Indonesia Economic Forecast

Indonesia Economic Outlook

September 18, 2018

Growth picked up in the second quarter on stronger private and government consumption, and the economy appears to have performed well so far in the third quarter. Industrial production and tourist arrivals boomed in July, while retail sales were solid in the same month. Moreover, in August consumer sentiment was firmly in optimistic territory and the manufacturing PMI rose to a multi-year high on faster output and new orders growth. However, the external sector remains a key vulnerability, with a second consecutive monthly trade deficit recorded in August. This is putting downward pressure on the rupiah, which has reached a 20-year low against the dollar in recent weeks as part of a wider emerging-market selloff, forcing the central bank to dip into its international reserves to support the currency. As part of a broader package aimed at propping up the rupiah, the government recently announced higher import taxes on over 1,000 products.

Indonesia Economic Growth

Domestic demand should continue to underpin growth going forward, with fixed investment supported by higher commodity prices and government consumption likely receiving a boost ahead of elections in April 2019. However, tighter monetary policy, delays to public investment projects, cooling Chinese demand and U.S.-China trade tensions pose downside risks to growth. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 5.2% in 2018. In 2019, the economy is forecast to grow 5.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Indonesia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)249252255259262
GDP per capita (USD)3,6723,5323,3693,6053,876
GDP (USD bn)9148918619331,015
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.65.04.95.05.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.45.15.05.04.9
Investment (annual variation in %)5.04.45.04.56.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)4.44.64.34.34.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)12.914.513.311.02.9
Unemployment Rate6.25.96.25.65.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.1-2.6-2.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.024.327.528.930.5
Money (annual variation in %)12.811.99.011.08.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.18.43.43.03.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.46.46.43.53.8
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.507.757.504.754.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.022.3-12.115.320.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12,17012,38513,78813,47313,568
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)11,44911,86613,39213,30213,383
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.2-3.1-2.0-1.8-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-29.1-27.5-17.5-17.0-17.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.1-2.27.79.511.8
Exports (USD billion)183176150145169
Imports (USD billion)187178143136157
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.9-3.6-14.6-3.416.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.6-4.5-19.9-4.915.7
International Reserves (USD)99.4112116116130
External Debt (% of GDP)29.132.936.134.334.8

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Indonesia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.18-0.05 %Sep 24
Exchange Rate14,8680.05 %Sep 24
Stock Market5,882-0.32 %Sep 24

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