently-released GDP data showed that the economy grew again at a solid pace in the second quarter, accelerating slightly from the first quarter. Available indicators signal a slight loss of momentum in the third quarter, however. Economic activity was up 5.2% year-on-year in the January–June period but decelerated in July and again in August, hitting a ten-month low. The slowdown partly reflected a sharp fall in industrial output growth which came on the back of a contraction in the manufacturing sector and a marked slowdown in the mining industry in August. On a more positive note, retail sales picked up pace in the same month amid stable inflation and sustained tightness in the labor market. On the external front, merchandise exports accelerated in July, amid favorable global oil prices.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Growth should remain solid throughout the remainder of this year and in 2019, supported by higher oil prices and increased investment in the oil sector. Domestic demand will also likely help spur the expansion against the backdrop of healthy labor market dynamics and stable inflation. The main risks to the outlook include the likely escalation of global trade tensions and significant uncertainty surrounding the transition of power if President Nazarbayev decides to stay out of the 2020 presidential race. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growing 3.7% in 2018 and 3.4% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,585
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86311,3146,2537,4457,150
GDP (USD bn)233217120141156
GDP (EUR bn)169180111133130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.14.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.61.11.81.21.5
Investment (annual variation in %)5.54.44.23.04.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.426.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.27.946.17.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.77.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0011.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9311.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.52.8-2.8-6.4-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.26.1-5.1-8.9-4.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)34.836.212.79.217.5
Exports (USD billion)85.680.346.537.349.3
Imports (USD billion)50.844.133.828.131.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.932.3
Imports (annual variation in %)4.1-13.3-23.2-17.113.3
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.730.7
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.5128116117

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate366.60.32 %Oct 16
Stock Market0.10.0 %Oct 16

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