Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

March 26, 2019

The economy lost steam in the final quarter of 2018, mainly on the back of waning domestic demand as private consumption barely grew and fixed investment plunged yet again. Soaring exports, however, cushioned the downturn. Looking ahead, available data points to stronger metrics at the outset of the year: Industrial production growth picked up in January, mainly thanks to soaring output in the electricity supply sector, and the PMI edged up in February, both signaling an improvement in business conditions in Q1. Meanwhile, Moody’s upgraded Greece’s credit rating by two notches from B3 to B1 on 1 March thanks to the progress made in enacting reforms. This, coupled with the government’s issuance of a 11-year bond on 5 March—the first since the country plunged into crisis in 2009—and buoyant demand for it, illustrates the increased market confidence in the country’s ongoing economic recovery.

Greece Economic Growth

Growth is seen holding largely steady this year, supported by stronger household spending, which should be aided by the increase in the minimum wage, and a rebound in fixed investment. A still-high proportion of sour loans burdening the banking sector; elevated public and private debt levels; and a further slowdown in the EU are key downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.8% in 2020.

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Greece Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.790.76 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Apr 12
Stock Market766-1.46 %Apr 12

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