Hong Kong Economic Outlook
May 22, 2018Exceptional gains in domestic spending propelled economic growth to a seven-year high in the first quarter. Household consumption was buttressed by record-low unemployment and a rise in asset values, particularly in the housing market. Meanwhile, the external sector also posted robust gains thanks to a rebound in tourism and strong global demand. Momentum appeared to be waning heading into Q2, however, with survey data pointing towards weaker demand from mainland China in March and April, signaling a likely slowdown. In addition, recent events exerted further downward pressure on growth prospects, most notably the ongoing trade dispute between China and the United States. The tensions are weighing on business sentiment and could disrupt investment if escalated.
Hong Kong Economic GrowthDespite a robust first quarter, economic growth appears set to moderate somewhat this year due to slower demand from mainland China offsetting otherwise buoyant global tailwinds. Stronger government spending, wage growth, and buoyant asset prices should nevertheless support higher private consumption growth. However, an acceleration of interest rate hikes in the U.S. could cloud the outlook, as it would likely dampen asset prices—notably housing—by attracting capital away from Hong Kong’s asset markets. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.3% in 2018, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2019.
Hong Kong Economy Data
5 years of Hong Kong economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Hong Kong Facts
|Bond Yield||2.37||3.38 %||May 21|
|Exchange Rate||7.85||-0.11 %||May 21|
|Stock Market||31,234||-1.92 %||May 21|
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Hong Kong Economic News
May 11, 2018
The economy started 2018 at full throttle, registering impressive 4.7% year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter, a sizeable acceleration from the 3.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter.
May 4, 2018
In April, the Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, fell from 50.6 in March to 49.1, a clear warning signal that the growth momentum observed in the region in past quarters waned at the start of Q2.
May 3, 2018
Retail sales volumes rose a robust 11.0% in annual terms in March, down from a stellar 28.2% expansion in February, which had largely been due to the seasonal effects of the Lunar New Year holiday—the Lunar New Year was in February this year as opposed to January in the previous year.
April 23, 2018
Inflation ticked down to 2.6% in March, easing from February’s 3.1% as the Lunar New Year holiday-pricing base effect wore away.
April 6, 2018
In March, the Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, dipped from February’s four-year high 51.7 to 50.6.