Hungary Economic Forecast

Hungary Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

Although GDP growth likely moderated in the fourth quarter of 2018, the performance of the economy remained robust, supported by sturdy domestic demand. This followed an impressive showing in the third quarter, which saw surging fixed investment and consumer spending soaring on the back of an extremely tight labor market. Industrial production expanded at a healthy pace in October-November, fueled by solid domestic sales, and business sentiment was upbeat throughout the quarter, which bodes well for private-sector activity. Meanwhile, retail sales recorded robust expansions in the first two months of the quarter, underpinned by notable wage growth and low unemployment, although the pace of increase was lower on average than in Q3. On the political front, protests against Hungary’s overtime work law continued in January, although they are unlikely to influence the government’s political mandate.

Hungary Economic Growth

Growth is set to moderate this year following an outstanding 2018, but will nevertheless remain robust. Fixed investment should continue to increase solidly, although its pace of expansion will likely slow due to rising interest rates and reduced inflows of EU funds. Likewise, household spending should remain healthy on tight labor market conditions and rising wages, although it will moderate due to stronger inflationary pressures. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.

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Hungary Facts

Bond Yield2.790.0 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate281.9-0.68 %Feb 14
Stock Market39,8990.04 %Feb 14

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