Ireland Economic Outlook
January 29, 2019While still strong, the highly-open Irish economy is likely experiencing a slowdown ahead of the UK’s departure from the Eurozone, with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit weighing on business investment. This was visible in the third quarter, which saw a marked downturn in growth as uncertainty surrounding Brexit has led to businesses delaying investment decisions. While exports surged overall in October and November, weakness in the sterling relative to the euro has made Irish exports less competitive, thus having an adverse impact on sales to the UK. Available data for the fourth quarter corroborates this downward trend: Industrial production contracted, on average, in the first two months of Q4; the manufacturing and services PMIs lost ground in the quarter; and consumer confidence remained in pessimistic territory throughout the period, as households’ concerns over Brexit intensified.
Ireland Economic GrowthThe economy is set to lose traction in 2019, as export growth weakens on a wider slowdown in the global economy. Moreover, private consumption is expected to expand at a slower pace as households’ purchasing power is curbed by higher inflation, while government spending will also likely slow on tighter fiscal consolidation measures. That said, domestic demand should rebound in tandem with fixed investment swinging back into positive territory. Primary risks to the outlook continue to stem from uncertainties surrounding Brexit, particularly the prospect of a hard-Brexit. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month's forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
Ireland Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.41||0.27 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||5,950||-0.39 %||Feb 14|
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Ireland Economic News
February 5, 2019
The highly volatile Irish manufacturing industries production index contracted more sharply in December, declining 18.9% in seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms.
February 5, 2019
The Irish service sector continued to lose strength at the outset of the year, with the Investec service Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declining to 54.2 in January from 56.3 in December.
February 1, 2019
The Investec manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 52.6 in January from 54.5 in December.
January 11, 2019
The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI consumer sentiment index came in at 96.5 in December, matching November’s print.
January 9, 2019
The highly volatile Irish manufacturing industries production index contracted sharply from the previous month in November, declining 7.9% in seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms.