India Economic Outlook
July 17, 2018The economy appears well positioned for FY 2018, which started in April, after the highest GDP growth in seven quarters was recorded in the January–March period. In June, business activity in the private sector increased for the fourth consecutive month, and at the fastest pace since October 2016. The manufacturing and service sectors both benefited from a substantial increase in output thanks to broad-based demand. Moreover, in May, industrial production expanded at a healthy pace. On 4 July, the government approved an increase in the minimum support prices paid to farmers growing summer-sown crops this year. The increase should provide farmers with a profit of 50% over the cost of crop production. This should come as welcome news to farmers, after rainfall was below-average in June, the first month of the important June–September monsoon season.
India Economic GrowthA normalization in cash conditions following the demonetization of late 2016 and the fading of disruptions from last year’s launch of the Goods and Services Tax should facilitate the economic recovery in FY 2018. Nonetheless, risks of fiscal slippage in the run-up to elections next year, concerns over India’s banking sector, increasing global trade tensions and higher oil prices all cloud prospects. Our panel expects GDP growth of 7.3% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 7.5% in FY 2019.
India Economy Data
5 years of India economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.82||-0.04 %||Aug 14|
|Exchange Rate||69.92||-0.09 %||Aug 15|
|Stock Market||37,852||-0.08 %||Aug 14|
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India Economic News
August 14, 2018
In July, consumer prices rose 0.94% from the previous month—more than the revised 0.51% rise recorded in June (previously reported: +0.58% month-on-month) and the biggest increase since November 2017.
August 14, 2018
In July, merchandise exports increased 14.3% compared to the same month last year, down from the 17.6% expansion recorded in June and totaling USD 25.8 billion.
August 11, 2018
Annual industrial production growth accelerated to 7.0% in June from May’s revised 3.9% (previously reported: +3.2% year-on-year), overshooting market analysts’ expectations of 5.5% and representing a four-month high.
August 3, 2018
The composite Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Market, rose to 54.1 in July from 53.3 in June, climbing further above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector.
August 1, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 31 July–1 August, five out of the six central bankers of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) voted to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.