Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

December 20, 2018

Growth accelerated in Q3 expanding at the fastest pace this year so far on the back of solid domestic demand dynamics. Fixed investment rebounded after two consecutive quarters of contraction and rose robustly in Q3, propped up by a rapidly expanding construction sector. Furthermore, private consumption metrics remained strong in Q3, despite weakening somewhat from the previous quarter against the backdrop of intensifying inflationary pressures and slightly higher unemployment. On the external front, conditions were more challenging: Export growth tanked in Q3, largely due to near-stagnant goods exports amid a wider deceleration in the EU. Meanwhile, incoming data signals softer Q4 activity: Falling retail sales and weak industrial output growth in October reflected a marked deterioration in both business and consumer sentiment, although the latter improved slightly in November. On 13 December, the Estonian parliament approved the 2019 budget which will be 6.1% larger than in 2018. Government debt is still expected to fall and no changes to the taxation system are currently on the horizon.

Estonia Economic Growth

Growth is seen losing some momentum going forward, but it should remain healthy nevertheless, thanks to solid domestic demand. In 2019, tightening labor market conditions will support healthy private consumption growth, while sustained capital inflows from EU cohesion funds should prop up investment activity. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2020.

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Estonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 21
Stock Market1,225-0.38 %Jan 21

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