Iceland Economic Outlook
January 29, 2019Economic momentum likely remained weak in the last quarter of 2018, following a marked deceleration in Q3 due largely to a sharp contraction in business and residential investment. Indeed, the tourism sector appears to have cooled in Q4, though the krona’s sharp fall in the quarter could support the sector going forward. While overnight tourist stays posted strong year-on-year growth in October, they were flat in November, pushing down occupancy rates as supply expanded. Moreover, airport data for December also suggests more muted tourism activity in the month. On the flipside, the labor market remained tight, with real wage growth increasing at a solid pace throughout 2018 despite softening in Q4.
Iceland Economic GrowthGrowth should slow this year as the tourism boom fades. Softer momentum in the sector could also impact the construction and housing industries, undermining residential investment growth. Our panelists expect GDP to rise 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.
Iceland Economy Data
5 years of Iceland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.23||-0.99 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||119.5||-0.52 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||1,277||-0.32 %||Jan 30|
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