Jordan Economic Forecast

Jordan Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

So far in 2018 there appears to have been no significant improvement from last year’s stagnant economic growth. The economy, which continues to be weighed down by high public debt and regional instability, has displayed weakness in the first two months of 2018. The fiscal balance deteriorated compared to the same period a year earlier, suggesting that January’s hike in sales taxes and the lifting of decades-long bread subsidies has not yet sufficiently strengthened public finances. Moreover, in the January–February period, industrial output and merchandise exports both fell in year-on-year terms.

Jordan Economic Growth

Despite the seemingly weak start to the year, the economy should pick up due to increased exports, remittances and tourism activity. However, ongoing fiscal consolidation and tighter monetary policy will dampen growth prospects. Our panelists expect GDP to grow 2.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2019.

Jordan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.46.87.07.9
GDP per capita (USD)4,6564,8315,4985,541-  
GDP (USD bn)33.635.837.538.7-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.12.42.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.61.70.9-1.4-  
Unemployment Rate12.611.913.115.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-2.3-3.5-3.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)86.789.093.495.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.39.08.62.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.82.9-0.9-0.8-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.253.753.75-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.710.710.710.71-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.4-7.3-9.1-9.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.5-2.6-3.4-3.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.7-12.0-11.3-9.5-  
Exports (USD billion)7.98.47.87.5-  
Imports (USD billion)19.620.418.217.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)0.26.0-6.6-4.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)6.04.0-11.7-6.3-  
International Reserves (USD)13.215.315.214.0-  
External Debt (% of GDP)69.067.868.6-  -  

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Jordan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.710.0 %Apr 30
Stock Market4,1980.08 %May 21

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