Iceland Economic Forecast

Iceland Economic Outlook

June 26, 2018

Economic growth surged in the first quarter of 2018 to the best performance since Q4 2016, following a disappointing slowdown at the end of last year. Gains in the quarter were broad based, fueled by both private consumption and investment; the external sector also recorded a robust performance. Dynamism in the tourism sector was likely a major factor, driving residential construction investment to surge by over a third year-on-year, and supporting healthy gains in the labor market. This likely continued into Q2: In May, real wages surged and unemployment fell, as Iceland entered its tourism high season.

Iceland Economic Growth

Growth in the tourism sector should soften somewhat this year after exceptional gains in 2017, leading to a moderation of economic activity as private consumption growth slows. Investment growth should also moderate from the high levels recorded in previous years, while the strong krona will drag on export momentum. Our panelists expect GDP to rise 3.3% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2019.

Iceland Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.30.30.30.30.3
GDP per capita (USD)46,01251,67251,05159,52470,588
GDP (USD bn)15.017.017.020.024.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.32.24.37.53.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.83.24.77.17.8
Investment (annual variation in %)2.216.518.722.59.3
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)6.73.29.211.94.8
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.19.813.814.511.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.06.611.012.39.1
Unemployment Rate5.44.94.03.02.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.8-0.1-0.812.61.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)84.381.867.652.711.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.92.11.61.71.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.4-0.75.1-8.1-4.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.004.505.755.004.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)27.511.638.0-6.74.7
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)158.5154.3141.3119.1124.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)162.2154.9146.3133.7120.5
Current Account (% of GDP)5.94.05.37.73.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.90.70.91.50.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-0.3-0.6-1.2-2.2

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Iceland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.34-0.99 %Jul 17
Exchange Rate116.7-0.52 %Jul 17
Stock Market1,268-0.32 %Jul 17

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