Jamaica Economic Outlook

January 15, 2019

Although economic growth slowed somewhat in the third quarter, the pace of expansion was still one of the highest in recent years. The mining and quarrying sector chiefly buttressed the economy, benefiting from the reopening of the Alpart refinery. Strong growth in the sector offset small contractions and moderations in other sectors. Notably, growth in the agricultural sector was flat. More positively, both short-term and long-term tourist arrivals are up in the January-October period compared to the same time a year prior; short-term arrivals, however, decreased in Q3.

Jamaica Economic Growth

A tightening labor market and robust tourism sector should support economic growth this year. Fiscal consolidation effects, however, will likely drag on economic activity. Panelists expect the economy to grow 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.

Jamaica Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.8
GDP per capita (USD)	5,128	4,965	5,042	4,969	5,178
GDP (USD bn)	14.3	13.9	14.2	14.1	14.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.4	0.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-1.0	-0.8	-0.5	-0.2	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	5.5	3.0	-5.0	0.4	-
Unemployment Rate	15.3	13.7	13.5	13.2	13.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.1	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	0.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)	141	111	121	114	114
Money (annual variation in %)	4.2	4.4	14.5	11.9	29.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	9.7	6.2	3.7	1.7	5.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	9.4	8.3	3.7	2.3	4.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)	0.25	0.25	0.25	3.00	3.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	116.1	114.4	120.0	128.9	124.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	99.9	111.0	116.7	125.2	128.3
Current Account (% of GDP)	-9.5	-8.0	-3.0	-0.7	-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.4	-1.1	-0.4	-0.1	-
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-4.6	-4.4	-3.7	-3.6	-
Exports (USD billion)	1.6	1.5	1.3	1.2	-
Imports (USD billion)	6.2	5.8	5.0	4.8	-
Exports (annual variation in %)	-8.4	-7.5	-13.0	-4.8	-
Imports (annual variation in %)	-1.8	-6.1	-14.4	-4.5	-
International Reserves (USD)	1.8	2.5	2.9	3.3	3.8
External Debt (% of GDP)	90.7	111	99.5	110.0	-

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