Jordan Economic Outlook
February 5, 2019Public finances improved in 2018 according to preliminary data, despite a lethargic year for economic growth through to the third quarter—the latest period for which GDP data is publicly available. In late January, the prime minister announced that the fiscal deficit had fallen to 2.3% of GDP in 2018, down from 2.6% in 2017, and that public debt had notched down to 94.0% from 94.3% in the previous year. In the same month, lawmakers passed the state budget for 2019, which aims to further reduce the deficit. Reducing the public debt to more sustainable levels is in accordance with an IMF financial support program that Jordan signed on to in 2016.
Jordan Economic GrowthIncreased tourism activity; the recent re-opening of trade routes with Iraq and Syria; and improved gas supplies from abroad, particularly Egypt, should underpin economic growth in 2019. However, fiscal consolidation and tighter monetary policy dampen prospects. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||5,145||5,367||5,498||5,541||5,619|
|GDP (USD bn)||33.6||35.8||37.5||38.7||11.1|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.8||3.1||2.4||2.0||2.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||1.6||1.7||0.9||-2.1||-0.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.5||-2.3||-3.5||-3.2||-2.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||86.7||89.0||93.4||95.1||95.3|
|Money (annual variation in %)||9.7||6.9||8.1||4.0||0.3|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||2.9||-0.9||-0.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||4.50||4.25||3.75||3.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-11.4||-7.3||-9.1||-9.6||-11.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-2.6||-3.4||-3.7||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-11.7||-12.0||-11.3||-9.6||-11.7|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.9||8.4||7.8||7.6||7.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||19.6||20.4||18.2||17.2||18.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||0.2||6.0||-6.6||-3.7||-1.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||6.0||4.0||-11.7||-5.7||5.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||12.0||14.1||14.2||12.9||12.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||69.0||67.8||68.6||70.2||-|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Nov 30|
|Stock Market||3,906||0.08 %||Feb 19|
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