Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

The economy appears to have remained buoyant at the beginning of the year, keeping up the momentum that brought full-year GDP growth to a five-year high in 2017. Firm PMI readings in the January–April period point to a sustained expansion in business conditions, likely on the back of robust domestic demand, which was buttressed by retreating inflationary pressures and easing monetary policy in the period. However, the contribution of the external sector slowed at the beginning of 2018 despite elevated commodity prices, with export growth falling to single digits in February. The cooling could be signaling a potential slowdown in the country’s industrial production sector, due to a weakening mining outlook.

Ghana Economic Growth

Robust household consumption and healthy investment activity should buoy domestic demand this year, fueling overall economic activity. Commodity exports, including of oil, gold and cocoa will, however, continue to be the backbone of the economy, and an expected favorable global commodity price outlook and a projected increase in oil production should drive growth this year. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 7.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.2% in 2019.

Ghana Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.626.226.927.628.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7671,4181,3461,539-  
GDP (USD bn)45.237.236.242.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.34.03.83.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.45.34.32.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.52.86.6-12.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.8-0.3-1.4-  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.0-11.9-6.9-8.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)60.372.272.272.5-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.233.026.624.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.817.017.715.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.315.517.217.5-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0021.0026.0025.50-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.373.193.814.30-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.073.053.783.94-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.6-9.9-7.8-6.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-3.7-2.8-2.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-1.3-3.2-1.8-  
Exports (USD billion)13.813.211.311.1-  
Imports (USD billion)17.614.513.512.9-  
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-4.3-21.67.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-17.7-7.5-4.4-  
International Reserves (USD)5.65.55.96.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)36.849.457.1-  -  

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Ghana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate4.640.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate4.640.0 %May 21
Stock Market0.20.0 %May 21
Stock Market0.20.0 %May 21

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