Guatemala Economic Outlook
August 7, 2018Economic activity is expected to have picked up pace in the second quarter, recovering from the first quarter’s multi-year low. The average reading of the Central Bank’s monthly economic activity index in April and May trended above the average reading recorded in the first quarter. Indeed, growth in economic activity reached the highest level in April since October of last year. Data for April and May pointed towards a robust manufacturing sector, while the financial sector and wholesale and retail trade also chipped in. Moreover, annual growth in remittances in the second quarter more than tripled the first quarter’s pace of expansion. In USD value terms, remittances reached the highest monthly level on record in May. In June, confidence in the economy increased after two consecutive drops on the back of a rosier view on the current economic situation and in the next six months.
Guatemala Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to shift into a higher gear this year, thanks to robust domestic demand. A tight labor market and strong remittances growth should support household consumption growth, while government expenditure is likely to increase sharply due to infrastructure spending. However, downside risks include potential political and economic uncertainty in the lead-up to next year’s presidential elections. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.1% this year, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.3% in 2019.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.49||0.22 %||Aug 15|
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Guatemala Economic News
August 11, 2018
Data from Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual de la Actividad Económica) showed that economic activity growth was flat month-on-month in June, contrasting May’s revised 0.7% expansion (previously reported: +0.4% month-on-month). Growth in economic activity was stable at May’s 3.2% in June on a year-on-year unadjusted basis.
August 7, 2018
Consumer prices in Guatemala increased 0.36% in July over the previous month, easing from June’s 0.57% increase.
August 1, 2018
Remittances from workers abroad grew 11.8% over the same month a year ago in June, picking up speed from the previous month’s 8.2% growth.
July 11, 2018
Consumer prices in Guatemala increased 0.57% in June over the prior month, accelerating from May’s 0.47% increase.
Guatemala: Economic growth slows to multi-year low in the first quarter of 2018 on a broad-based slowdown
July 9, 2018
In the first quarter of the year, the economy grew at the slowest pace since the third quarter of 2011, according to recently released national accounts data.