Jamaica Economic Outlook

June 12, 2018

The economy is expected to have continued recovering moderately in Q1 thanks to greater foreign demand and fixed investment. Mining exports and tourism increased, but low remittances dragged on private consumption. Growth is also likely to have been held back by fiscal consolidation efforts; the government recorded a small fiscal surplus in Q1, although expenditure slightly exceeded budgeted estimates. However, the tight fiscal stance highlights the country’s commitment to improving macroeconomic stability as part of the Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF, which was also evidenced by the recent creation of an independent fiscal council.

Jamaica Economic Growth

Economic activity should continue to recover this year on the back of a still-healthy global economy and growth in fixed investment. Robust employment gains are expected to fuel private consumption, but slow progress on public sector reforms remains a downside risk. Panelists expect GDP growth of 1.8% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2019.

Jamaica Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.8
GDP per capita (USD)	5,128	4,965	5,042	4,969	5,178
GDP (USD bn)	14.3	13.9	14.2	14.1	14.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.4	0.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-1.0	-0.8	-0.5	-0.2	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	5.5	3.0	-5.0	0.4	-
Unemployment Rate	15.3	13.7	13.5	13.2	13.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.1	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	0.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)	141	111	121	114	114
Money (annual variation in %)	4.2	4.4	14.5	11.9	29.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	9.7	6.2	3.7	1.7	5.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	9.4	8.3	3.7	2.3	4.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)	0.25	0.25	0.25	3.00	3.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	116.1	114.4	120.0	128.9	124.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	99.9	111.0	116.7	125.2	128.3
Current Account (% of GDP)	-9.5	-8.0	-3.0	-0.7	-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.4	-1.1	-0.4	-0.1	-
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-4.6	-4.4	-3.7	-3.6	-
Exports (USD billion)	1.6	1.5	1.3	1.2	-
Imports (USD billion)	6.2	5.8	5.0	4.8	-
Exports (annual variation in %)	-8.4	-7.5	-13.0	-4.8	-
Imports (annual variation in %)	-1.8	-6.1	-14.4	-4.5	-
International Reserves (USD)	1.8	2.5	2.9	3.3	3.8
External Debt (% of GDP)	90.7	111	99.5	110.0	-

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