Iraq Economic Outlook
July 31, 2018
Protests broke out in July after Iran decreased its energy exports to Iraq, intensifying the effects of the heat wave. Protesters also vented frustration over rising unemployment, corruption and government policies. Demonstrators blocked roads to oil fields in the south, and the prostest will likely dent the country’s growth prospects in H2. The situation is compounded by political gridlock; more than two months after general elections, a new government has yet to be formed. More positively, however, recently released data showed the economy performed fairly well in the first quarter of the year thanks to a strong oil sector, which was buoyed by increased output and higher barrel prices.Iraq Economic Growth
This year, the economy should benefit from higher oil prices. However, protests could significantly dent economic activity, particularly if they become more prolonged. In addition, a large fiscal deficit and a long government formation process cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.4% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2019.Iraq Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 33.4 | 36.0 | 36.9 | 37.9 | 38.9 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,042 | 6,621 | 4,851 | 4,548 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 235 | 238 | 179 | 172 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.6 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 11.0 | - |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 5.0 | 6.7 | 22.2 | 8.0 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.8 | -5.4 | -12.3 | -13.9 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 31.2 | 32.0 | 55.1 | 64.4 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1,165 | 1,143 | 1,096 | 1,182 | 1,185 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1,163 | 1,163 | 1,148 | 1,171 | 1,177 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 9.6 | 11.2 | -1.1 | 2.1 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 22.6 | 24.4 | -1.9 | 3.6 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 30.4 | 26.8 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 18.8 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 89.8 | 85.4 | 51.3 | 41.3 | 57.6 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 60.1 | 54.4 | 48.0 | 34.3 | 38.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -4.7 | -4.9 | -39.9 | -19.5 | 39.4 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 0.6 | -1.3 | -18.1 | -28.7 | 13.3 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 77.7 | 66.3 | 53.5 | 44.9 | 48.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 25.2 | 24.4 | 36.9 | 39.2 | - |
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Iraq Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,193 | 0.0 % | Aug 15 |
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