Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

September 12, 2018

Available data suggests that growth shifted into a higher gear in Q2. The monthly index of economic activity was markedly higher in Q2 compared to Q1, which was likely supported by robust expansions in the mining; transport and storage; construction; and financial sectors. However, the external sector likely limited the expansion, as exports decreased sharply in Q2 despite strong manufacturing exports. This led the trade deficit to increase substantially in annual terms in Q2, following an earlier widening in Q1.

Honduras Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain robust this year, thanks to sustained private consumption and a pickup in government expenditure which should drive domestic demand. However, the ending of Hondurans’ temporary protected status in the U.S. in 2020 is a key downside risk as it would affect remittances. Our panel expects growth of 3.5% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2019.

Honduras Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.88.08.18.28.3
GDP per capita (USD)2,3542,4622,5802,6472,774
GDP (USD bn)18.519.620.821.723.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.13.83.84.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.71.73.64.34.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.90.612.3-6.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.9-4.3-3.0-2.8-2.7
Money (annual variation in %)8.513.18.112.912.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.95.82.43.34.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.26.13.22.73.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)20.2820.65-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)20.5921.6322.4523.1823.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.3821.1322.1122.8023.42
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-7.1-4.8-2.8-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.4-1.0-0.6-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.9-2.6-2.6
Exports (USD billion)7.88.18.27.98.7
Imports (USD billion)11.011.111.211.611.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.64.01.3-3.59.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.71.20.8-5.57.2
International Reserves (USD)3.13.43.73.84.7
External Debt (% of GDP)36.336.635.834.537.3

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Honduras Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate24.01-0.03 %Sep 20

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