Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

July 24, 2018

Recently released national accounts data showed that the economy contracted in quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1, owing to a slowdown in domestic demand and a sharp drop in exports amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty and rising global trade tensions. However, available data for Q2 points to a pick-up in the pace of expansion: Export growth was strong in the first two months of the quarter, which aided the acceleration in industrial production. Prospects for the manufacturing and services sectors also appeared brighter in June, with the corresponding PMIs climbing. Moreover, retail sales rose markedly in April–May amid falling unemployment. Nevertheless, Brexit-related uncertainties remain: A recent IMF assessment cautioned that the Irish economy could take a significant hit in the absence of a Brexit deal, due to the highly integrated nature of the Irish and UK economies.

Ireland Economic Growth

Robust economic growth is forecast again this year, thanks to an expected rebound in domestic demand amid accommodative monetary conditions. Private consumption is seen accelerating markedly, supported by a strengthening labor market. However, volatility in the country’s national accounts will continue to skew growth data, due to the significant number of multinationals based in the country. Headwinds to the outlook mainly arise from Brexit and rising trade tensions. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 5.3% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, then slow to 3.3% growth in 2019.

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Ireland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.600.27 %Aug 07
Exchange Rate1.160.65 %Aug 07
Stock Market6,814-0.39 %Aug 07

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