Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

October 23, 2018

Available data for the third quarter suggests the economy continued expanding at the similar firm pace seen in the previous quarter. In annual terms, retail sales grew again in August from the previous month, albeit at a moderate pace, indicating healthy household spending, which has also been supported by a tight labor market and strengthening wages. The industrial sector also picked up from the previous month, thanks to an upturn in manufacturing output. Survey-based data for September indicates brighter prospects: Consumer confidence entered positive territory for the first time in a year and business sentiment also climbed. The country’s 2019 EUR 11.3 billion budget, approved by the government on 26 September, will target a surplus of 0.5% while imposing no changes on the tax front. Tight fiscal management and a reduction in private sector debt, while maintaining strong growth, prompted Fitch to upgrade the economy’s credit rating from A+ to AA- on 5 October, which should aid a further improvement in economic prospects.

Estonia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to continue growing at a healthy pace next year, although slightly decelerating from the previous year. Growth should be supported by a marked acceleration in fixed investment growth, thanks to strong capital inflows from EU cohesion funds, and solid private consumption, buoyed by tight labor market conditions. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

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Estonia Facts

Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Nov 15
Stock Market1,188-0.38 %Nov 15

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