Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

August 28, 2018

The economy appears to have lost some growth momentum in the second quarter, as suggested by available economic indicators. Industrial production decelerated to a two-year low in Q2, amid a slowdown in manufacturing output, signalling that economic activity likely went through a softer patch in the quarter. Meanwhile, weak retail sales reflected a build-up in inflationary pressures throughout Q2. Nevertheless, labor market conditions continued to tighten in the second quarter: Unemployment fell to a 11-year low, and, coupled with higher wages, likely shielded household spending. On the external front, solid export growth carried over into Q2, helped by robust demand from Estonia’s largest trading partners—Finland and Latvia.

Estonia Economic Growth

Looking ahead, although the economy’s pace of expansion is seen moderating this year, growth should remain healthy. Solid domestic demand is set to support economic activity, which should be bolstered by robust fixed investment growth and elevated capital inflows from EU cohesion funds. In addition, a more competitive labor market and the projected easing of inflationary pressures should prop up household spending. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.5% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2019.

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Estonia Facts

Exchange Rate1.180.65 %Sep 20
Stock Market1,218-0.38 %Sep 20

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