Iraq Economic Outlook
October 2, 2018
The economy has likely performed fairly well in the second and third quarters of the year, buoyed by higher oil prices and increased crude output, which reached a record high in August. Oil prices are expected to remain afloat as U.S. sanctions against Iran come into effect on 4 November, while the state oil company SOMO is ramping up output to fill the gap left by Iran, providing a further stimulus to state income. In addition, SOMO is looking to increase its presence in Asia, which would bode well for government revenue going forward. On the political front, Iraq remains without a government nearly five months after the elections, with negotiations between different political groupings ongoing and unrelenting violence in the streets.Iraq Economic Growth
Economic growth is expected to pick up in the second half of this year and next year on higher oil prices and crude production. However, political instability and social unrest, particularly in Basra, cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.3% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.Iraq Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 33.4 | 36.0 | 36.9 | 37.9 | 38.9 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,042 | 6,621 | 4,851 | 4,548 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 235 | 238 | 179 | 172 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.6 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 11.0 | - |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 5.0 | 6.7 | 22.2 | 8.0 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.8 | -5.4 | -12.3 | -13.9 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 31.2 | 32.0 | 55.1 | 64.4 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1,165 | 1,143 | 1,096 | 1,182 | 1,185 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1,163 | 1,163 | 1,148 | 1,171 | 1,177 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 9.6 | 11.2 | -1.1 | 2.1 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 22.6 | 24.4 | -1.9 | 3.6 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 30.4 | 26.8 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 18.8 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 89.8 | 85.4 | 51.3 | 41.3 | 57.6 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 60.1 | 54.4 | 48.0 | 34.3 | 38.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -4.7 | -4.9 | -39.9 | -19.5 | 39.4 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 0.6 | -1.3 | -18.1 | -28.7 | 13.3 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 77.7 | 66.3 | 53.5 | 44.9 | 48.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 25.2 | 24.4 | 36.9 | 39.2 | - |
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Iraq Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,193 | 0.0 % | Oct 16 |
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