Iraq Economic Forecast

Iraq Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Iraq is gearing up for elections on 12 May. Chief points of concern on the agenda among voters are job creation, security and the government’s ability to provide services. While the political landscape in Iraq is as fractured as it has ever been, the fallout from the elections will likely spill into the coming months; coalition negotiations will prove difficult. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s party is leading in the polls, but the outcome of the vote remains uncertain due to the an abundance of undecided voters. Moreover, the election results could spark an increase in sectarian tensions in the country.

Iraq Economic Growth

Higher oil prices bode well for Iraq’s economic outlook, and improved security conditions are expected to boost foreign investment. However, risks are tilted to the downside: A large fiscal deficit and the possibility of a flare up of sectarian tensions cloud the outlook for the economy. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.5% in 2018, up 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2019.

Iraq Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.434.335.236.137.0
GDP per capita (USD)7,0226,8464,676-  -  
GDP (USD bn)235235164-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.6-3.9-2.4-  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.06.722.28.0-  
Unemployment Rate15.115.015.516.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.8-5.3-12.3-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.231.855.0-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.92.21.40.6-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.006.006.004.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,1651,1431,0961,182-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1631,1631,1481,171-  
Current Account (% of GDP)9.611.42.5-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)22.624.44.1-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)30.430.811.2-  -  
Exports (USD billion)89.884.043.4-  -  
Imports (USD billion)59.353.233.2-  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.7-6.4-48.3-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)0.6-11.4-37.6-  -  
International Reserves (USD)77.766.451.142.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)25.324.511.8-  -  

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Iraq Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1,1930.0 %May 21

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