Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

September 18, 2018

Although the full picture is still unclear, available economic data signals that the pace of growth decelerated in recent months. The PMI deteriorated markedly through August from May’s eight-month high, suggesting that momentum in Ghanaian business conditions continued to lose steam due to lower output and slower growth in new orders. On the other hand, exports accelerated significantly in the second quarter amid robust global demand for gold and cocoa, the country’s top export commodities. In addition, import growth slipped in Q2 as the weak cedi and elevated inflation weighed on consumer demand for foreign goods. In mid-September, the government agreed to coordinate a price floors for cocoa farmers with neighboring Cote d’Ivoire, in an effort to better control supply in the global market. Meanwhile, on 14 September, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Ghana’s credit rating from 'B-' to 'B' citing improved monetary policy effectiveness and banking sector stability.

Ghana Economic Growth

Growth is expected to taper in the coming years following last year’s robust outturn. Nevertheless, the expansion should remain solid and strong domestic demand will be propped up by buoyant private consumption and healthy investment activity. Meanwhile, the external sector is expected to perform sturdily next year amid a favorable price outlook for Ghana’s key commodity exports. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 6.8% in 2018 and 6.2% in 2019, which is 0.1 percentage points up from last month’s forecast.

Ghana Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.626.226.927.628.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7671,4181,3461,5111,654
GDP (USD bn)45.237.236.242.446.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.34.03.83.78.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)15.9-5.94.32.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-26.119.76.6-12.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.8-0.3-0.516.7
Unemployment Rate2.22.22.22.32.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.1-11.1-6.9-8.7-5.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)56.870.272.273.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.233.026.624.619.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.817.017.715.411.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.315.517.217.512.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.203.203.814.304.54
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0021.0026.0025.5020.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.073.053.783.944.11
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.6-9.9-7.8-6.7-4.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-3.7-2.8-2.8-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-1.4-3.2-1.81.1
Exports (USD billion)13.813.211.311.113.8
Imports (USD billion)17.614.613.512.912.7
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-4.3-21.67.923.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-17.0-7.5-4.4-1.7
International Reserves (USD)5.65.55.96.27.6
External Debt (% of GDP)36.849.457.050.4-  

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Ghana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate4.920.0 %Oct 12
Stock Market0.40.0 %Oct 12

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