Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

May 29, 2018

Leading indicators show that the Irish economy entered the second quarter on a more upbeat note thanks to buoyant domestic activity. Both the manufacturing and services PMI climbed in April as weather-related disruptions subsided from the previous month and demand picked up. Continued strong growth in employment reduced slack in the labor market, with the unemployment rate inching down to a near one-decade low in the month. Robust labor market dynamics have pushed wages higher and propped up households’ real purchasing power amid subdued inflation. On the downside, the future of the Irish border remains a key sticking point in Brexit negotiations. A recent report released by the Central Bank of Ireland estimated that border checks and additional red tape could slash trade in goods between Ireland the U.K. by almost a tenth post-Brexit.

Ireland Economic Growth

The economy’s strong growth is expected to moderate over this year and the next. Growth this year should be supported by a strong domestic economy, underpinned by a positive trend in the labor market and an expansion in construction activity. Volatility in national accounts figures is expected to continue in the near-term, however, due to the role of multinational companies. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 5.4% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and to slow to 3.4% in 2019.

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Ireland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.670.27 %Jun 14
Exchange Rate1.170.65 %Jun 14
Stock Market7,178-0.39 %Jun 14

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Ireland Economic News

  • Ireland: Services PMI rises to four-month high in May

    June 6, 2018

    The Investec services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to a four-month high of 59.3 in May, up from 58.4 in April, thanks to a buoyant economic landscape and more favorable weather conditions.

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  • Ireland: Consumer sentiment improves in May

    June 5, 2018

    The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI consumer sentiment index climbed to 116.7 points in May, up from 114.0 points in April, recovering two-thirds of the drop in the previous month.

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  • Ireland: Industrial production records strong expansion in April

    June 5, 2018

    The highly volatile Irish manufacturing industries production index rose 9.2% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in April, contrasting a 7.4% month-on-month contraction in March.

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  • Ireland: Manufacturing PMI inches up to 38-month high in May

    June 1, 2018

    The Investec manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched up to 55.4 points in May from 55.3 points in April, reflecting improved business conditions in the manufacturing sector.

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  • Ireland: Consumer sentiment deteriorates in April

    May 11, 2018

    The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI consumer sentiment index slid to a five-month low of 114.0 points in April from 118.1 points in March, continuing a “see-saw pattern” of improving confidence in one month followed by weaker confidence in the next month in a rapidly changing and uncertain economic setting due to the threat of a potential trade war, along with Brexit. April’s loss of consumer confidence reflected increased strains on household finances, underpinned by higher energy costs and restrained wage growth.

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