Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

November 6, 2018

The economy likely remained in good health in the third quarter, as highlighted by the monthly indicator of economic activity. In August, the economy was in part buttressed by the financial services sector, which benefitted from higher interest payments on private sector loans, and the manufacturing industry. However, the external sector has performed less positively so far this year, with the trade deficit widening year-on-year in the January–August period. This was due to a drop in foreign demand for coffee, palm oil and shrimp. Import growth, meanwhile, hit double-digits as local demand for raw materials and capital goods increased.

Honduras Economic Growth

Solid private consumption and robust in government spending and fixed investment should support the economy next year. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month, before decelerating to 3.5% in 2020. However, the ending of Hondurans’ temporary protected status in the U.S. in 2020, which could significantly affect remittances inflows, clouds the outlook.

Honduras Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.88.08.18.28.3
GDP per capita (USD)2,3542,4622,5802,6472,774
GDP (USD bn)18.519.620.821.723.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.13.83.84.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.71.73.64.34.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.90.612.3-6.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.9-4.3-3.0-2.8-2.7
Money (annual variation in %)8.513.18.112.912.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.95.82.43.34.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.26.13.22.73.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)20.2820.65-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)20.5921.6322.4523.1823.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.3821.1322.1122.8023.42
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-7.1-4.8-2.8-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.4-1.0-0.6-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.9-2.6-2.6
Exports (USD billion)7.88.18.27.98.7
Imports (USD billion)11.011.111.211.611.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.64.01.3-3.59.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.71.20.8-5.57.2
International Reserves (USD)3.13.43.73.84.7
External Debt (% of GDP)36.336.635.834.537.3

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Honduras Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate24.16-0.03 %Nov 13

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