Germany Economic Outlook
November 20, 2018Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she will step down as CDU-party chief in December and as chancellor when her current term ends in 2021, which could create a power vacuum in the heart of Europe. The news came in the wake of the Bavarian and Hessian state elections in which the ‘grand coalition’ partners lost ground to the opposition and the far-right AfD. Against the backdrop of increasing political turmoil and following a series of disappointing monthly data, national accounts data showed that the economy shrank for the first time in over three years in the third quarter. This was chiefly due to a weaker external sector, which weighed on the economy and likely suffered from trade-related uncertainties and some one-off effects. Meanwhile, domestic demand painted a mixed picture with private consumption decreasing despite elevated consumer confidence and a low unemployment rate. The economy is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter. Business sentiment was robust in October and consumer sentiment remained elevated through November. The composite PMI, furthermore, continued to indicate improved business conditions, although the growth rate remains at a two-year low.
Germany Economic GrowthResilient domestic demand and a pick-up in exports growth should buttress the economy next year. Private consumption is expected to benefit from the minimum wage increase from 1 January. However, a disorderly Brexit and a flare-up in tensions between the EU and the United States remain dark clouds on the horizon. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 1.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.
Germany Economy Data
5 years of Germany economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.25||0.41 %||Dec 14|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Dec 14|
|Stock Market||11,866||-0.41 %||Dec 14|
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Germany Economic News
December 18, 2018
Business confidence declined for the third consecutive month in December, with the headline figure dropping from 112 in November to 111 in December.
December 14, 2018
On 7 December, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer beat Friedrich Merz and Jens Spahn in a close race to become the governing CDU’s new leader.
December 14, 2018
At the end of the year, the composite Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI) dropped from a revised 52.3 in November (previously reported: 52.2) to a four year low of 52.2 in December.
December 13, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.1% over the previous month in November, down from October’s 0.2% rise.
December 11, 2018
October trade data provided some relief amid questions over the state of the German economy.