Hong Kong Economic Outlook
October 16, 2018Economic activity in the third quarter likely softened somewhat—following a deceleration in the second quarter—primarily due to an ongoing slowdown in the mainland combined with the effects of the US-China trade war, which is weighing on the external sector’s momentum as well as overall business sentiment. Retail sales growth picked up in August from July’s six-month low but remained below Q2’s solid average, while the PMI remained firmly anchored in contraction territory in Q3, with the average quarterly reading exactly matching that of Q2. Lastly, the island’s high-flying property market is showing signs of weakening amid elevated prices and rising interest rates, and many market analysts expect a sharp correction heading into next year.
Hong Kong Economic GrowthThe economy is seen decelerating in 2019 and 2020 due to sizable headwinds looming ahead. Particularly, a sharp economic downturn in China, the rapidly escalating trade war between China and the United States, a strengthening of the HKD against regional peers and rapidly rising interest rates all will likely weigh on the country’s solid growth trajectory. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
Hong Kong Economy Data
5 years of Hong Kong economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Hong Kong Facts
|Bond Yield||2.48||3.38 %||Oct 18|
|Exchange Rate||7.84||-0.11 %||Oct 18|
|Stock Market||25,455||-1.92 %||Oct 18|
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Hong Kong Economic News
October 4, 2018
The Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is released by IHS Markit, fell from 48.5 in August to 47.9 in September.
October 2, 2018
Retail sales volumes expanded 8.1% in annual terms in August, accelerating from July’s six-month low print of 5.9%. The higher print in August largely reflected a rebound of sales volumes for food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (excluding supermarkets), as well as clothing, footwear and allied products.
September 20, 2018
Inflation fell slightly from July’s 2.4% to 2.3% in August.
September 5, 2018
The Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is released by IHS Markit, inched up from 48.2 in July to 48.5 in August.
August 30, 2018
Retail sales volumes expanded 5.9% in annual terms in July, decelerating from June’s 9.8% increase and marking the weakest reading since February. The slowdown mainly reflected declining sales for food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco as well as for supermarket sales.