Iraq Economic Forecast

Iraq Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

The economy has likely performed fairly well in the second and third quarters of the year, buoyed by higher oil prices and increased crude output, which reached a record high in August. Oil prices are expected to remain afloat as U.S. sanctions against Iran come into effect on 4 November, while the state oil company SOMO is ramping up output to fill the gap left by Iran, providing a further stimulus to state income. In addition, SOMO is looking to increase its presence in Asia, which would bode well for government revenue going forward. On the political front, Iraq remains without a government nearly five months after the elections, with negotiations between different political groupings ongoing and unrelenting violence in the streets.

Iraq Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to pick up in the second half of this year and next year on higher oil prices and crude production. However, political instability and social unrest, particularly in Basra, cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.3% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Iraq Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.436.036.937.938.9
GDP per capita (USD)7,0426,6214,8514,548-  
GDP (USD bn)235238179172-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.60.74.811.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.06.722.28.0-  
Unemployment Rate7.97.67.78.08.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.8-5.4-12.3-13.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.232.055.164.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.92.21.40.40.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.006.006.004.004.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,1651,1431,0961,1821,185
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1631,1631,1481,1711,177
Current Account (% of GDP)9.611.2-1.12.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)22.624.4-1.93.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)30.426.83.37.118.8
Exports (USD billion)89.885.451.341.357.6
Imports (USD billion)60.154.448.034.338.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.7-4.9-39.9-19.539.4
Imports (annual variation in %)0.6-1.3-18.1-28.713.3
International Reserves (USD)77.766.353.544.948.9
External Debt (% of GDP)25.224.436.939.2-  

Sample Report

5 years of Iraq economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Iraq Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1,1930.0 %Oct 16

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Search form