Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

October 9, 2018

The economic situation remains dire heading into the new fiscal year, after political instability this summer rocked the Caribbean country. The Minister of Economy and Finance Ronald Décembre recently noted several worrying signs, including: rampant inflation, a sharp depreciation of the gourde and a poor tax collection performance, which will likely cause the fiscal position to deteriorate this year. Recent reports indicate the government could soon reverse its March decision to prohibit payment in currencies other than the gourde, which caused the HTG to depreciate further.

Haiti Economic Growth

Although growth is projected to edge up next year, the country’s prospects remain hampered by rampant corruption and political instability. It is also vulnerable to the possible ending of the temporary protected status for Haitians in the U.S. from July 2019 onwards, which would hit all-important remittance inflows. Met the why particular panelists foresee growth of 2.0% in 2018. The panel expects the economy to expand 2.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Haiti Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.411.611.711.811.0
GDP per capita (USD)804819793705776
GDP (USD bn)8.48.78.57.78.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.22.81.21.51.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.70.92.31.22.7
Investment (annual variation in %)6.12.13.61.10.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.2-6.4-2.5-0.1-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)21.526.330.233.931.1
Money (annual variation in %)6.38.914.65.511.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.46.412.514.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.94.69.013.814.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)11.2511.2512.5013.3311.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)43.8846.7556.7067.3963.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)43.4745.2249.8763.3064.77
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-8.8-3.2-1.1-2.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.8-0.3-0.1-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.7-2.4-2.2-2.6
Exports (USD billion)0.91.01.01.01.0
Imports (USD billion)3.33.73.43.23.6
Exports (annual variation in %)18.15.07.1-3.3-1.5
Imports (annual variation in %)8.111.1-5.9-7.713.6
International Reserves (USD)2.42.01.92.12.4
External Debt (% of GDP)18.622.424.528.2-  

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Haiti Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate70.35-1.13 %Oct 16

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