Jordan Economic Outlook
October 2, 2018Although economic activity accelerated slightly in Q2, the economy remained on a low-growth trajectory due to high structural unemployment, large external imbalances and insufficient economic reforms. GDP expanded 2.1% in Q2 compared to the same period a year earlier, supported by stronger manufacturing output and a timid rebound in construction. Data for July shows that economic activity remained weak in Q3, with industrial production contracting for the eighth consecutive month and the trade deficit widening further. Meanwhile, in September, a revised tax bill was sent to parliament that seeks to generate JOD 280 million in additional revenue, mainly from expanding the tax base. The importance of such policy measures is underlined by the fact that in the January–July period the fiscal deficit widened by over 20% year-on-year.
Jordan Economic GrowthThis year and next, economic growth should accelerate slightly due to increased remittances and tourism activity. However, fiscal consolidation and tighter monetary policy dampen prospects. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.3% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||5,145||5,367||5,498||5,541||5,619|
|GDP (USD bn)||33.6||35.8||37.5||38.7||11.1|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.8||3.1||2.4||2.0||2.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||1.6||1.7||0.9||-2.1||-0.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.5||-2.3||-3.5||-3.2||-2.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||86.7||89.0||93.4||95.1||95.3|
|Money (annual variation in %)||9.7||6.9||8.1||4.0||0.3|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||2.9||-0.9||-0.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||4.50||4.25||3.75||3.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-11.4||-7.3||-9.1||-9.6||-11.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-2.6||-3.4||-3.7||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-11.7||-12.0||-11.3||-9.6||-11.7|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.9||8.4||7.8||7.6||7.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||19.6||20.4||18.2||17.2||18.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||0.2||6.0||-6.6||-3.7||-1.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||6.0||4.0||-11.7||-5.7||5.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||12.0||14.1||14.2||12.9||12.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||69.0||67.8||68.6||70.2||-|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Aug 31|
|Stock Market||3,873||0.08 %||Oct 18|
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