Iran Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018Iran’s economy remains in dire straits despite the unexpected U.S. decision early in November to grant sanction waivers to key buyers of Iranian oil, including China, India, Japan and Turkey. Given the eight countries account for around 75% of Iran’s total oil shipments, the decision will give a much-needed boost to oil revenues. In other positive news, expectations of larger inflows of hard currency prompted the rial traded in the parallel market to appreciate markedly in November. Nevertheless, the waivers will expire in early May, while the remaining sanctions were left in place, including penalties for international insurers covering Iranian oil tankers.
Iran Economic GrowthDespite the announcement of waivers, Iran’s economy is expected to be in recession this year and next. Economic sanctions are disrupting economic activity, fueling inflation and hampering business and consumer sentiment. Panelists see the economy contracting 3.7% in SH 2019, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 1.0% in SH 2020.
Iran Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||5,629||5,451||4,931||5,272||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||436||428||392||424||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||-0.2||4.6||-1.3||13.4||-|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.9||-1.1||-1.7||-2.2||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||11.7||11.8||41.6||48.9||11.9|
|Money (annual variation in %)||38.8||22.3||30.0||23.2||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||19.6||16.2||8.4||11.8||8.3|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||34.7||15.6||11.9||9.0||9.6|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||24,774||27,138||30,130||32,376||36,074|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||18,544||26,016||29,128||31,002||33,384|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||5.8||3.2||0.3||3.9||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||25.1||13.6||1.2||16.4||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||29.3||18.1||5.4||20.8||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||92.9||89.0||63.0||84.0||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||63.6||70.9||57.6||63.1||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-4.5||-4.2||-29.2||33.3||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-7.5||11.5||-18.7||9.5||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||118||126||128||121||-|
5 years of Iran economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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