Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

February 26, 2019

Growth momentum appears to have been sustained through to the end of 2018, according to available data. Industrial production accelerated in Q4, as robust output growth in the all-important manufacturing sector more than offset tumbling mining production. Meanwhile, strong retail sales growth largely carried over into Q4, likely reflecting upbeat private consumption dynamics as unemployment fell to an over 11-year low in the quarter. Furthermore, the external sector remained resilient in Q4, as solid demand from outside the EU propelled double-digit growth in merchandise exports. Looking ahead, survey-based readings signal a slight loss of momentum in the run-up to March parliamentary elections: Consumer sentiment remained in negative territory, while business confidence dipped to an over two-year low in January.

Estonia Economic Growth

Although growth is seen losing some steam in 2019, it should remain sturdy nonetheless thanks to solid domestic demand. Tightening labor market conditions and easing inflation will support household consumption, while sustained capital inflows from EU cohesion funds should bolster fixed investment growth this year. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

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Estonia Facts

Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Mar 11
Stock Market1,251-0.38 %Mar 11

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