Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

According to preliminary data, annual growth accelerated to 4.5% in Q4 2018 (Q3: +3.7%). This brought the expansion for the whole year to 4.7%, a notch below the previous year’s result. A rebound in manufacturing activity, as well as a marked improvement in the construction sector following the largest contraction in five years in Q3, drove the quarterly acceleration. Meanwhile, quickening retail trade activity and higher turnover in hotels and restaurants hinted at healthy consumer demand dynamics in Q4, which was likely propped up by lower inflation and healthy labor market conditions. On a less positive note, foreign direct investment slumped significantly in 2018, weighing on overall growth. Moreover, metrics from the first quarter of this year appear less upbeat, as reflected by economic activity growth slowing in January-February.

Georgia Economic Growth

Growth is seen losing some traction this year due to feebler external demand and slower private sector credit growth, although it should remain robust nonetheless. Strong consumer demand, underpinned by broadly stable inflation and a tightening labor market, and upbeat investment activity, bolstered by higher infrastructure spending, will power the economy. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 4.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in 2020.

Georgia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.83.73.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,2984,4293,8023,9464,284
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3073,2353,4133,5523,756
GDP (USD bn)16.316.514.114.615.8
GDP (EUR bn)12.512.112.713.113.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.44.62.92.84.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.1-2.0-1.1-1.4-0.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.735.641.444.644.9
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)33.29.1-2.512.929.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.53.14.02.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.754.008.006.507.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.741.882.112.662.59
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.661.762.272.372.51
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.392.282.612.813.11
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.212.342.522.622.83
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-11.3-12.7-13.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.9-1.8-1.9-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.1-5.7-5.5-7.7-5.3
Exports (USD billion)2.92.92.22.12.7
Imports (USD billion)8.08.67.79.98.0
Exports (annual variation in %)22.5-1.7-22.9-4.129.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.47.2-11.127.5-19.0
International Reserves (USD)2.62.52.32.62.8
External Debt (% of GDP)82.684.7118119119

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Georgia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.700.0 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.10.55 %Apr 12

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