India Economic Forecast

India Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

Annual economic growth slowed in the second quarter of fiscal year 2018, which ran from July to September, compared to the first quarter. The slowdown was due to a weaker rise in private consumption and substantially faster growth in imports of goods and services. Private consumption appeared to be weighed on by cautious spending among rural households amid a weak crop harvest and low agricultural commodity prices. Imports, meanwhile, were likely stoked by higher oil prices. On a brighter note, there were stronger expansions in public consumption, fixed investment and exports in the second quarter. Turning to the third quarter, the outlook appears mixed: Although the private-sector PMI hit an over two-year high in November, consumer confidence slipped in the same month.

India Economic Growth

Overall, economic growth is expected to accelerate this fiscal year due to faster private consumption and investment growth. However, fiscal slippage in the run-up to the general elections next year, global trade protectionism and oil price volatility all cloud the outlook. Our panel expects GDP growth of 7.4% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 7.4% again in FY 2019.

India Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1,2501,2661,2831,3001,317
GDP per capita (USD)1,4881,6141,6321,7501,979
GDP (USD bn)1,8592,0442,0942,2752,607
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.47.48.27.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.36.47.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.62.65.211.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.34.13.44.54.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.567.869.668.970.2
Money (annual variation in %)12.311.711.56.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.25.34.83.94.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.06.04.94.53.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.21.3-3.61.82.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.007.506.756.256.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)18.924.9-9.416.911.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)60.0262.2966.2564.8665.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)60.4261.1465.4267.0464.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.8-1.4-1.1-0.7-1.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-32.8-27.6-22.1-15.2-48.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-136.6-137.5-117.2-119.0-157.0
Exports (USD billion)314311262275303
Imports (USD billion)451448379384460
Exports (annual variation in %)4.6-1.2-15.65.111.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.0-0.6-15.41.319.7
International Reserves (USD)304341356373421
External Debt (% of GDP)24.023.223.220.7-  

Sample Report

5 years of India economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

India Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.44-0.04 %Dec 14
Exchange Rate71.92-0.09 %Dec 14
Stock Market35,963-0.08 %Dec 14

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

India Economic News

Search form