Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

The economy entered the final quarter on a solid note, with the short-term economic indicator—which covers more than 60% of total activity—growing 5.2% in October. Nevertheless, this was still a moderation from September’s 6.5%, owing to weaker growth in retail trade and industrial production, along with a slowdown in overall investment. On the upside, robust export growth and favorable oil prices led to an improvement in the current account, which shrank more than five-fold in the first nine months from the same period of last year. In other news, the Finance Ministry commenced a week-long roadshow to sell 11-year bonds in euros on 29 October, reflecting the growing trend of emerging markets switching from issuing bonds in dollars to issuing them in euros as the spread between interest rates in the U.S. and Europe widens. The country’s debut euro-dominated issue of EUR 1.05 billion attracted strong investor demand.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Growth should remain strong next year, thanks to rising oil production, an increase in oil prices and an upturn in investment. Moreover, solid labor market dynamics and moderating inflation should continue to support private consumption. However, the government’s drive to strengthen fiscal metrics will likely restrain growth, while the U.S.–China trade war, tighter global financial conditions and uncertainty around the transition of power after President Nazarbayev leaves office pose downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growing 3.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,585
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86311,3146,2537,4457,150
GDP (USD bn)233217120141156
GDP (EUR bn)169180111133130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.14.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.61.11.81.21.5
Investment (annual variation in %)5.54.44.23.04.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.426.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.27.946.17.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.77.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0011.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9311.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.52.8-2.8-6.4-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.26.1-5.1-8.9-4.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)34.836.212.79.217.5
Exports (USD billion)85.680.346.537.349.3
Imports (USD billion)50.844.133.828.131.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.932.3
Imports (annual variation in %)4.1-13.3-23.2-17.113.3
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.730.7
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.5128116117

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate371.00.32 %Dec 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 14

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