Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

September 25, 2018

Recently-released GDP data for the second quarter shows that the Irish economy rebounded markedly from the previous quarter on a surge in exports and healthy growth in private consumption. Although skewed by the large presence of multinationals, the economy’s annual pace of expansion positions it as the Eurozone’s best-performer, and available data for the third quarter indicates the picture remains upbeat. Retail sales and industrial production rebounded over the previous month in July. Moreover, merchandise exports picked up in July for the second consecutive month on higher overseas sales of medical and pharmaceutical products, and organic chemicals. Looking at survey-based data, consumer confidence tumbled in August following July’s strong reading as elevated Brexit-related uncertainties drove consumers to downgrade their assessment of the wider Irish economy. Meanwhile, the manufacturing and service PMIs climbed higher in August after losing ground in the previous month.

Ireland Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a slower pace next year, owing to a deceleration in export growth and weaker expansion in government spending. Meanwhile, a robust labor market and accommodative monetary conditions should keep private consumption growing at a healthy pace. Risks to the outlook stem from Brexit-related uncertainties, as well as from the intensifying trade standoff between China and the U.S., given the open nature of the economy. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 5.8% in 2018 and 3.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

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Ireland Facts

Bond Yield0.740.27 %Oct 16
Exchange Rate1.160.65 %Oct 16
Stock Market6,263-0.39 %Oct 16

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