Finland Economic Forecast

Finland Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

The economy appeared to hold up well in the fourth quarter, after growth ticked up slightly in the third quarter due to a surge in inventories and despite falling private consumption, fixed investment and exports. The resilience in Q4 was particularly evident in the labor market as displayed by the unemployment rate in December, which fell to its lowest level since November 2008. Moreover, in November, the current account balance logged a surplus for the first time in over a year on a stronger merchandise trade balance. However, growth likely remained fragile as evidenced by November’s slowdown in economic activity growth, which was weighed on by softening services production.

Finland Economic Growth

Economic growth is seen moderating this year but should draw strength from a tighter labor market buttressing private consumption and continued accommodative monetary policy from the ECB—despite a gradual tightening—supporting fixed investment. Nevertheless, the government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation will constrain public consumption growth. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 1.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.

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Finland Facts

Bond Yield0.463.70 %Jan 29
Exchange Rate8.43-0.38 %Jan 30
Stock Market4,0230.0 %Jan 30

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