Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

Available data suggests that the economy’s healthy performance in the third quarter of last year—although driven mainly by inventory accumulation—carried over into the final quarter. Industrial production rebounded strongly in November from a mild contraction in the previous month while the PMI average in Q4 came broadly in line with Q3’s, both indicating that factory activity kept up the momentum. On the demand front, unemployment remained at an over-seven year low in October which, coupled with improved consumer confidence throughout Q4 point to private consumption gaining some traction. In the political sphere, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras narrowly won a no confidence vote on 16 January, which he called for after his junior coalition partner pulled out of the government in protest over a name-change deal for Macedonia, improving his chances somewhat of serving out the rest of his term despite his party’s minority position in parliament.

Greece Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain largely steady this year, propped up by further gains in employment, some fiscal expansion and an improving business climate. Downside risks to the outlook include the backtracking of reforms, still-sizeable non-performing exposures on banks’ balance sheets and a slowdown in external demand. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.8% in 2020.

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Greece Facts

Bond Yield4.340.76 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Feb 14
Stock Market654-1.46 %Feb 14

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Greece Economic News

  • Greece: Industrial production growth slows in December

    February 8, 2019

    Industrial production rose 1.1% year-on-year in working-day adjusted terms in December, moderating from November’s revised 4.2% expansion (previously reported: +3.1% year-on-year), which had marked an over one-year high.

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  • Greece: Unemployment rate inches down in November

    February 7, 2019

    According to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), the number of unemployed workers fell by 5,948 in November compared with October while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate ticked down to 18.5% from 18.7% in the previous month.

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  • Greece: Manufacturing PMI ticks down in January

    February 1, 2019

    The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched down to a three-month low of 53.7 points in January from 53.8 points in December.

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  • Greece: Unemployment rate remains steady in October

    January 11, 2019

    According to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), the number of unemployed workers fell by 11,374 in October compared with September while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at September’s 18.6%.

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  • Greece: Industrial production rebounds in November

    January 9, 2019

    Industrial production rose a solid 3.1% year-on-year in working-day adjusted terms in November, rebounding from October’s revised 0.7% dip (previously reported: -1.1% year-on-year) and marking the strongest expansion in over a year.

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