Jordan Economic Outlook
July 31, 2018The economy expanded at a weak pace in Q1 2018, continuing the long-running trend of slow growth that began in 2011. Although the social and personal services; agriculture; and finance, insurance and real estate sectors all grew at a good pace in Q1, weak construction activity hampered growth. Meanwhile, on 20 July, Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz won a confidence vote in parliament. This should give him breathing space to implement economic reforms, particularly those in line with IMF recommendations to strengthen the country’s public finances, such as a new income tax law. The need to do this is underlined by the fact that the fiscal deficit grew by over 150% year-on-year in the January-to-April period in 2018.
Jordan Economic GrowthDespite the weak start to 2018, economic growth should benefit from a pick-up in exports this year, as well as increased remittance inflows and tourism activity. However, fiscal consolidation, tighter monetary policy and risks of escalating instability in the region all dampen prospects. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2019.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||5,145||5,367||5,498||5,541||5,619|
|GDP (USD bn)||33.6||35.8||37.5||38.7||11.1|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.8||3.1||2.4||2.0||2.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||1.6||1.7||0.9||-2.1||-0.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.5||-2.3||-3.5||-3.2||-2.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||86.7||89.0||93.4||95.1||95.3|
|Money (annual variation in %)||9.7||6.9||8.1||4.0||0.3|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||2.9||-0.9||-0.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||4.50||4.25||3.75||3.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-11.4||-7.3||-9.1||-9.6||-11.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-2.6||-3.4||-3.7||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-11.7||-12.0||-11.3||-9.6||-11.7|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.9||8.4||7.8||7.6||7.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||19.6||20.4||18.2||17.2||18.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||0.2||6.0||-6.6||-3.7||-1.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||6.0||4.0||-11.7||-5.7||5.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||12.0||14.1||14.2||12.9||12.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||69.0||67.8||68.6||70.2||-|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Jun 30|
|Stock Market||3,933||0.08 %||Aug 15|
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