Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

After over a month in office, new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is moving swiftly to cool political tensions, promising to open up Ethiopia’s political space. In mid-May, government officials held talks with the Oromo Democratic Front, an exiled opposition group, and Abiy has also stated that he is considering introducing term limits for prime ministers. The pledge to expand civil rights in the state-controlled country is in response to anti-government protests, which led to the resignation of the previous prime minister and interfered with policy making. A return to political stability should bode well for the economy and help reattract investors spooked by recent violence. In addition, Abiy has vowed to tackle corruption, which would also bode well for the business climate if successful.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Strong public spending should fuel buoyant growth, and GDP is seen expanding 8.1% in FY 2018, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. However, severe foreign currency shortages remain a cause for concern. Our panelists see growth at 8.0% in FY 2019.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)87.088.389.891.292.7
GDP per capita (USD)611731807-  -  
GDP (USD bn)55.664.672.4-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.311.48.0-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.5-1.9-2.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.354.654.956.9-  
Money (annual variation in %)22.329.121.725.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.111.06.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.17.411.17.3-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.0520.3321.2622.11-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18.7219.7220.7621.90-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-11.0-11.1-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-7.1-8.0-8.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6-  
Exports (USD billion)3.03.42.92.8-  
Imports (USD billion)12.115.416.716.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.613.1-13.4-3.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)2.627.28.8-1.9-  
International Reserves (USD)2.53.23.4-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.625.728.2-  -  

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate27.520.01 %May 21
Exchange Rate27.520.01 %May 21
Stock Market0.60.0 %May 21
Stock Market0.60.0 %May 21

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