Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

The Greek economy appears to be gradually strengthening, as it continues on a recovery path after years of crisis. GDP grew for a fourth consecutive period in Q4 2017, and the available data for Q1 suggests that growth firmed at the start of 2018. The unemployment rate dropped in January, and the manufacturing PMI pointed to healthy expansion in March, albeit receding slightly from February’s multi-year high. Moreover, recent data revealed that last year’s primary fiscal surplus came in at 4.2% of GDP, more than doubling bailout targets. The economy’s strong performance could help boost the government’s argument that additional austerity measures do not need to be brought forward and that the economy can stand on its own two feet in August, when the bailout expires. On 27 August, the Greek finance minister presented his government’s post-bailout growth strategy to Euro area finance ministers. According to media reports, the plan entails reducing bureaucracy, encouraging investment and a gradual increase in the minimum wage.

Greece Economic Growth

An improving labor market and recovering sentiment should help kick growth into a higher gear this year. The outcome of debt relief negotiations and a clean exit to the country’s bailout in August remain critical, however, to the economy’s long-term success. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2018, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is expected to be 2.1%.

Greece Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.011.911.911.911.8
GDP per capita (EUR)16,41716,28416,18216,211-  
GDP (EUR bn)181178176176-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.20.4-0.20.0-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-4.1-0.6-0.20.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.60.4-0.21.4-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.4-4.6-0.20.1-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.57.83.4-2.0-  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-2.47.60.3-0.4-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.2-1.91.02.5-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-8.1-0.4-1.5-0.6-  
Unemployment Rate27.526.525.023.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-13.1-3.7-5.90.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)177180177179-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)-1.8-2.50.40.3-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.9-1.4-1.10.0-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.9-1.2-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.05-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)28.1-28.9-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.21-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.33-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.0-1.60.1-0.6-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-3.7-2.90.2-1.1-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-15.2-17.0-14.3-16.0-  

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Greece Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.670.76 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Stock Market784-1.46 %May 21

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