Ireland Economic Outlook
November 20, 2018Recent data suggests that the economy lost traction in the third quarter, following a stellar first half of the year. While export growth remained robust in the first two months of the third quarter, retail sales lost some speed indicating a slowdown in private consumption. Early indicators for Q4 signal dimmer prospects for the Irish economy, with an across-the-board downturn in survey-based data. Consumer confidence plummeted to the lowest in nearly two years in October, on fears of a hard Brexit and a wider global slowdown. Moreover, both the manufacturing and service PMIs lost ground in the month. While the UK Cabinet approved a draft agreement on Britain’s exit from the EU on 14 November, a wave of resignations by key cabinet members has once again thrown the terms of the deal into uncertainty, with the Irish border backstop remaining one of the key points of contention.
Ireland Economic GrowthThe economy will likely grow at a weaker pace next year, due to an expected moderation in export growth likely owing to a broad-based slowdown in the Eurozone, coupled with lingering Brexit-related uncertainties. Private consumption is also expected to expand at a weaker pace as inflationary pressures increase, while the government is set to cut spending in the 2019 budget in order to strengthen its fiscal metrics. Risks that Brexit will undermine trade with the UK due to higher costs and disruptive delays continues to threaten the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 3.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month's forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
Ireland Economy Data
5 years of Ireland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.60||0.27 %||Nov 29|
|Exchange Rate||1.14||0.65 %||Nov 29|
|Stock Market||5,851||-0.39 %||Nov 29|
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Ireland Economic News
November 7, 2018
The highly volatile Irish manufacturing industries production index decelerated from the previous month in September, growing 2.3% in seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms.
November 5, 2018
The Investec service Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 57.2 points in October from 58.7 in September and the lowest print in seven months.
November 1, 2018
The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI consumer sentiment index continued to tumble in October, falling to the lowest level in 46 months, on mounting risks of a hard Brexit.
November 1, 2018
The Investec manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) lost ground in October, sliding to 54.9 points from 56.3 points in September.
October 5, 2018
The highly volatile Irish manufacturing industries production index accelerated markedly from the previous month, growing 8.9% in seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms in August, following a revised 2.5% expansion over the previous month in July (previously reported: +3.3% month-on-month).