Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

May 15, 2018

The economy is expected to have performed well in the first quarter. Economic activity edged higher throughout the quarter and in March hit the highest pace since April 2017. Growth was likely underpinned by private consumption, which benefited from low unemployment and strong remittances amid a healthy U.S. economy. In April, growth in remittances soared, boding well for private consumption in the second quarter. However, in the same month sentiment among businesses eased due to a less rosy outlook on the general economic situation and investment prospects. Business confidence has been on a largely downward trajectory since March 2017, partly on the back of political uncertainty. On a more positive note, Fitch Ratings affirmed Guatemala’s BB rating with a stable outlook, citing its resilient macroeconomic stability, stable government finances and low public debt.

Guatemala Economic Growth

Robust consumption and fixed investment growth are expected to support the economy this year and next. Remittance inflows should boost household consumption, while government expenditure will likely pick up on the back of infrastructure investments. However, private investment could be held back by pessimistic business sentiment. The Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panel expects the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.2% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.3% in 2019.

Guatemala Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.515.916.316.717.1
GDP per capita (USD)3,4883,6773,9354,113-  
GDP (USD bn)54.058.464.068.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.24.13.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.94.25.13.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.54.45.92.3-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.53.23.53.6-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.9-1.4-1.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.624.724.224.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)9.08.79.56.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.43.03.14.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.33.42.44.5-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.004.003.003.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.847.607.637.52-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.867.747.667.60-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.6-2.1-0.21.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.4-1.2-0.10.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-6.1-5.6-5.3-  
Exports (USD billion)11.211.011.811.4-  
Imports (USD billion)16.417.116.415.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.07.8-1.8-3.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)3.84.3-4.1-3.9-  
International Reserves (USD)7.37.37.89.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)13.112.131.5-  -  

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Guatemala Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate7.420.22 %May 21
Exchange Rate7.420.22 %May 21

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