Jordan Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019Economic growth was lethargic in the third quarter of 2018, while unemployment remained stuck above 18.0% for the sixth consecutive quarter. The finance, insurance and business services sector contributed the most to economic growth in Q3, followed by the manufacturing, and transport, storage and communications sectors. On the flip side, the construction sector shrank, while the quarrying, and electricity and waters sectors only just eked out an expansion.
Jordan Economic GrowthIncreased tourism activity and the re-opening of a key trade route into Syria late last year should drive growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 and beyond. Fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy dampen prospects, however. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.6% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2020.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||5,145||5,367||5,498||5,541||5,619|
|GDP (USD bn)||33.6||35.8||37.5||38.7||11.1|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.8||3.1||2.4||2.0||2.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||1.6||1.7||0.9||-2.1||-0.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.5||-2.3||-3.5||-3.2||-2.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||86.7||89.0||93.4||95.1||95.3|
|Money (annual variation in %)||9.7||6.9||8.1||4.0||0.3|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||2.9||-0.9||-0.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||4.50||4.25||3.75||3.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-11.4||-7.3||-9.1||-9.6||-11.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-2.6||-3.4||-3.7||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-11.7||-12.0||-11.3||-9.6||-11.7|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.9||8.4||7.8||7.6||7.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||19.6||20.4||18.2||17.2||18.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||0.2||6.0||-6.6||-3.7||-1.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||6.0||4.0||-11.7||-5.7||5.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||12.0||14.1||14.2||12.9||12.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||69.0||67.8||68.6||70.2||-|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Nov 30|
|Stock Market||3,887||0.08 %||Jan 30|
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