Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

May 14, 2019

The economy appears to have slowed in the first quarter of the year. Economic activity growth softened further in February after January’s slowdown, weighed on by falling mining and quarrying supply, while growth in agricultural activity eased. On a brighter note, the financial and insurance sector continued to post strong gains. Merchandise trade data echoed the moderation: Exports contracted on weaker revenue from coffee, gold, palm oil and banana shipments, in the face of depressed commodity prices, especially for coffee. In other news, in early May the IMF and Honduras agreed on a two-year standby facility of USD 311 million. The precautionary credit arrangement will support economic reforms focused on improving the sustainability of the public finances.

Honduras Economic Growth

The outlook for this year remains favorable and strong domestic demand should continue to support growth. However, the outlook is clouded by fluctuations in commodity prices, uncertain U.S. foreign policy regarding development funding and the potential termination of Hondurans’ TPS in 2020. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 3.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.

Honduras Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.88.08.18.28.3
GDP per capita (USD)2,3542,4622,5802,6472,774
GDP (USD bn)18.519.620.821.723.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.13.83.84.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.71.73.64.34.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.90.612.3-6.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.9-4.3-3.0-2.8-2.7
Money (annual variation in %)8.513.18.112.912.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.95.82.43.34.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.26.13.22.73.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)20.2820.65-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)20.5921.6322.4523.1823.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.3821.1322.1122.8023.42
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-7.1-4.8-2.8-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.4-1.0-0.6-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.9-2.6-2.6
Exports (USD billion)7.88.18.27.98.7
Imports (USD billion)11.011.111.211.611.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.64.01.3-3.59.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.71.20.8-5.57.2
International Reserves (USD)3.13.43.73.84.7
External Debt (% of GDP)36.336.635.834.537.3

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Honduras Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate24.11-0.03 %May 13

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