Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

February 19, 2019

Economic growth cooled in fiscal year 2017, as production in the important agricultural sector increased only modestly and the pace of expansion in the industrial sector softened. The slowdown in the industrial sector was chiefly driven by a moderation in infrastructure spending, as the government reduced capital imports in an attempt to alleviate dollar shortages. That said, the banking sector continued to enjoy good financial health. In early February, the country’s mines and petroleum minister announced the forthcoming adoption of a comprehensive reform of the mining and oil sectors. Reflective of the government’s attempts to open up the economy, the reform will aim to improve the fiscal regime in order to attract more foreign investment and thus also ease dollar shortages.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Economic activity should pick-up in FY 2018, powered by an improving business environment and solid public investment spending. A weak external liquidity position, however, clouds the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 8.1% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.9% in FY 2019.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)87.088.389.891.292.7
GDP per capita (USD)611731807884-  
GDP (USD bn)55.664.672.480.6-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.411.48.011.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-1.9-2.4-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.854.055.056.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)22.329.121.725.121.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.111.06.713.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.17.411.17.39.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.0520.3321.2622.1127.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18.7219.7220.7621.9024.07
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-11.0-11.1-8.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-7.1-8.0-6.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6-  
Exports (USD billion)3.03.42.92.8-  
Imports (USD billion)12.115.416.716.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.613.1-13.4-3.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)2.627.28.8-1.9-  
International Reserves (USD)2.53.23.43.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.625.327.828.6-  

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate28.640.01 %Mar 11
Stock Market0.30.0 %Mar 11

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