Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

Growth surged to a one-year high in the third quarter of 2018, thanks to robust activity in the non-oil economy. The industrial sector once again led the expansion, growing at a double-digit pace in large part thanks to booming mining and quarrying output. Furthermore, the agricultural sector continued to expand healthily in Q3, helped by higher crop yields, while the services sector posted strong gains on the back of a solid expansion in the health and social work sub-sector. In addition, external sector metrics improved again in the third quarter: Exports rose at the highest rate since Q2 2017, propped up by higher oil exports. Meanwhile, incoming data suggests solid growth carried over into the fourth quarter. The PMI hit a six-month high in December amid improving demand conditions in the domestic market, leading to a strong increase in new orders.

Ghana Economic Growth

The economy should remain steady this year, with elevated consumer spending and healthy investment activity growth spearheading the overall expansion. Furthermore, a favorable price outlook for Ghana’s key export commodities bodes well for the country’s external sector performance. High debts levels and the volatile energy and financial sectors pose key risks to the outlook, however. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to expand 6.0% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.7% in 2020.

Ghana Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.626.226.927.628.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7671,4181,3461,5111,654
GDP (USD bn)45.237.236.242.446.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.34.03.83.78.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)15.9-5.94.32.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-26.119.76.6-12.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.8-0.3-0.516.7
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.1-11.1-6.9-8.7-5.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)56.870.272.273.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.233.026.624.619.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.817.017.715.411.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.315.517.217.512.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0021.0026.0025.5020.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.203.203.814.304.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.073.053.783.944.11
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.6-9.9-7.8-6.7-4.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-3.7-2.8-2.8-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-1.4-3.2-1.81.1
Exports (USD billion)13.813.211.311.113.8
Imports (USD billion)17.614.613.512.912.7
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-4.3-21.67.923.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-17.0-7.5-4.4-1.7
International Reserves (USD)5.65.55.96.27.6
External Debt (% of GDP)36.849.457.050.4-  

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Ghana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate5.180.0 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 14

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