Iran Economic Forecast

Iran Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

The non-oil economy decelerated markedly in the first quarter of SH 2018, largely due to the rial’s collapse, while the oil sector sharply rebounded, front-loading activity ahead of new U.S. sanctions taking effect in November. On 28 September, Sinopec, China’s top oil refiner, announced it would halve its oil imports from Iran, dealing a crushing blow to the sector even though China—Iran’s largest customer—had initially signaled it would maintain its purchases. The EU is reported to currently be in talks with China and Russia to set up an alternative payment system to bypass U.S. sanctions; however, many analysts and diplomats doubt the feasibility of such a scheme.

Iran Economic Growth

Iran’s economy is crumbling as fresh economic sanctions undermine investor sentiment, fuel inflationary pressures and weaken the rial. Panelists see growth at 1.4% in SH 2018, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In SH 2019, the economy is expected to contract 3.5%.

Iran Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)77.478.579.580.581.4
GDP per capita (USD)5,6295,4514,9315,272-  
GDP (USD bn)436428392424-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.24.6-1.313.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate11.511.511.812.512.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-1.1-1.7-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.711.841.648.911.9
Money (annual variation in %)38.822.330.023.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)19.616.28.411.88.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)34.715.611.99.09.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24,77427,13830,13032,37636,074
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18,54426,01629,12831,00233,384
Current Account (% of GDP)5.83.20.33.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)25.113.61.216.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.318.15.420.8-  
Exports (USD billion)92.989.063.084.0-  
Imports (USD billion)63.670.957.663.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.5-4.2-29.233.3-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-7.511.5-18.79.5-  
International Reserves (USD)118126128121-  

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