Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

July 11, 2018

In Q1, the economy decelerated for the second consecutive quarter in annual terms on the back of a moderation in private and public consumption growth and a contraction in fixed investment. Government expenditure growth likely eased in line with a more prudent fiscal stance following the implementation of a fiscal responsibility law as part of a recently concluded IMF program. In contrast, the external sector performed well, with export growth outpacing import growth. The economy began Q2 in moderate fashion, with economic activity growth slowing for the eighth time in nine months in April.

Honduras Economic Growth

Robust remittances inflows should buttress private consumption growth, which, coupled with healthy manufacturing output, should spur economic activity this year. However, the end of Hondurans’ temporary protected status in the U.S. in 2020 poses a risk to remittances in the medium-term. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.7% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2019.

Honduras Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.88.08.18.28.3
GDP per capita (USD)2,3542,4622,5802,6472,774
GDP (USD bn)18.519.620.821.723.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.13.83.84.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.71.73.64.34.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.90.612.3-6.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.9-4.3-3.0-2.8-2.7
Money (annual variation in %)8.513.18.112.912.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.95.82.43.34.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.26.13.22.73.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)20.2820.65-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)20.5921.6322.4523.1823.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.3821.1322.1122.8023.42
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-7.1-4.8-2.8-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.4-1.0-0.6-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.9-2.6-2.6
Exports (USD billion)7.88.18.27.98.7
Imports (USD billion)11.011.111.211.611.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.64.01.3-3.59.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.71.20.8-5.57.2
International Reserves (USD)3.13.43.73.84.7
External Debt (% of GDP)36.336.635.834.537.3

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Honduras Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate23.95-0.03 %Jul 13

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