Guatemala Economic Outlook
May 14, 2019Weaker growth dynamics appear to have carried over into the first quarter of the year, on the heels of the slight slowdown in the final quarter of last year. Although the monthly economic activity indicator picked up in March thanks to solid activity in key sectors, March’s result capped much weaker growth in Q1 than seen in the previous quarter. Moreover, although merchandise exports in March declined at a much softer pace than in February, the external sector is still likely to have detracted from growth in Q1. Turning to Q2, remittance inflows gained traction in April but the expansion remained well below the stellar growth reported throughout the second half of 2018. This suggests household spending will likely soften going forward.
Guatemala Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to grow at a broadly stable pace in 2019. Stronger fixed investment and fiscal stimulus should buttress domestic demand. A slowdown in the U.S. economy, which would likely dampen remittances, threatens the outlook. Moreover, rising political uncertainty due to the presidential election on 16 June could dent consumer and investor confidence. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.66||0.22 %||May 13|
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Guatemala Economic News
May 8, 2019
Economic activity growth accelerated to 2.7% in March from 1.9% in February.
May 7, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.60% over the previous month in April, contrasting the 0.04% decrease registered in March.
May 6, 2019
Remittances from workers abroad rose at a solid 12.5% pace in April, up from the 9.6% increase logged in March.
April 4, 2019
The pace of economic growth in the Guatemalan economy was virtually unchanged in the final quarter of last year as the economy expanded 3.5% year-on-year, slightly down from the third quarter’s revised 3.6% increase (previously reported: +3.5% year-on-year).
April 4, 2019
Economic activity growth dropped to 1.9% in February, down from January’s 3.4% increase.