Indonesia Economic Outlook
May 22, 2018A muted performance by the external sector caused year-on-year GDP growth to decelerate in the first quarter. While waning trade momentum and subdued prices for Indonesian commodities weighed on export growth, imports soared at a double-digit rate, underscoring that the domestic economy was in good shape. More recent data from Q2 is mixed and suggests that the domestic economy continues to perform strongly while weakness lingers in the external sector. In April, the manufacturing PMI reached an over one-year high, and consumer confidence edged higher. However, the trade balance posted the largest deficit in four years. The weak trade figure put pressure on the currency, which crossed the 14,000 IDR per USD threshold on 15 May amid heightened volatility due to growing concerns that faster-than-expected monetary tightening in the U.S. will result in capital outflows from the economy.
Indonesia Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to accelerate marginally this year on the back of solid growth in government consumption and fixed investment. Risks, however, are tilted to the downside as prices for key commodities remain depressed and declining external demand growth could weigh on the external sector. Likewise, the economy is vulnerable to capital outflows, which could be a source of financial instability. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growth of 5.3% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the economy is seen growing 5.4%.
Indonesia Economy Data
5 years of Indonesia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.44||-0.05 %||May 21|
|Exchange Rate||14,185||0.05 %||May 21|
|Stock Market||5,734||-0.32 %||May 21|
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Indonesia Economic News
May 17, 2018
At its 17 and 18 May monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, the first hike since November 2014, in a move aimed to ensure economic stability.
May 11, 2018
In March, retail sales rose 2.5% over the same month last year, coming in above February’s 1.5% increase and market expectations of a 1.7% increase.
May 7, 2018
The economy slowed marginally at the outset of 2018, with growth moderating from the fourth quarter.
May 7, 2018
In April, consumer prices increased 0.11% from the previous month, down from the 0.20% month-on-month increase in March.
May 2, 2018
Conditions in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector improved in April, according to the IHS Markit and Nikkei manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which rose from 50.7 in March to 51.6, the best reading since June 2016.