Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Although growth slowed in FY 2017 as mining activity slumped and agricultural production stumbled, the economy expanded solidly overall on the back of strong increases in the manufacturing and services sectors. Moreover, robust annual growth in investment projects and rising tax revenue in July-December 2018 suggest healthy momentum carried over into FY 2018. Meanwhile, on the political front, parliament ratified the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement in late March, which has been signed by 52 African countries and should boost continental trade. Furthermore, in early April, parliament approved several financial assistance agreements with different international partners, amounting to almost USD 230 million available for infrastructure and urban sanitation projects.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Growing agricultural production and the continued infrastructure push should underpin activity in FY 2019. However, the intensity and sustainability of economic growth will depend on the political and economic liberalization program under the guidance of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Elections scheduled next year and limited FX liquidity also pose risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 8.2% in FY 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.8% in FY 2020.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)87.088.389.891.292.7
GDP per capita (USD)611731807884-  
GDP (USD bn)55.664.672.480.6-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.411.48.011.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-1.9-2.4-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.854.055.056.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)22.329.121.725.121.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.111.06.713.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.17.411.17.39.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.0520.3321.2622.1127.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18.7219.7220.7621.9024.07
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-11.0-11.1-8.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-7.1-8.0-6.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6-  
Exports (USD billion)3.03.42.92.8-  
Imports (USD billion)12.115.416.716.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.613.1-13.4-3.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)2.627.28.8-1.9-  
International Reserves (USD)2.53.23.43.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.625.327.828.6-  

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate28.510.01 %May 13
Stock Market0.30.0 %May 13

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