Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

Annual GDP rose 5.5% in Q2—the strongest print in nearly four years—sustained by a solid performance from the external sector. Merchandise exports soared in Q2 due robust demand from CIS countries. Available data suggests momentum carried over into Q3: the lari held its ground against major currencies throughout Q3, while higher private sector lending and an accommodative monetary policy environment likely buoyed domestic demand in August. Nevertheless, the depreciation of the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira crisis signal potential headwinds to the Georgian economy H2 2018 due to an adverse impact on trade, remittances and tourism. On 28 October, Georgians will head to presidential polls in what will be the last direct presidential vote—a College of Electors will elect the president going forward.

Georgia Economic Growth

Robust domestic demand should prop up growth this year and next on the back of solid investment activity and healthy private consumption growth. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 5.1% in 2018 and 4.7% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.

Georgia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.83.73.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,2984,4293,8023,9464,284
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3073,2353,4133,5523,756
GDP (USD bn)16.316.514.114.615.8
GDP (EUR bn)12.512.112.713.113.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.44.62.92.84.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.1-2.0-1.1-1.4-0.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.735.641.444.644.9
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)33.29.1-2.512.929.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.53.14.02.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.754.008.006.507.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.741.882.112.662.59
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.661.762.272.372.51
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.392.282.612.813.11
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.212.342.522.622.83
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-11.3-12.7-13.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.9-1.8-1.9-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.1-5.7-5.5-7.7-5.3
Exports (USD billion)2.92.92.22.12.7
Imports (USD billion)8.08.67.79.98.0
Exports (annual variation in %)22.5-1.7-22.9-4.129.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.47.2-11.127.5-19.0
International Reserves (USD)2.62.52.32.62.8
External Debt (% of GDP)82.684.7118119119

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Georgia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.700.0 %Oct 18
Stock Market0.50.55 %Oct 18

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