Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

Available data suggests growth picked up slightly in the last quarter of 2018, following a somewhat disappointing third-quarter outturn amid contractions in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Economic activity growth rebounded strongly in December, following a particularly weak performance in November when election-related uncertainties likely ate into consumption and investment gains. As a result, economic activity growth, on average, accelerated slightly in Q4 compared to Q3. In addition, exports continued to post double-digit growth in Q4, on the back of booming demand for commodities and motor cars, particularly from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

Georgia Economic Growth

Growth is seen losing pace this year, but should remain solid nonetheless, propped up by robust investment activity amid increased inflows of EU development funds. Meanwhile, medium-term growth should benefit from improved resilience of the financial system due to the implementation of structural reforms. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 4.6% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in 2020.

Georgia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.83.73.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,2984,4293,8023,9464,284
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3073,2353,4133,5523,756
GDP (USD bn)16.316.514.114.615.8
GDP (EUR bn)12.512.112.713.113.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.44.62.92.84.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.1-2.0-1.1-1.4-0.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.735.641.444.644.9
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)33.29.1-2.512.929.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.53.14.02.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.754.008.006.507.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.741.882.112.662.59
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.661.762.272.372.51
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.392.282.612.813.11
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.212.342.522.622.83
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-11.3-12.7-13.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.9-1.8-1.9-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.1-5.7-5.5-7.7-5.3
Exports (USD billion)2.92.92.22.12.7
Imports (USD billion)8.08.67.79.98.0
Exports (annual variation in %)22.5-1.7-22.9-4.129.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.47.2-11.127.5-19.0
International Reserves (USD)2.62.52.32.62.8
External Debt (% of GDP)82.684.7118119119

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Georgia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.640.0 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.55 %Feb 14

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