Jordan Economic Forecast

Jordan Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

The economy expanded at a weak pace in Q1 2018, continuing the long-running trend of slow growth that began in 2011. Although the social and personal services; agriculture; and finance, insurance and real estate sectors all grew at a good pace in Q1, weak construction activity hampered growth. Meanwhile, on 20 July, Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz won a confidence vote in parliament. This should give him breathing space to implement economic reforms, particularly those in line with IMF recommendations to strengthen the country’s public finances, such as a new income tax law. The need to do this is underlined by the fact that the fiscal deficit grew by over 150% year-on-year in the January-to-April period in 2018.

Jordan Economic Growth

Despite the weak start to 2018, economic growth should benefit from a pick-up in exports this year, as well as increased remittance inflows and tourism activity. However, fiscal consolidation, tighter monetary policy and risks of escalating instability in the region all dampen prospects. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2019.

Jordan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)6.56.76.87.07.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,1455,3675,4985,5415,619
GDP (USD bn)33.635.837.538.711.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.12.42.02.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.61.70.9-2.1-0.7
Unemployment Rate12.611.913.115.318.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-2.3-3.5-3.2-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)86.789.093.495.195.3
Money (annual variation in %)9.76.98.14.00.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.82.9-0.9-0.83.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.253.753.755.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.710.710.710.710.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.4-7.3-9.1-9.6-11.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.5-2.6-3.4-3.7-4.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.7-12.0-11.3-9.6-11.7
Exports (USD billion)7.98.47.87.67.5
Imports (USD billion)19.620.418.217.218.1
Exports (annual variation in %)0.26.0-6.6-3.7-1.1
Imports (annual variation in %)6.04.0-11.7-5.75.7
International Reserves (USD)12.014.114.212.912.3
External Debt (% of GDP)69.067.868.670.2-  

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Jordan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.710.0 %Jun 30
Stock Market3,9330.08 %Aug 15

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