Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

May 14, 2019

Weaker growth dynamics appear to have carried over into the first quarter of the year, on the heels of the slight slowdown in the final quarter of last year. Although the monthly economic activity indicator picked up in March thanks to solid activity in key sectors, March’s result capped much weaker growth in Q1 than seen in the previous quarter. Moreover, although merchandise exports in March declined at a much softer pace than in February, the external sector is still likely to have detracted from growth in Q1. Turning to Q2, remittance inflows gained traction in April but the expansion remained well below the stellar growth reported throughout the second half of 2018. This suggests household spending will likely soften going forward.

Guatemala Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a broadly stable pace in 2019. Stronger fixed investment and fiscal stimulus should buttress domestic demand. A slowdown in the U.S. economy, which would likely dampen remittances, threatens the outlook. Moreover, rising political uncertainty due to the presidential election on 16 June could dent consumer and investor confidence. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

Guatemala Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.615.916.316.616.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,4633,6653,9384,1264,467
GDP (USD bn)54.058.464.068.475.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.24.13.12.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.94.15.13.53.4
Investment (annual variation in %)1.54.45.92.73.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.54.63.73.01.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.9-1.4-1.1-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.624.724.324.223.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.08.79.56.68.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.43.03.14.25.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.33.42.44.54.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.004.003.003.002.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.847.607.637.527.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.867.747.667.607.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.6-2.1-0.21.51.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.4-1.2-0.11.01.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-6.1-5.6-5.2-6.0
Exports (USD billion)11.211.011.811.611.1
Imports (USD billion)16.417.116.415.817.1
Exports (annual variation in %)1.07.8-1.8-2.05.1
Imports (annual variation in %)3.84.3-4.1-3.98.5
International Reserves (USD)7.37.37.89.211.8
External Debt (% of GDP)31.933.131.631.0-  

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Guatemala Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate7.660.22 %May 13

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